The Most Useless Stats

[percyhoward]

let me also take this opportunity to say you are one of the best researchers, stats guys not ONLY on this board but one of the best ive had teh pleasure of reading. bar none. very appreciated. sadly, no matter the stats a coach thinks he might win with, if your RB is running all over the defense, stick with it. .

Thanks, and Go Cowboys.

 

[Don Corleone]

TOP is good as long as you score 6 instead of 3.

 

[CouchCoach]

They had 3 successful drives, that is it 0- for the whole game - our defense did well most of the game

Catch some TD passes and your argument holds no water. TOP is very big and I believe would have worn the Giants down at the end had we made a couple TD catches.

Thanks for making my point, it's what they do with ball when they have it, not how long they have it. We didn't score TDs when we had the opportunity so it's a 55 gallon drum of water, full to the brim.

PPP, Points Per Possession is a lot more important than TOP. It's not that TOP doesn't matter at all, it's just not an indicator of the winner as it once was. And sure wasn't for us and a bunch of other teams.

 

[erod]

Don't kid yourself. Every NFL team knows what passer rating differential is, knows where they ranked according to that metric, and makes moves that they think will improve that ranking.

Every team that knows what it' s doing, that is.

Troy's ratings were mediocre. Worked out ok.

 

[percyhoward]

Troy's ratings were mediocre. Worked out ok.

Troy's passer ratings were hardly mediocre. His average rank over his 5 best seasons was 4th. Only Steve Young's were better over that time period.

 

[erod]

Troy's passer ratings were hardly mediocre. His average rank over his 5 best seasons was 4th. Only Steve Young's were better over that time period.

Throw a swing pass to a RB who goes 90 yards, and you look like Johnny Unitas.

Throw a Hail Mary before halftime and get intercepted in the end zone, and get a few drops, and you look like Matt Cassel.

Jeff George was a world beater.

 

[percyhoward]

Throw a swing pass to a RB who goes 90 yards, and you look like Johnny Unitas.

Throw a Hail Mary before halftime and get intercepted in the end zone, and get a few drops, and you look like Matt Cassel.

That's not about passer rating -- it's about how tiny samples can mislead. Over the course of a season, and especially multiple seasons, those things even out. That's why the guys with the most top 10 seasons in passer rating are all Hall of Famers.

Peyton Manning (15) 1999-2010, 2012-14
Tom Brady (13) 2001-07, 09-12, 2014-15
Joe Montana (12) 1980-85, 87-90, 93-94
Fran Tarkenton (11) 1964, 67-70, 72-77
Dan Marino (11) 1983-87, 90-92, 94-96
Sammy Baugh (10) 1937, 40-45, 47-49
Johnny Unitas (10) 1956-60, 63-67
Drew Brees (10) 2004-06, 08-09, 11-15
Brett Favre (10) 1992, 94-97, 2001, 03, 04, 07, 09

And no, Jeff George was not a world beater.

Avg rank in passer rating
5 best seasons
Aikman 4th
George 8th

7 best seasons
Aikman 6th
George 11th

 

[erod]

That's not about passer rating -- it's about how tiny samples can mislead. Over the course of a season, and especially multiple seasons, those things even out. That's why the guys with the most top 10 seasons in passer rating are all Hall of Famers.

Peyton Manning (15) 1999-2010, 2012-14
Tom Brady (13) 2001-07, 09-12, 2014-15
Joe Montana (12) 1980-85, 87-90, 93-94
Fran Tarkenton (11) 1964, 67-70, 72-77
Dan Marino (11) 1983-87, 90-92, 94-96
Sammy Baugh (10) 1937, 40-45, 47-49
Johnny Unitas (10) 1956-60, 63-67
Drew Brees (10) 2004-06, 08-09, 11-15
Brett Favre (10) 1992, 94-97, 2001, 03, 04, 07, 09

And no, Jeff George was not a world beater.

Avg rank in passer rating
5 best seasons
Aikman 4th
George 8th

7 best seasons
Aikman 6th
George 11th

You just proved my point on George.

 

[percyhoward]

You just proved my point on George.

