The effects of relying on unreliable people

[xwalker]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

If they didn't draft Gregory they reportedly were going to pick a player at another position.

Picking Gregory didn't cause them to also pick Taco and it didn't cause the Taco pick to be disappointing.

Irvin is a completely different situation. He was free to acquire. No draft pick required.

The draft is about playing the odds (probability of success vs draft capital required to obtain).

Gregory's risk due to weed/emotional issues combined with his top 10 pick type talent results in a probability of success of:
character probability + talent probability.

A very simplistic example:

I'm just putting numbers in for example purposes. I have not tried to actually come up with accurate probability numbers.

I did use the estimated number for the probability of success of a normal 2nd round pick which one study listed as 49% (I rounded it up to 50%).

Gregory
Let's say
Talent=80%
Character=50%

Less talented 2nd round player with clean background check
Talent=50%
Character=80%

In this simple example I'm giving talent and character equal weighting. You can see that 80+50 is equal to 50+80.

Another area where Gregory and Irving differ is in terms of their intelligence and attitude/work-ethic (the non-drug related aspects of their mental makeup).

Gregory is very intelligent. If you listen to an interview of him he is very impressive. One of the most well spoken players on the current roster. He also has a great work-ethic at practice and Marinelli says he is very coachable.

Irving is the opposite. He is lazy and says he does not like football. In an interview he sounds like he has the IQ of a dim witted 5 year old child.

Obviously they were OK with the issues from Irving because he was "free" to acquire.

Gregory's red flag for weed/depression was a big red flag; however, he checked all of the other boxes in terms of positive attributes from both a top 10 type talent perspective and intelligence/work-ethic AND lack of injury issues.

Overall the probability of success for Gregory was similar to an average 2nd round type talent without the drug risks.

IMO teams need a mix of different types of probability combinations for player (i.e. elite talent with character risks or lesser talent with a better character assessment).

Charles Haley was a key part of the last 3 Cowboys Super Bowl teams but on a character risk assessment he was considered a huge risk vs the 2nd round pick they traded to get him.

Moose Johnston was super safe from a character perspective but he was not a top 5 player on those teams and not a Hall of Fame talent at one of the most critical positions like Haley.

Those SB teams had a mix of players like Haley and players like Johnston and various character/talent combinations in between.

I'm fine with taking a chance on Gregory. He was probably a lower risk than injury issue players like Jaylon and Sean Lee who were both 2nd round picks.

 

[snapper]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

Your point is well taken.

However, acquiring talent is a crapshoot and Jerry knows it. Sometimes he wins and sometimes he loses.

He also knows you can never have enough quality pass rushers -- whether acquired via the draft or through free agency -- and he is always trying to add them to his roster. For that I give him credit.

 

[beware_d-ware]

We drafted Taco largely because of Gregory, but Taco is a separate mistake IMO. If we had hit on TJ Watt, RE would be just fine and dandy and there'd be no talk of Gregory or Robert Quinn.

Also, just a reminder that Will McClay and company wanted TJ Watt, but were overruled by Marinelli. This scouting department is pretty dialed in.

 

[DallasEast]

What do you consider a guy who nearly ended his NFL career in an ATV accident? Unfortunate or unreliable risk taker?

Good question. I would say 'unfortunate' if he did not have much previous time operating an ATV and was just riding one for a once-in-a-lifetime experience. I would say 'unreliable risk taker' if the ATV thing is not an outlier of his recreational time and/or he is a bona fide thrill seeker.

 

[LatinMind]

Even with picking Taco, Gregory and signing Irving. This team is doing just fine. NOw that Dallas is bout to shore up some holes with FA i guess people need something else to complain about.

 

[Bobhaze]

Had we parted ways with Gregory would we not have to draft his replacement?

True. But the point here is to not hang on to guys who burn you....while good players who could have been acquired aren’t because we’re still counting on our 2015 second rounder who was never reliable to begin with.

 

[Doomsday101]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

Been saying this for a while, when people say it is not costing the Cowboys because the player is not getting paid they fail to get the fact it cost us because we are forced to look outside via FA or the draft to find a player to take that position instead of maybe addressing other positions. If in Gregory case it was a 1 time thing where he got in trouble missed 4 game then no more issue I would say nothing but when it is continual it is a big problem and alters how the team must address the DE spot

 

[Doomsday101]

True. But the point here is to not hang on to guys who burn you....while good players who could have been acquired aren’t because we’re still counting on our 2015 second rounder who was never reliable to begin with.

While Dallas will need to find a replacement it also puts us behind in trying to address other needs.

 

[Reality]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

I have been saying this for years for players with off-field issues as well as on-field injuries.

I agree that all players deserve second or even third chances in some cases, but eventually you have to accept the player's potential is not worth the risk of them tying up a roster spot that could disappear at any moment, especially when you need them most.

