Of course but there’s a reason why most teams pay Market Price for a Franchise QB even if he’s not Elite. Your thoughts on why?
My premise is that free agent QBs are overpriced relative to their level of play and it's relevance to victory.
But your question made me take the issue more seriously.
I could just say that "they're making a mistake". And there is much to be said for that. People are bad at game theory. And with the QB being pivotal to the majority of offensive plays, it would be natural to overestimate their importance to victory.
What I observe is that guys who cost nothing often play pretty damn well *when given the chance*. They're often not given the chance because people who paid big for a QB have to make good on that sunk cost. Gotta give SF props for just moving on from Lance and to Purdy.
But looking at the NFL realistically as a business, maximizing player talent with cap dollars is not really the goal anyway. It's making money as a sports entertainment business. More entertainment to be had in a few stars than a bunch of no names. Better stories. You're not going to follow 50+ players. The soap opera will be about a handful, if that. Maybe market a few like a boy band. Hot Boyz!
The NFL has designed the game around the QB. That's where the drama is. That's where, win or lose the most *dramatic* plays are, the ones that make the highlite reel.
The "face of the franchise" is generally the QB. So you invest in that face. QB value relative to winning championships is probably less than QB value relative to making money. It shouldn't be surprising that QBs are valued more in line with their entertainment value than their win probability added.