The NFL QB Rating

[JoeyBoy718]

After opening night, sports fans were blown away by the epic QB battle. Brady showed why he was the GOAT. And Dak silenced critics and earned everyone's respect. Nobody had a bad thing to say about the two QBs.

Fast forward a few nights, what we witnessed on Thursday was the most pathetic QB battle of opening week, according to the NFL passer rating metric.

https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/passing/2021/REG/all/passingpasserrating/DESC

Stafford and Wilson topped the week with 150+ ratings. Another 7 QBs had a 120+ rating.

The 5 lowest rated QBs were:
Dak
Baker
Brady
Goff
D. Jones

Dak is the only one in that group above 100. Nobody is below 90.

Some of the all-time greats barely had a season with a 90+ rating. Either modern QBs are that good, this metric is that meaningless, or evaluating a QB is more than just looking at stats.

Edit: My bad. Didn't realize there was a second page of results. Looks like Rodgers was actually the worst with a 36 rating. That being said, Dak and Brady were still in the bottom third according to the metric.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Also shows why this stat is archaic and was never really an accurate assessment. No Matt Ryan, no Aaron Rodgers, no Zach Wilson.

Even goff played well in the second half of his game, dropped 33 on SF. We know Brady and Dak played well. Baker was handing it to KC for 3 quarters.

Based on a much better stats, ESPN’s QBR:

Dak 74.4 10th
Baker 68.8 12th
Tom Brady 65.4 13th


That’s a must better assessment of what we saw this weekend

 

[zrinkill]

Ok ....... Brady and Dak suck

Carry on.

 

[Diehardblues]

Stafford shows how important it is to be surrounded with a greater supporting cast and team.

This could turn out to be another Steve Young, Jim Plunkett type ending when a good QB moves to a better team.

And how much better did Darnold look in Carolina?
And Jameis in New Orleans.

 

[America's Cowboy]

None of you, especially either the NFL passer rating metric or the BSPN QBR metric, take into account the quality of Defense opposing QBs are having to face. THAT makes a huge difference.

I seriously doubt any of the other top Week 1 rated QBs would have performed much better against the Buccaneers. Certainly, none of them would have passed for over 400 yards and at least 3 TDs.

 

[Scotman]

The changes in the rules and the evolving game have absolutely changed the QB evaluation metrics. Aikman would rank...well...horrible. According to today's stats, Aikman was subpar. But if you watched the games, he became surgeon-like as the games became more and more important. He controlled the whole game. The game was just slower because the defenses at the time had SO much more latitude. The stats don't really reflect the modern game. How can you change the metrics to reflect the what makes a great game by a QB? No idea. It will have to be completely changed, though.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

I think that stat takes into account big time your play in the red zone, so that could explain Daks score.

 

[75boyz]

I mean...
Once again and I'll bring it up every now and again for emphasis on wins as a starter.

Cousins went 36 for 49 for over 350 and 2 TDs and no picks in a loss yesterday.

Play along and google his end of year stats for the last 5 to 8 years.

BUT when I did this yesterday I also came across an Oct 2020 article that said he was 7-31 as a starter since coming to the Vikings against winning teams.

Sound familiar?

Sooooooo...Draw your own comparisons, slice up accountability to team wins and losses anyway you want to do it. But Cousins has good stats too and is a comparable example to use against the ongoing narrative about Dak.

jmo

 

[Diehardblues]

The changes in the rules and the evolving game have absolutely changed the QB evaluation metrics. Aikman would rank...well...horrible. According to today's stats, Aikman was subpar. But if you watched the games, he became surgeon-like as the games became more and more important. He controlled the whole game. The game was just slower because the defenses at the time had SO much more latitude. The stats don't really reflect the modern game. How can you change the metrics to reflect the what makes a great game by a QB? No idea. It will have to be completely changed, though.

Right. The fact that most of this eras QB’s are near the top definitely skews these QB ratings to this pass happy era and rules.

You can’t even tackle a QB around the legs anymore in the pocket. Just pitiful personal fouls I saw yesterday with new rules.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

None of you, especially either the NFL passer rating metric or the BSPN QBR metric, take into account the quality of Defense opposing QBs are having to face. THAT makes a huge difference.

I seriously doubt any of the other top Week 1 rated QBs would have performed much better against the Buccaneers. Certainly, none of them would have passed for over 400 yards and at least 3 TDs.

That’s a difficult assumption to prove, especially because the Bucs didn’t have a particularly good pass D last year. They were 21st in the league. Their D is about preventing the run and then Brady out dueling the opponent’s QB while they have a strong pass rush.

Their pass rush took advantage of KC’s Oline problems in the super bowl and suddenly people pretend like TB wasn’t the 21st best pass D last year. And they were allowing 70% completion to boot. TB got blown out a couple of times because they couldn’t stop people.

 

[HungryLion]

Passer rating is not meaningless.


That being said due to the issues OP mentioned. You really just have to compare passer ratings from modern era. Not from years past.

QBR is a better Metric also. IMO

 

[Diehardblues]

That’s a difficult assumption to prove, especially because the Bucs didn’t have a particularly good pass D last year. They were 21st in the league. Their D is about preventing the run and then Brady out dueling the opponent’s QB while they have a strong pass rush.

