cowboys5xsbs
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The 5% recovery is just too low.If you fail an onside now the ball is around midfield, so you at least have a chance to stop them without giving up points. Under this, if you fail its basically auto 3 points for the other team. If you have no choice you obviously still go, but it changes the math a lot if you do have a choice.
I'll bet a fair number of teams have a better chance of converting a 4th and 20 than they do an onside kick.If you fail an onside now the ball is around midfield, so you at least have a chance to stop them without giving up points. Under this, if you fail its basically auto 3 points for the other team. If you have no choice you obviously still go, but it changes the math a lot if you do have a choice.