You said passer rating made him into a world beater. I showed you that in his best seasons, an average of 10 quarterbacks were better than he was.

 

[erod]

You said passer rating made him into a world beater. I showed you that in his best seasons, an average of 10 quarterbacks were better than he was.

You don't understand hyperbole for effect.

George was terrible. His numbers said otherwise.

 

[TheDude]

Coming from a stat guy, I cant say I totally agree. But Stats are generally ex-post. i.e. you arent going to dial 1-800 QB to improve the passer efficiency mid-year

 

[percyhoward]

George was terrible. His numbers said otherwise.

George may have been a terrible waste of natural talent, but was far from a terrible QB.

 

[percyhoward]

Coming from a stat guy, I cant say I totally agree. But Stats are generally ex-post. i.e. you arent going to dial 1-800 QB to improve the passer efficiency mid-year

Stats can be used as a consolation prize by losers, but the best use of stats is to understand why the loss (or win) happened.

In that sense, stats really are for losers, because they can help losers understand why they lost.

 

[Diehardblues]

The only stats that generally translate are turnovers and 3rd down percentage both ways.

The rest are for fantasy football dorks.

True. Redzone scoring is a critical stat. NY was 3 for 3.

 

[dfense]

The team has to finish drives with TD's. It shouldn't have been close but settling for FG's cost them

Exactly. Every other excuse about players, scheme or effort are irrelevant. They didn't finish.

 

[Diehardblues]

Thanks for making my point, it's what they do with ball when they have it, not how long they have it. We didn't score TDs when we had the opportunity so it's a 55 gallon drum of water, full to the brim.

PPP, Points Per Possession is a lot more important than TOP. It's not that TOP doesn't matter at all, it's just not an indicator of the winner as it once was. And sure wasn't for us and a bunch of other teams.

Stats are like any factual data they provide evidence when arguing a position or looking for symptoms to diagnose a problem and solution. If the Cowboys would have won these stats would have been more supportive.

Since we lost the stats which were more glaring symptoms contributing to the loss were Redzone scoring(NY soundly more successful ) rushing yards ( NY out gained us).

For the Cowboys Dez certainly needs more than 1 catch. 45 passing attempts too many for a Rookie QB with a team focused on dominating on the ground .

And the biggest eye test was the 4th qtr. NY crammed the ball down our throat on the ground. You know like we did in 2014. Gaping holes up the middle of our defense as they forced their will on us. Another 4th qtr lead givin up by our defense.

Biggest shock for me was after they gained 11 yards up our gut on 3rd and 12 they didn't go ahead and put us out of our misery instead punting giving us one last gasp possession . Why didn't they believe they could gain one yard on 4th down which they only gained about 15 yards on the punt. Something tells me if Romo was in there they go for it on 4th down.

This loss was too much of a reminder from last year. A continuation if you will. Sad, on a day where Dak provided us more hope for the future on the same ole Cowboys. Looks like we saw we'll need Dak as Romo has done this era to rescue a defense which can't hold on or close out 4th qtr leads. Same ole Cowboys.

 

[MileyDancer]

The team has to finish drives with TD's. It shouldn't have been close but settling for FG's cost them

Well, that's what happens when your head coach still sleeps with a night light on.

 

[windward]

How 'bout this one: Points per play

We ran 30 plays in the first two drives... 6 points... smh
The Giants ran 7 plays in two drives and scored 7 points. What good is TOP if you don't get in the endzone?

Points per play is flawed.

Which defense is better?

Defense A that allows 3 points on 3 plays after a given drive?

Or Defense B that allows 3 points on a 10 play drive?

 

[WeaponX]

The current coaching staff can turn almost any statistic on its head. By trying to keep games close regardless of whether you are ahead or behind, this staff has had more history defying losses than any team in memory.

For example: I can't recall or even imagine two players forgetting to run out of bounds in the same series with the game on the line with no time outs and a minute or less to play.

Oddly enough that happened in Detroit about 15 minutes after our game with Eric Ebron and Marvin Jones. Of course, Detroit still had timeouts to burn so they made out ok

 

[willia451]

TL;DR