The JJ "question" : my answer.

[dwmyers]

It's impossible to analyze what JJ has done without (at least) a table of 19 running backs.. in my case I used 38, the starter of every BP team and the best RB backup of every team. The table also includes an analysis of what the average starting running back for BP actually is.

The analysis is on my web pages.

http://home.comcast.net/~dwm042/rbtable.htm

I'll be driving tomorrow morning until I reach my relatives near Shreveport. If you're wanting any kind of argument from me, there won't be one until I get back from Christmas.

But have fun, and Happy Holidays!

David.

 

[theogt]

If Julius was performing like he did in the first 5-6 weeks of the season no one would be complaining. Over the last 9 games (excluding the one run against New Orleans), Julius has averaged 3.2 YPA. That's a remarkably low performance, even compared Parcell's horrid history with RBs.

 

[stealth]

nice work neat to see all that

julius sucks!

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Great work, David.

Parcells has come out and said it plain as day: That sometimes he wants to run the ball for reasons that have nothing to do with making huge gains, as crazy as that sounds. There are times when other teams are scheming to stop the run, and Parcells does it anyway. Why? To hold the ball, shorten the game, and rest his defense. He said pretty clearly that sometimes it's not how much you gain per rush, but the number of times you rush.

But I guess by looking at those numbers, some would conclude that OJ Anderson sucked, too.

 

[MONT17]

u lost me when I saw EDDIE GEORGEs name as a "backup"!!! quick question about your research I guess in the defense of JuJo... does the difference in MB3 and JuJo's YPC and # of carries compare to any successful BP season?

 

[theogt]

Great work, David.

Parcells has come out and said it plain as day: That sometimes he wants to run the ball for reasons that have nothing to do with making huge gains, as crazy as that sounds. There are times when other teams are scheming to stop the run, and Parcells does it anyway. Why? To hold the ball, shorten the game, and rest his defense. He said pretty clearly that sometimes it's not how much you gain per rush, but the number of times you rush.

But I guess by looking at those numbers, some would conclude that OJ Anderson sucked, too.

For the thousandth time, it's not because of the playcalling. It's the lack of vision, it's the lack of ability to wiggle through tight spots, it's the lack of running hard to break the shoe-string tackle.

When a run play is called, and Julius fails to bounce outside when the open field is just screaming bloody murder for him to do so, it has nothing to do with the play call. It has nothing to do with wanting to control the clock. It has everything to do with inability to see the hole and exploit it.

 

[DipChit]

Well I imagine Curtis Martin in '96 might be the best evidence one could provide for this side of the argument. A Super Bowl team and CM only averaged 3.6 YPC.

But it would be worth pointing out that of the only 4 games that year where he averaged 4.0 or more, 3 were during the stretch run.. including against 2 teams that had stuffed him earlier in the year.

So even at that it means when push started coming to shove he was producing. If most all JJ's chumpy games were early on and now he were turning it up a notch we wouldnt be having this debate. Unfortunately thats not how it's shaking down.

So like just about any other player at any other position it kind of comes down to.. what have you done for me lately. Not 2 months ago or 2 years ago.

 

[dallasfaniac]

Its actually kind of funny.

Each week since like week 6, we've had tons of Barber for starter threads. After New Orleans we didn't see a single one. Now that Barber put up a whopping 69 yards last week we once again saw a bunch of those threads.

Most fans just wanted to see Julius stay healthy a whole season. Now that he has so far (knocking on wood), while putting up more than 1000 yards, they want to see the backup.

The list of second stringers putting up good stats in reserve is pretty long.


A couple stats for those interested.
3rd down carries for Jones this year: 3 or 1% of his total rushes.
3rd down carries for Barber this year: 29 or 24% of his total rushes.

 

[theogt]

Its actually kind of funny.

Each week since like week 6, we've had tons of Barber for starter threads. After New Orleans we didn't see a single one. Now that Barber put up a whopping 69 yards last week we once again saw a bunch of those threads.

