The Outlier QB vs A 1st Round QB Working Out

[kskboys]

I feel like Tom Brady really skews the numbers in trying to find predictive stats for when/how a qb makes it. he just won too much and concentrated the sample size to the point it's hard (imo) to really draw any meaninful data.

Especially when the top 10 QB's list is littered w/ 1st round picks.

 

[UncleRico]

What’s easier to find?

A Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Stroud, Love, Lawrence, or Lamar?

Or

Tom Brady

Brady is right now the ultimate outlier. The GOAT that everyone passed over multiple times.

Russell Wilson is currently the only active QB to win a Super Bowl and not be drafted in the 1st round.

We have Dak. The Cowboys would have to make NFL history at the point to win a Super Bowl with Dak.

Dak is a 4th rounder, over 30, entering his 9th season on the team that drafted him, all while taking up the majority of the cap. He would have to be the 1st QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with all that baggage attached. He would become the ultimate outlier. The outlier of all outliers.

So I ask. Why are some so horrified of drafting a QB high and moving on? The chances that we hit on that QB are astronomically higher than Dak ever leading the Cowboys to a Super Bowl victory. There’s 1st round QB hits almost every year, but there’s never been a QB win anything with Daks baggage.

Only 3 of the top 10 NFL QBs according to NFL.com weren’t 1st round picks.

Dak #2
Purdy #6
Cousins #10

 

[UncleRico]

What’s easier to find?

A Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Stroud, Love, Lawrence, or Lamar?

Or

Tom Brady

Brady is right now the ultimate outlier. The GOAT that everyone passed over multiple times.

Russell Wilson is currently the only active QB to win a Super Bowl and not be drafted in the 1st round.

We have Dak. The Cowboys would have to make NFL history at the point to win a Super Bowl with Dak.

Dak is a 4th rounder, over 30, entering his 9th season on the team that drafted him, all while taking up the majority of the cap. He would have to be the 1st QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with all that baggage attached. He would become the ultimate outlier. The outlier of all outliers.

So I ask. Why are some so horrified of drafting a QB high and moving on? The chances that we hit on that QB are astronomically higher than Dak ever leading the Cowboys to a Super Bowl victory. There’s 1st round QB hits almost every year, but there’s never been a QB win anything with Daks baggage.

That’s a little disingenuous though. Only 3 QBs other than Brady or Mahomes has won a Super Bowl in the last 10 years. Stafford, Foles(3rd rounder) and Peyton Manning.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Yeah I agree facts don’t matter hence why I said what I said. Nobody said Rush is the answer at qb. I’m pretty sure you can’t find those post or maybe you can find an outlier post but that’s not close to the norm. Just goes to show that you can win without a certain player that’s all.

I beg to differ. There were a few here who wanted to go with Rush. Their logic, exactly the same, Rushnis 5-1.

 

[TWOK11]

If you take out the QB's in the 1st who were overdrafted, the bust percentage drops drastically.

A player being overdrafted is, by definition, an assessment that can only be made in hindsight. It’s like saying if you take out the bad bets you made you won most of your bets.

 

[Brax]

In February 2024, 49ers owner Jed York told reporters that Kyle Shanahan told him that Brock Purdy was the 49ers' best quarterback before the 2022 season. So I guess, once he saw Purdy he didn't have time for anyone else.

How long you think MM lasts if in 22 he told Jerry his best QB wasn’t named Dak

 

[Brax]

and he sucks, based on evidence to date....this ain't the yellow brick road and clicking your heels three times ain't going to send you back to kansas.

You know everything you say may be true, and everything you say can be applied to Dak who has more evidence to support your statement

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

You know everything you say may be true, and everything you say can be applied to Dak who has more evidence to support your statement

probably. but this wasn't about Dak. the problem is the Dak detractors, point to somebody else as the savior. get called out by facts. then they say, hey look over there, let get back to...Dak..

the debate was about Lance. not Dak. irrelevant to the discussion. but I get you.