Their pass rush took advantage of KC’s Oline problems in the super bowl and suddenly people pretend like TB wasn’t the 21st best pass D last year. And they were allowing 70% completion to boot. TB got blown out a couple of times because they couldn’t stop people.

Yep

Sometimes those stats can be skewed as well especially if opponents fall behind and abort running games with passing assault to come back.

 

[RonnieT24]

Is everybody really going to just accept this dude's brain dead interpretation of the data?

Let's unravel the lies one by one..

Dak and Brady were among the 5 lowest rated QBs.

That's odd since on the very link he provided the 5 lowest rated QBs are:

Aaron Rodgers 36.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick 56.3
Trevor Lawrence 70.1
Matt Ryan - 71.6
Andy Dalton - 72.9

This list also disproves the other lie "there were no QB's below 90."

In fact there were a total of 14 QBs with a passer rating below 90.. And none of them had to face the Super Bowl champion defense which last time we saw was playing at a higher level than any defense in the land..

Look if you wanna be critical of Dak fine.. but making up stupid crap to seem like you know what you're talking about? That's pure garbage.. And let's not leave out that if not for a ball that went right through Lamb's hands into an INT Dak would ALSO have had a passer rating above 120..

 

[Hoofbite]

The stat rewards efficiency over all else. All variables are divided by attempts. Anyone who passes 50+ times is likely not going to get a mind-boggling score unless that player also throws for like 600 yards and 8 TDs.

Small sample sizes. It'll all work itself out in the end.

 

[RonnieT24]

Dude must have seen my scathing critique and edited his post.. Your honor I withdraw the question..

 

[Scotman]

Right. The fact that most of this eras QB’s are near the top definitely skews these QB ratings to this pass happy era and rules.

You can’t even tackle a QB around the legs anymore in the pocket. Just pitiful personal fouls I saw yesterday with new rules.

Exactly. It's why you can't compare QB's from one era to the next. Can you imagine trying to compare Meredith to a modern QB. Meredith had a QB rating around 74. But the defenses could CLOBBER the receivers and QB. You could literally batter them on every play. For a "late" hit to be called the QB had to be on his way home after the game. Defenses could kill the QB and then go after his family before anyone looked sideways. The rules have changed the game. No judgement on better or worse, but definitely changed.

 

[America's Cowboy]

That’s a difficult assumption to prove, especially because the Bucs didn’t have a particularly good pass D last year. They were 21st in the league. Their D is about preventing the run and then Brady out dueling the opponent’s QB while they have a strong pass rush.

Their pass rush took advantage of KC’s Oline problems in the super bowl and suddenly people pretend like TB wasn’t the 21st best pass D last year. And they were allowing 70% completion to boot. TB got blown out a couple of times because they couldn’t stop people.

Dak got hit 22 times with the Oline the Cowboys have which is very good in pass protection. Clearly, the Bucs pass D has gotten better. Sure they gave up yards, but they limited the Cowboys high powered WRs to only 3 passing TDs. That says a lot.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Dak got hit 22 times with the Oline the Cowboys have which is very good in pass protection. Clearly, the Bucs pass D has gotten better. Sure they gave up yards, but they limited the Cowboys high powered WRs to only 3 passing TDs. That says a lot.

I’m not saying Dak didnt play really well, but to imply he’s the only QB who could have put up those numbers on that D is a bit misleading

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Is everybody really going to just accept this dude's brain dead interpretation of the data?

Let's unravel the lies one by one..

Dak and Brady were among the 5 lowest rated QBs.

That's odd since on the very link he provided the 5 lowest rated QBs are:

Aaron Rodgers 36.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick 56.3
Trevor Lawrence 70.1
Matt Ryan - 71.6
Andy Dalton - 72.9

This list also disproves the other lie "there were no QB's below 90."

In fact there were a total of 14 QBs with a passer rating below 90.. And none of them had to face the Super Bowl champion defense which last time we saw was playing at a higher level than any defense in the land..

Look if you wanna be critical of Dak fine.. but making up stupid crap to seem like you know what you're talking about? That's pure garbage.. And let's not leave out that if not for a ball that went right through Lamb's hands into an INT Dak would ALSO have had a passer rating above 120..

Yeah I thought his post was going over my head.....how is a 100 QB rating top 5 lowest over the weekend?

 

[RonnieT24]

Passer rating is not meaningless.


That being said due to the issues OP mentioned. You really just have to compare passer ratings from modern era. Not from years past.

QBR is a better Metric also. IMO

I agree.. QBR encompasses everything about how the QB plays not just how he throws the ball. That way a guy who throws for 300 yards and 2 TDs but fumbles 5 times can be properly dinged for it. It's a much better way of evaluating QB play since there is quite simply tons more to it than just throwing the ball. As for passer ratings now vs back when you could actually hit receivers AND QBs.. It's a fool's errand. Today's rules have made is MUCH easier to shine in the passing game... The assumption that all these guys are better because of their passing numbers reveals a stunning lack of knowledge of the game ..