Most fans just wanted to see Julius stay healthy a whole season. Now that he has so far (knocking on wood), while putting up more than 1000 yards, they want to see the backup.

The list of second stringers putting up good stats in reserve is pretty long.


A couple stats for those interested.
3rd down carries for Jones this year: 3 or 1% of his total rushes.
3rd down carries for Barber this year: 29 or 24% of his total rushes.

Barber has better stats on first down, second down, third down, first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, and fourth quarter. Any way you slice it, cut it, spin it, or shade it Barber has outperformed Julius this season by a considerable margin.

 

[percyhoward]

Its actually kind of funny. A couple stats for those interested.
3rd down carries for Jones this year: 3 or 1% of his total rushes.
3rd down carries for Barber this year: 29 or 24% of his total rushes.

You'd better dig a little deeper.

Barber has 29 3rd down rushes, but only 12 of them are 3rd and 3 or more. The other 17 are on 3rd and 2, when defenses are geared to stop the run.

If anything, Barber's 3rd down rushes should actually hurt his average.


Also, to the original post, Parcells' running game has never finished in the top 10 in yards per rush. I think people (if they're like me) are noticing how much better MB3 is running in comparison to JJ.

 

[2233boys]

Its actually kind of funny.

Each week since like week 6, we've had tons of Barber for starter threads. After New Orleans we didn't see a single one. Now that Barber put up a whopping 69 yards last week we once again saw a bunch of those threads.

Most fans just wanted to see Julius stay healthy a whole season. Now that he has so far (knocking on wood), while putting up more than 1000 yards, they want to see the backup.

The list of second stringers putting up good stats in reserve is pretty long.


A couple stats for those interested.
3rd down carries for Jones this year: 3 or 1% of his total rushes.
3rd down carries for Barber this year: 29 or 24% of his total rushes.

I was clamoring for Barber before, during and after that game.

 

[Chuck 54]

Barber's carries and involvement have increased while he's hot...they may continue to increase...but anyone calling for a change in the starter at this point in the season is whistling in the wind...won't happen.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it....you don't mess with team chemistry, and JJ's value to the offense jumped dramatically after that last long TD run...now teams are reminded that he can take it the distance, now they continue to play the run and angles a certain way...that only helps JJ and MBIII, imo.

 

[LD Fan]

For the thousandth time, it's not because of the playcalling. It's the lack of vision, it's the lack of ability to wiggle through tight spots, it's the lack of running hard to break the shoe-string tackle.

When a run play is called, and Julius fails to bounce outside when the open field is just screaming bloody murder for him to do so, it has nothing to do with the play call. It has nothing to do with wanting to control the clock. It has everything to do with inability to see the hole and exploit it.

ding ding ding.....couldn't have said it any better.

 

[BulletBob]

Barber's carries and involvement have increased while he's hot...they may continue to increase...but anyone calling for a change in the starter at this point in the season is whistling in the wind...won't happen.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it....you don't mess with team chemistry, and JJ's value to the offense jumped dramatically after that last long TD run...now teams are reminded that he can take it the distance, now they continue to play the run and angles a certain way...that only helps JJ and MBIII, imo.

Wow, great point, Wayne. I agree completely.

We have a very effective 2-headed monster.

Our offense is Number 1 in the NFL in scoring, and people are complaining about our running game.

You guys are like the little old Italian lady who walks around with a 5 lb ham under one arm, and complains that she has no loaf of bread under the other arm to make a ham sandwich.

Get a bit of frickin' perspective.

And, oh yeah - Merry Christmas.



**Edit** For the record, I'm as guilty as anyone of complaining!

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

For the thousandth time, it's not because of the playcalling. It's the lack of vision, it's the lack of ability to wiggle through tight spots, it's the lack of running hard to break the shoe-string tackle.

When a run play is called, and Julius fails to bounce outside when the open field is just screaming bloody murder for him to do so, it has nothing to do with the play call. It has nothing to do with wanting to control the clock. It has everything to do with inability to see the hole and exploit it.

