The Myth of the Bell Cow

[Nightman]

The same reasons fans discredit the RB's on the roster, is exactly the same reason I'm excited to see what the run game will do this year. Its too easy to look at the stats above as face value and say negative things. I guess it really depends on an individuals outlook. I'd rather see the glass "half-full" when referring to my favorite team. Not to mention, the Front Office as of late has given no reason to doubt they know better than us "living room coaches". The RB position may be a question mark, but the reason we couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers last year (the defense), thankfully has been addressed better than most could have imagined. So here we are debating whether we think FO is right ab the current runningbacks? I'll keep "trusting the Process."

That being said... let me just mention...All three of these backs were very productive in college and highly regarded.

McFadden was on a crappy team and was met frequently in the back field. Defenses running full speed virtually unblocked leads to numerous injuries.. go figure. Is he washed up? Maybe the injuries have caught up to him.. But I'd be willing to bet that he's ready to prove to everyone of you wrong, now that he has a real offense around him...
Randle was productive in college, was productive in very limited chances the last couple of years.. so Randle will be given every opportunity to produce this year.. So why do people think he wont be productive again? bc he stole underwear?! smh

And Williams.. another guy that has had bad luck with injuries, yet has the skill set to be successful in the NFL.. exp behind the #1 OL in football (and yes, that was a big factor in Murrays success last year)

Bottom line, folks are going to keep knocking the current group of backs bc they haven't shown much... sure glad we didn't give up on Murray two seasons ago when we drafted Randle bc Murray couldn't stay healthy. Opportunity is the name of the game in the NFL. Football stars aren't stars until they're given a chance. I'm not one of those who say "anybody can run behind this OL", but I'm confident the current group of RB's are talented enough to be very good behind the kitchen size holes that our OL will create. They will surprise people and there is a chance we are just as good (if not better) on offense, and the defense is ten times better. So if the RB position is the main focus at this point...This makes me very optimistic for the 2015 season. GO COWBOYS!!

I applaud your optimism but it sounds like you are trying to convince yourself that what you are saying is true.

My plan was to pay Murray. There was no reason to get cheap and change things up now that we are this close.

If Murray walked I wanted Gurley or Coleman but that didn't work out(we did great with BJones and RGregory).

Adrian Peterson is now my biggest hope.

Going into the season with the guys we have right now is a huge risk of wasting a great opportunity. We saw how much a great running game helped Romo and the Defense.

If this group does OK what do we really win, we are already 12m under the cap. But if they struggle we might miss the playoffs or lose a Home game.

I would much rather pay Murray or Peterson the 8-9m than Carr.

 

[xwalker]

No one needs a bell cow. You don't win with a rushing attack that is dominant. You win passing the ball better than your opponent and defending it better. You just need an effective running game to get short yardage and keep the defense at least balanced if not off balance. Both set the other up but the passing game is more important.

Then you need STs to not give up big plays and give you short fields on occasion. Then don't turn the ball over which negates a lot of the above.

Expect 25+ running plays from this team with this OL and passing attack.

Seattle was 27th in pass yards.
Seattle was 15th in pass completion percentage.
Seattle was tied for 22nd in passing TDs.

Seattle was 1st in total rushing yards.
Seattle was 1st in rushing yards/carry
Seattle was 1st in rushing TDs.

 

[xwalker]

These guys have 11 years of NFL service time and more questions than a rookie would have.

And it wasn't just any rookie we wanted to hand the reigns to, it had to be one of the top 3-5 guys.

The probability of success of group A is higher than the probability of success for group B or C.

Group A
McFadden
Randle
Ryan Williams

Group B
Tevin Coleman
udfa RB
udfa RB

Group C
DeMarco Murray
udfa RB
udfa RB

 

[Nightman]

Narrative?? Myth?? These are truths. Emmitt Smith is not a myth or a narrative. Neither was Marshawn Lynch, Tony Dorsett, Jim Brown nor Walter Payton.

A dominant running game, whether by committee or by an individual, is championship proven. The Cowboys have proven that this formula works for THEM. Just because you have preference towards the passing game, you don't have to fabricate fallacies about one being "better" than the other. Neither Tom Brady nor Peyton work for the Cowboys.

As for what is best for Romo, is it a coincidence that he had his BEST season, MVP worthy, when complemented by the most dominant rushing attack in the league?

And our elite OL is more effective, only elite, when run blocking and above average in pass protection. Your argument that Cowboys should return to its pass heavy philosophy has no support, never mind merit.

A lot of people around here are convinced that the only thing that matters is how efficiently you pass and how well you defend the pass.

As if all the other parts of the game are meaningless. Time of possession, the running game, turnovers, coaching, penalties and special teams all take a back seat because people have found a stat that shows passing well has a bigger correlation to winning.

