The defense will be better with Zeke

AdamJT13

AdamJT13

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BlindFaith said:
Umm, no.
Click to expand...

So you disagree with what you said earlier?


Just read this, if you have the time. It's quite lengthy, but here's the jist.
http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/...hing-numbers-under-further-review-part-iii-iv

The NFL is not a passing league. It is a quarterback's league. There is a distinct difference here. It's not about filling the air with footballs; if anything, the evidence suggests this is how you lose. It's about giving your quarterback an environment to succeed and then having one that can execute consistently and efficiently. Success happens when a team complements this with a healthy dose of the running game (preferably more than fifty percent). It doesn't even matter how well the running game is working - the key is to just keep handing it off. Likewise, defenses thrive by having the ability to compromise the play of the opposing quarterback and forcing an abandonment of the running game, which is a potent combination.
Click to expand...

I've seen that article before, and some of it is good, but a lot of it is flawed. He has little bits and pieces of relevant information but doesn't know what to do with it. The main problem is that he doesn't take into account the way strategy changes in the fourth quarter depending on whether you are already winning or already losing -- NOT based on whether you have had earlier success rushing or passing. There are other MUCH better analyses out there that actually take game situations (time, score, etc.) into account.

But the part of your post that I bolded is true. As he says in the article, "the yards-per-carry statistic (which essentially measures the effectiveness of your running game) (is) meaningless." Does that sound familiar? It should.

He also says, referring to passer rating and yards per attempt, "The important metrics here for the most part measure how well the ball is thrown, not how often it's thrown." Does that sound familiar? It should.

Then check out the correlation chart at the bottom of the article. Here are a few highlights --

OFFENSE
Average Team Passer Rating 0.6294
Yards/Pass Attempt 0.6099
Yards/Rush Attempt 0.0517

DEFENSE
Average Team Passer Rating -0.6205
Yards/Pass Attempt -0.4233
Yards/Rush Attempt -0.0087


Notice anything about the correlations for the passing stats (.6294, .6099, .6205, .4233) compared with those for the rushing stats (.0517, .0087)? Such as, you know, the passing correlations being big numbers and the rushing correlations being extremely tiny numbers. Now, where have you heard that before?

Or do you suddenly disagree with the article that you just shared and told me to read?
 
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