The Myth of the Bell Cow

[Bleu Star]

Are you really denying that passing and pass defense wins in this league?

Passing may win but Romo has proven that, while an incredible talent, he does not provide consistently positive outcomes when the the game has to be regularly placed upon his shoulders.

 

[Broges74]

Wow! One whole team. With a running QB. I'll give you they are the exception to the rule as their run sets up their pass. It's still their defense along with a timely offense which makes them dangerous. They are reminiscent of the Ravens a ways back. Or Tampa.

Give us all the teams over 20 years and I'll be impressed.

Name the SB winners since the Blount rule and give us the data on them.

Putting up one team is at best not representative of the league.

Are you really denying that passing and pass defense wins in this league?

What wins in this league is doing something very well on offense and having a good defense. Does not matter what that something on offense is.

 

[Nightman]

The first sentence proved my point...

What point?? That a super improved running game had little impact on the improved D?? It was going to happen anyways.

Some improvement was expected just by staying healthy, but the running game also helped immensely.

And they still lost Lee, Claiborne, Durant and DLaw. Melton, Brent and Spencer were slow to recover.

 

[gmoney112]

What point?? That a super improved running game had little impact on the improved D?? It was going to happen anyways.

Some improvement was expected just by staying healthy, but the running game also helped immensely.

And they still lost Lee, Claiborne, Durant and DLaw. Melton, Brent and Spencer were slow to recover.

Yup. That point.

 

[Nightman]

What wins in this league is doing something very well on offense and having a good defense. Does not matter what that something on offense is.

I've never understood how people can say "how" a team gets its yards and points is important.

 

[jobberone]

Passing may win but Romo has proven that, while an incredible talent, he does not provide consistently positive outcomes when the the game has to be regularly placed upon his shoulders.

Couldn't agree more. Look at Marino or Fouts. You need a running game. An effective one.

 

[Nightman]

The first sentence proved my point...



Don't know what the first sentence has to do with anything.

Pretty much everyone saw after the 2013 debacle on defense, that even an "average" defense and we'd make the playoffs.

Which is exactly what happened. The running game obviously helped, as did the improvement on the OL, as improving on the worst defense in the NFL. That's the point.

You are so right. It was just random. Not related at all.

 

[jobberone]

What wins in this league is doing something very well on offense and having a good defense. Does not matter what that something on offense is.

You need a good or better passing game along with a good pass defense. You need an effective run game. You need to score 25+ PPG and give up 17 or less. The more you score the more cushion you have to give up.

You have to factor in TOs, field position, STs, schemes with downs and FP and all the rest that goes with the modern game.

There is only one simple stat and that is wins and losses. All the above gets you to the wins.

No one is saying running is not important.

 

[gmoney112]

You are so right. It was just random. Not related at all.

You do see that I was quoting Bat. The original point was his assertion that a run game was "primarily" the reason why the defense improved. Haha, then I make a point how the defense was actually quite a bit better, and both you guys admit that the defense HAD to improve because it was the worst in the league.

Therefore, running game =/ primary reason why defense got better. That was the entire point I was making.

His point about defense being okay or championship caliber or whatever didn't really have much to do with anything we were discussing. Not hatin' but it just didn't.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Our offense has consistently led us to 8-8 for several years until our focus shifted to a more balanced strategy and an increased focus on drafting to run the ball. Running the ball and controlling the clock is what finally elevated us out of the depths of hell (AKA 8-8 every year..) to dominance and a 12-4 record to go along with it.

Probably because offense isn't the only thing to a football team.

Stop being so simple. Do you understand how football works? How a team works?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Wow! One whole team. With a running QB. I'll give you they are the exception to the rule as their run sets up their pass. It's still their defense along with a timely offense which makes them dangerous. They are reminiscent of the Ravens a ways back. Or Tampa.

Give us all the teams over 20 years and I'll be impressed.

Name the SB winners since the Blount rule and give us the data on them.

Putting up one team is at best not representative of the league.

Are you really denying that passing and pass defense wins in this league?

Yes, if you have a historically great defense....a lot of normal trends don't apply to you. @xwalker should know better.

 

[BAT]

The first sentence proved my point...



Don't know what the first sentence has to do with anything.

Pretty much everyone saw after the 2013 debacle on defense, that even an "average" defense and we'd make the playoffs.

Which is exactly what happened. The running game obviously helped, as did the improvement on the OL, as improving on the worst defense in the NFL. That's the point.

If the first sentence was too confusing then focus on the last 2 sentences. I have never stated that the historic records set by the offense was the ONLY reason for the success in 2015, but it was one of the most instrumental.