I don't think it was a coincidence we went from 8-8 to 12-4 when the running game exploded. It helped take the load off of Romo's shoulders and helped keep the D fresher.

 

[Nightman]

The probability of success of group A is higher than the probability of success for group B or C.

Group A
McFadden
Randle
Ryan Williams

Group B
Tevin Coleman
udfa RB
udfa RB

Group C
DeMarco Murray
udfa RB
udfa RB

Group D
Murray
Randle
RWilliams???Rookie
Dunbar

Total cap hit for 2015= 7.8m

 

[MichaelWinicki]

What you say is true , but here is one fact "Oct 17, 2014 ... DeMarco Murray, averaging 26.5 carries per game, has played a big role in Dallas' surprising 5-1 start"

That's a point of view and not a quantifiable fact... at least not in the sense that you can measure it accurately.

I mean how much success should be credited to the 26.5 carries per game? 100%? 80%? 43.569%?

And how much success would there have been if there had been 19.2 carries per game?

Again, you have a statement and can't quantify it.

Also there's virtually no way the Cowboys would give another back the kind of workload that Murray had in 2015.

 

[BAT]

The Cowboys won a SB Dorsett's first year. He didn't even start until the latter part of the year and didn't hit 1000 yds either. Brown and even Payton are from a different era although the latter fit the Bears fine and was a bellcow. Lynch makes Seattle a better team but they win with a balanced offense and a very good defense.

Romo had a great year because the defense played much better and defenses had to play the run. It wasn't just because Murray ran for 1800. All you have to do is look at other teams that won a SB to see you don't need a dominant run game. Certainly doesn't hurt though.

Cowboys defense was better primarily due to Cowboys league leading run game and TOP. Defense played better because we kept them off the field. And Romo had his best season ever due to dominance in run game. That Cowboys had the most efficient QB in league and most prolific RB, both MVP candidates, speaks to how successful the shift was to a run centric offense and how that offense benefited the defensive improvement. And even with that improvement, the D still could not rush the passer or defend the pass.

And going off topic for a second here, Dorsett may not have started his rookie season due to politics but the Cowboys became a championship team when Dorsett became the starter. Whether you were a fan, player or even a legendary coach, that was obvious. Dorsett was the missing piece on that Cowboys team.

 

[Broges74]

Trend ok although not important.

Not statistically significant on grass. Didn't calculate (nor remember how) any stats suggestive of significance since it doesn't matter if it went up a few tenths. That's over decades.

Ok.... how about there have been 10 seasons since 1970 where the NFL ypc > 4.1. 9 of those have been since 2002. Also, the chart did not include seasons > 2012. I suspect with Dallas. Philly and Seattle running the ball like they have, the tenths continue to stack up over the last 2 seasons.

It is a statistically significant variance.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Exactly. I don't understand why we have to go here again but here goes (again...)

Our offense sputtered along providing us with false hope and 8-8 year after year while attempting to place the game on the shoulders of one Tony Romo. It wasn't until last year, when our focus finally shifted to a more balanced mindset with a greater emphasis on the run and the retirement of the "Tony's shoulders" philosophy, that our offense began to churn and destroy defenses with a clock killing mentality. We need that 25 plus carries per game from a bell cow to be successful. Going back to thinking Romo can go win more games than not is going to place us back closer to 8-8 and false hopes yet again... I don't hope I'm wrong because in my heart of hearts I know I'm right.

Simply not true. Our offense has been consistently very good for years.

 

[Bleu Star]

I don't think it was a coincidence we went from 8-8 to 12-4 when the running game exploded. It helped take the load off of Romo's shoulders and helped keep the D fresher.

If people can't comprehend this correlation or just simply chose to live in denial they can't be helped. It's a waste even trying to explain it yet again.

 

[gmoney112]

Cowboys defense was better primarily due to Cowboys league leading run game and TOP.

No. As has been posted in just about every thread regarding this topic, and posters continue to ignore, the defense played better because they were better in just about every single per drive statistic.

"But... TOP... keeping defense fresh", yes those help. However, the defense was better and it's not even really debatable.

 

[Galian Beast]

Narrative?? Myth?? These are truths. Emmitt Smith is not a myth or a narrative. Neither was Marshawn Lynch, Tony Dorsett, Jim Brown nor Walter Payton.

A dominant running game, whether by committee or by an individual, is championship proven. The Cowboys have proven that this formula works for THEM. Just because you have preference towards the passing game, you don't have to fabricate fallacies about one being "better" than the other. Neither Tom Brady nor Peyton work for the Cowboys.

As for what is best for Romo, is it a coincidence that he had his BEST season, MVP worthy, when complemented by the most dominant rushing attack in the league?