Then explain to me why he was so productive in cutting back and missing tackles in his first two years, when he was healthy?

IMO that was him running on pure instinct and that would include vision.

Now I don't think it is all Bill.

I think Julius just needs to get his head on straight. I think he is so set in trying to get positive yards opposed to negative yards that he will go forward into a pile instead of trying to dance around or cut.

I seem to recall bill talking about this when Julius was in his first or second year. That sometimes a back has to just plow forward instead of trying to make a move and lose yardage.

We have all seen him make cuts and moves in the past, so it is not like it is his vision or his instinct coming in the last two years.

Now the idea of not changing the system right now is good IMO. It is working as a combo, JJ has his 1K yards, Barber is in double digit TDs so I don't see a need to try to change it and ruin a combo that is working at this time.

 

[superpunk]

Sorry, David. I'm a huge Julius fan, but that just doesn't do it for me, not over these past 9 games. I did a breakdown myself, because if Julius was not losing yardage, and getting 3 yards just about every down, I can live with that. It's not impressive, but yes, it's what Parcells wants.

Here's how Julius breaks down over that span.

Runs of no gain or negative yardage - 30
Gains of 1 yard - 13
Gains of 2 yards - 18
Gains of 3 yards - 27
Gains of 4 yards - 13
Gains of 5 yards - 13
Gains of 6-10 yards - 16
Gains of 11-20 yards - 9
Gains of 20+ yards 1

You can see for yourself where my problem with him lies. The mantra has been that he's doing what Parcells wants him to. Not losing yardage, not stringing it out for an extra cut. That's just not true. He is losing yardage, pretty consistently, and he's not doing what Parcells wants him to.

 

[LD Fan]

Then explain to me why he was so productive in cutting back and missing tackles in his first two years, when he was healthy?

IMO that was him running on pure instinct and that would include vision.

Now I don't think it is all Bill.

I think Julius just needs to get his head on straight. I think he is so set in trying to get positive yards opposed to negative yards that he will go forward into a pile instead of trying to dance around or cut.

I seem to recall bill talking about this when Julius was in his first or second year. That sometimes a back has to just plow forward instead of trying to make a move and lose yardage.

We have all seen him make cuts and moves in the past, so it is not like it is his vision or his instinct coming in the last two years.

Now the idea of not changing the system right now is good IMO. It is working as a combo, JJ has his 1K yards, Barber is in double digit TDs so I don't see a need to try to change it and ruin a combo that is working at this time.

I agree (I think). I've said many times that I think Parcells has hurt Jone's by over coaching him. Parcells is a good coach but he isn't perfect. A player with Jones running style (fast, easily tackled) will never be very successful without the ability to use some of his instincts to get to open space. He may just be a square peg in parcells round hole.

 

[Jarv]

Didn't BP mention this week that he is going to allow JJ a little more creative freedom in his running game this week ?

Would that imply he has been holding him back just a bit ?

Speculation maybe, but why else would BP say that ?

It will be interesting to see if JJ's performance is different this week.

 

[superpunk]

Didn't BP mention this week that he is going to allow JJ a little more creative freedom in his running game this week ?

Would that imply he has been holding him back just a bit ?

Speculation maybe, but why else would BP say that ?

It will be interesting to see if JJ's performance is different this week.

I have not seen that. But if he did say it, Julius' peformance against a terrible run defense this week should tell us something, if Parcells is going to change it up a bit.

 

[LD Fan]

Didn't BP mention this week that he is going to allow JJ a little more creative freedom in his running game this week ?

Would that imply he has been holding him back just a bit ?

Speculation maybe, but why else would BP say that ?

It will be interesting to see if JJ's performance is different this week.

I'm not sure it would be that easy. So how would that actually happen....would he say OK Julius, "after harping at you for the last 3 years to plow into the pile I want you to.....in that nanosecond you have to decide.....cut to daylight?" I'm not sure a RB can change their style that easily.