 

[gmoney112]

If the first sentence was too confusing then focus on the last 2 sentences. I have never stated that the historic records set by the offense was the ONLY reason for the success in 2015, but it was one of the most instrumental.

Not confusing at all. Just completely irrelevant.

But feel free to keep pounding that square peg into the round hole.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Ok.... how about there have been 10 seasons since 1970 where the NFL ypc > 4.1. 9 of those have been since 2002. Also, the chart did not include seasons > 2012. I suspect with Dallas. Philly and Seattle running the ball like they have, the tenths continue to stack up over the last 2 seasons.

It is a statistically significant variance.

When I see those numbers I think immediately think of two reasons why the YPC have creeped up over the last few seasons:

1. More "running" QB's in the league. Typically "running" are poor passers, but usually have strong YPC averages, which of course positively influences the overall YPC average of the league.
2. The heavy passing nature of the league forces many defenses to play in the "nickel" (like Dallas) or some other defense that takes "weight" off the field and puts "speed" on it. The result is when the offense does run the ball, there's not only less "beef" to stop it, the defense is spread out more-so across the field so there are less defenders in the box in order to stop the running game.

In my view that doesn't mean a "renaissance" for the running game across the NFL, but a combination of more QB's that like to run and defenses are picking their "poison" and it's the pass.

Now that being said and an offense is going to become a predictable running team then the defense is going to start respecting that and the YPC will decrease like what we saw over the last quarter of the season with the Cowboys. There were still run heavy and defenses were putting 8-9 men in the box and running a variety of run-blitz to stop the run and consequently the YPC averages for the last quarter of the season were not as high as previously experienced.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

How can anyone talk about the renaissance of the running game when it's national news when a running back goes in the first round?

Or when a team that very much rode a successful 'bell cow' into the playoffs scoffed at paying him 5.6% of the cap.

 

[Broges74]

Running the ball extremely well opens up the passing game and passing the ball very well opens ruining game. The whole concept relies on the defense respecting one or the other to make it easier to accomplish either.

What we did extremely well was run the ball. That opened up Romo to have his most effective season ever. Why change the formula?

Finally. That graph represented RBs only. Sorry I forgot to mention that..

When I see those numbers I think immediately think of two reasons why the YPC have creeped up over the last few seasons:

1. More "running" QB's in the league. Typically "running" are poor passers, but usually have strong YPC averages, which of course positively influences the overall YPC average of the league.
2. The heavy passing nature of the league forces many defenses to play in the "nickel" (like Dallas) or some other defense that takes "weight" off the field and puts "speed" on it. The result is when the offense does run the ball, there's not only less "beef" to stop it, the defense is spread out more-so across the field so there are less defenders in the box in order to stop the running game.

In my view that doesn't mean a "renaissance" for the running game across the NFL, but a combination of more QB's that like to run and defenses are picking their "poison" and it's the pass.

Now that being said and an offense is going to become a predictable running team then the defense is going to start respecting that and the YPC will decrease like what we saw over the last quarter of the season with the Cowboys. There were still run heavy and defenses were putting 8-9 men in the box and running a variety of run-blitz to stop the run and consequently the YPC averages for the last quarter of the season were not as high as previously experienced.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Running the ball extremely well opens up the passing game and passing the ball very well opens ruining game. The whole concept relies on the defense respecting one or the other to make it easier to accomplish both.

What we did extremely well was run the ball. That opened up Romo to having his more effective season ever. Why change the formula?

Finally. That graph represented RBs only. Sorry I forgot to mention that..

OK, even if it includes just RB's my 2nd point still applies.

No one is saying not run the ball.

And the Cowboys have said they aren't going to abandon what they did last season.

 

[DFWJC]

fwiw
I'd say 1300---1400 gets you more into bell cow territory.
1000 yards is no real big deal with 16 games.

 

[Bleu Star]

Probably because offense isn't the only thing to a football team.

Stop being so simple. Do you understand how football works? How a team works?

I got your "simple" in a special place.

The offensive strategy last year was air tight. Improve the defense (which we did) and maintain the same offensive strategy that worked wonders with a bell cow RB (remains to be seen). That, Mr Simple, is the return road to the elusive Super Bowl.

 

[Broges74]

OK, even if it includes just RB's my 2nd point still applies.

No one is saying not run the ball.

And the Cowboys have said they aren't going to abandon what they did last season.

They might have to abandon the run. It all depends on unproven backs. Oline or not. Guys still have to stay healthy and hit the right holes with authority.

Your 2nd point I have no problem with. I'm saying a 90s style offense can succeed in this league if you run the ball well. We did that last season and we took one heck if a chance not signing Murray nor drafting a rb nor trading for one.