And our elite OL is more effective, only elite, when run blocking and above average in pass protection. Your argument that Cowboys should return to its pass heavy philosophy has no support, never mind merit.

Their is a fallacy in your conclusion that you're failing to realize. One of the biggest problems with people is that they confuse correlation with causation.

Romo has ALWAYs had better years when he has had better support on offense. That is a given. That doesn't necessarily mean that we have to run the ball or pass the ball a certain number of times to be successful.

 

[Bleu Star]

Simply not true. Our offense has been consistently very good for years.

Our offense has consistently led us to 8-8 for several years until our focus shifted to a more balanced strategy and an increased focus on drafting to run the ball. Running the ball and controlling the clock is what finally elevated us out of the depths of hell (AKA 8-8 every year..) to dominance and a 12-4 record to go along with it.

 

[gmoney112]

If people can't comprehend this correlation or just simply chose to live in denial they can't be helped. It's a waste even trying to explain it yet again.

I'm not sure posters that agree with this even pay attention to their favorite team.

Yes, the reason why we went 12-4 was because they gave the ball to DeMarco Murray. Not because we finally got an OL that can compete past a JV level, not because our WR's really found their groove, not because Romo was taking sacks instead of taking chances, not because our defense went from worst in the history of the Dallas Cowboys to average, not because we again were near the tops in the league in Turnovers.

It was because they handed the foosball to a guy named DeMarco. That is the only reason.

 

[BAT]

Their is a fallacy in your conclusion that you're failing to realize. One of the biggest problems with people is that they confuse correlation with causation.

Romo has ALWAYs had better years when he has had better support on offense. That is a given. That doesn't necessarily mean that we have to run the ball or pass the ball a certain number of times to be successful.

LOL, you know where you can stick your fallacy. I tell you what, ask Romo himself what he credits his most efficient season to, heck ask Garrett or Linehan. They have been clear about this from day one.

 

[Nightman]

No. As has been posted in just about every thread regarding this topic, and posters continue to ignore, the defense played better because they were better in just about every single per drive statistic.

"But... TOP... keeping defense fresh", yes those help. However, the defense was better and it's not even really debatable.

Our 2013 Defense was historically bad. We were decimated by injuries. Any improvement was expected.

Fresher, healthier, better all work together with a strong ball control offense. Having a lead also helps a defense know what is coming.

 

[BAT]

No. As has been posted in just about every thread regarding this topic, and posters continue to ignore, the defense played better because they were better in just about every single per drive statistic.

"But... TOP... keeping defense fresh", yes those help. However, the defense was better and it's not even really debatable.

A better defense than the worst in the league and a championship defense are 2 very different things. If Cowboys beat GB, getting to championship game was more than within reach. Was it the defense that elevated this team to one of their best records in franchise history? Or do we give more credit to the offense that broke franchise and league rushing records??

 

[Galian Beast]

LOL, you know where you can stick your fallacy. I tell you what, ask Romo himself what he credits his most efficient season to, heck ask Garrett or Linehan. They have been clear about this from day one.

The Jets had about as much rushing yards as we did, and about as many attempts. Yet they went 4-12.... the exact opposite of our schedule.

No one is discounting the running game, but the suggestion that we need a single running back to run for 1800 yards...

 

[gmoney112]

Our 2013 Defense was historically bad. We were decimated by injuries. Any improvement was expected.

Fresher, healthier, better all work together with a strong ball control offense. Having a lead also helps a defense know what is coming.

The first sentence proved my point...

A better defense than the worst in the league and a championship defense are 2 very different things. If Cowboys beat GB, getting to championship game was more than within reach. Was it the defense that elevated this team to one of their best records in franchise history? Or do we give more credit to the offense that broke franchise and league rushing records??

Don't know what the first sentence has to do with anything.

Pretty much everyone saw after the 2013 debacle on defense, that even an "average" defense and we'd make the playoffs.

Which is exactly what happened. The running game obviously helped, as did the improvement on the OL, as improving on the worst defense in the NFL. That's the point.

 

[jobberone]

Seattle was 27th in pass yards.
Seattle was 15th in pass completion percentage.
Seattle was tied for 22nd in passing TDs.

Seattle was 1st in total rushing yards.
Seattle was 1st in rushing yards/carry
Seattle was 1st in rushing TDs.

Wow! One whole team. With a running QB. I'll give you they are the exception to the rule as their run sets up their pass. It's still their defense along with a timely offense which makes them dangerous. They are reminiscent of the Ravens a ways back. Or Tampa.

Give us all the teams over 20 years and I'll be impressed.

Name the SB winners since the Blount rule and give us the data on them.

Putting up one team is at best not representative of the league.

Are you really denying that passing and pass defense wins in this league?