 

[ItzKelz]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

No since in crying over spilled milk. They took a chance on talented players with off the field issues. Taco IMO was drafted to replace DLaw and we know what happened there. Robert Quinn is someone that we are trying to acquire and hopefully it turns out well. What has happened has happened....lets move forward and get this 6th ring in 2019.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Don't give up on Taco yet, plenty of DL take time to develop.

I agree. I'm going to judge the Taco pick after this season.

 

[DHCBF66]

True. But the point here is to not hang on to guys who burn you....while good players who could have been acquired aren’t because we’re still counting on our 2015 second rounder who was never reliable to begin with.

They weren't relying on Gregory, hence the Taco pick. Gregory did not take up a roster spot while suspended, he did not cost anything against the cap because he wasn't getting paid. Same goes for Irving. Irving wasn't even a draft pick, we signed him off the Cheifs roster for peanuts and when he did play he was a beast. Taco was drafted because they did not rely on Gregory, Irving was a hopeful that did not work out but had no bearing on the draft.

 

[zerofill]

Irving was picked up off a practice squad and we never gave him a big contract. Gregory was a gamble with a 2nd round pick - so was Smith but nobody is complaining about that. Taco was just a bad pick. Wasted a 1st rounder on a bad player.

I think between Smith & Gregory... We shoulds have learned to draft the physically hurt... Stay away from the mentally hurt. If they had to cut Smith's leg off... He still had better chance of growing a new one then Gregory does of staying on the field.

 

[fansince68]

OK...So if Jeffrey Simmons is available at pick 58 we don't draft him? Hummm (rubbing my chin)

 

[Whyjerry]

Another good post. The bigger issue for Dallas has been that these unreliable guys are very talented. Look at McClain. A complete beast that should have worn a gold jacket. Instead he is finished at the same age he should be peaking. These guys are so good they are hard to replace. I think Dallas is at the point where the roster is strong and they should only look at talented character guys to round it out. They don’t need to take risks. Especially expensive risks.

 

[Whyjerry]

OK...So if Jeffrey Simmons is available at pick 58 we don't draft him? Hummm (rubbing my chin)

Pass! McDowell is the only risk worth taking right now. This team is ready to win. Don’t need culture killers.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I agree overall, but if TJ Watt was the pick instead of Taco this topic would have less sting.

That really is the problem. I think the large majority of the Fan Base wanted Watt but thought he would be gone by the time our pick rolled in. When he was there and we passed, a lot of people hated that but when the pick was Charlton, who many believe was a 2nd round pick, but was being artificially pushed up because of the lack of quality DEs vs need, that made it even worse.

I agree.

 

[xwalker]

Good question. I would say 'unfortunate' if he did not have much previous time operating an ATV and was just riding one for a once-in-a-lifetime experience. I would say 'unreliable risk taker' if the ATV thing is not an outlier of his recreational time and/or he is a bona fide thrill seeker.

Yes, many people just jump on somebody else's ATV for some quick fun not realizing the extent of the danger.

Some people buy them without any experience riding them.

It also doesn't "seem" like you need a helmet just for joy riding but that is a terrible misconception.

Just riding slow but hitting your head on a low hanging tree branch can cause significant injuries without a helmet.

It reminds me of how many people think a scooter(moped) is much safer to ride on the street than a real motorcycle. In reality it's more dangerous because it is slower and less maneuverable in traffic.

 

[Kaiser]

Look at McClain. A complete beast that should have worn a gold jacket. Instead he is finished at the same age he should be peaking. These guys are so good they are hard to replace. I think Dallas is at the point where the roster is strong and they should only look at talented character guys to round it out. They don’t need to take risks. Especially expensive risks.

Yes, lets look at Rolando McClain because it proves the opposite point you are trying to make.

McClain was acquired in exchange for moving a draft pick from the 6th round down to the 7th round. He had a good season in 2015 for 2.6 Million in salary and an OK one in 2016 for 1.7 Million in salary. He cost almost nothing and performed way above his salary level.

Unless you mean Terrell McClain, which makes your point even worse.

 

[Doomsday101]

They weren't relying on Gregory, hence the Taco pick. Gregory did not take up a roster spot while suspended, he did not cost anything against the cap because he wasn't getting paid. Same goes for Irving. Irving wasn't even a draft pick, we signed him off the Cheifs roster for peanuts and when he did play he was a beast. Taco was drafted because they did not rely on Gregory, Irving was a hopeful that did not work out but had no bearing on the draft.

it cost you in terms of having to fill the same position once again. it is not just money it is using resources for the same position that you just got through drafting. I will take a guy with less talent who will be out there 16 games over a guy that I don't know from 1 year to the next or 1 game to the next if he will fail a drug test and be out. Giving Gregory another chance I get but Dallas has given many chances and I think are foolish to continue to do the same thing over and over yet expecting the outcome to be different. Gregory just can't be counted on and I really think it is time to move on