The Prescott/Purdy statistical conundrum

RonnieT24

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I believe total QBR also places value on rushing TDs for QBs, which I don’t when it comes evaluating QB play.
Why would you not? Scoring TDs for your team is a good thing. I would also point out that the two guys with the highest QBR this year neither has more than 1 or 2 rushing TD if I'm mistaken? Meanwhile Hurts, Allen and Jackson have 3-4 times that and are ranked below them. So whatever they're measuring doesn't place THAT much emphasis on rushing TDs.
 

RonnieT24

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Look we have to stop making TP a player type who can create his own holes with no head of steam and push a pile , but in the open filed if he gets any momentum he can break tackles we saw him truck dudes last week in Washington for a td and a few runs yesterday, that is in fact breaking tackles... so he's not the best short yardage guy but it doesn't mean he doesn't break tackles..
Yeah like I've been saying since they released Zeke, if the Cowboys try to use Pollard like they used Zeke it will be a miserable failure. That's not who he is nor is it necessary for him to be in order for him to be effective. I cringe every time they run him in short yardage or goal to go situations. But I have never been a fan of all this shotgun run crapola even when they were doing it with Zeke. It's especially stupid in short yardage when the entire defense is in the box. You know you're going to have penetration and the back is going to have to fight off defenders so why make him do it from a damn standing start.
 

blueblood70

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Yeah like I've been saying since they released Zeke, if the Cowboys try to use Pollard like they used Zeke it will be a miserable failure. That's not who he is nor is it necessary for him to be in order for him to be effective. I cringe every time they run him in short yardage or goal to go situations. But I have never been a fan of all this shotgun run crapola even when they were doing it with Zeke. It's especially stupid in short yardage when the entire defense is in the box. You know you're going to have penetration and the back is going to have to fight off defenders so why make him do it from a damn standing start.
yes, it's a head scratcher rico and hunter should be lined up in the old school downhill short yardage I formations and just go get it.... it just amazes me in a bad way that rico doesn't get more snaps in these situations.. you see when he comes in he looks much more powerful much more energetic, it's like 2 plays and then they pull him, ....he disappears for two or three series. shrug.
 

Crown Royal

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SF is still a harder offense to defend. Much better running game, their system and WR separation are phenomenal and when Williams is healthy they are pretty elite at protection. The offense is stacked and designed so that you cannot make good choices against them. They're built to destroy zones and if you decide to go man to man, if your pass rush does not get home they WILL get you on the crossers and YAC plays.

The Cowboys offense is excellent, but lack of run game and questionable line play at times is going to be a problem.
 

rambo2

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I still don’t think we have the right coaching for a championship. You cannot make mistakes and think you’re going to win in this league. We should’ve beaten Philadelphia. I put that on coaching.
If we win the championship, are you against McCarthy going to the Hall of Fame?
 

America's Cowboy

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Purdy has maybe the top offensive mind in the game scheming plays for him. That's his biggest advantage.
Plus, Purdy has receiving weapons who are always wide open and are among the best in the league in YAC yards. Along with a very good protection up front where Purdy has all day to throw. That is what is making Purdy look so good. Make him make tight window throws with receivers who don't get much separation plus while he is constantly under pressure due to poor pass protection, I seriously doubt Purdy would look anywhere as good as he does now.
 

America's Cowboy

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SF is still a harder offense to defend. Much better running game, their system and WR separation are phenomenal and when Williams is healthy they are pretty elite at protection. The offense is stacked and designed so that you cannot make good choices against them. They're built to destroy zones and if you decide to go man to man, if your pass rush does not get home they WILL get you on the crossers and YAC plays.

The Cowboys offense is excellent, but lack of run game and questionable line play at times is going to be a problem.
Exactly what I was referring to in my previous post. No wonder Purdy looks so good. I guarantee he would struggle badly if he had to QB our Offense.
 

Creeper

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I was looking at the passer ratings and overall stats and tried to make sense of why Purdy's rating is 5 points higher than Dak's. They have essentially the same completion percentage but Dak has a higher TD percentage (6.3 to 6.2) a much lower INT percentage (1.5 to 2.0) and more yards. The only number were Purdy is significantly better is yards per attempt.. His in 9.4 to 7.9 for Dak. Does the formula really weigh yards per attempt that heavily? Because pretty much every other metric I look at Dak is having a superior season. Oh and watching him refuse to let his team lose last night even with the defense failing to show up until the 4th quarter.
I can see Dak improving his yards per attempt as the season goes on. Early in the year he was dinking and dunking me sick. But Purdy dinks and dunks. He gets the benefit of exception run after catch by players like Samuel and CMC. Even Kittle is a big YAC guy.

But I agree, maybe yards per attempt is overrated. To measure the QB, maybe they should only count the yards to the catch and not what happens after the catch.
 

Crown Royal

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Exactly what I was referring to in my previous post. No wonder Purdy looks so good. I guarantee he would struggle badly if he had to QB our Offense.
Maybe I don't know. There are other QBs who had the same weapons as Purdy and could not get it done, so I'm not going to undersell the guy either. I will say he looks better in his second year than Dak did, regardless of weapons.
 

America's Cowboy

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Maybe I don't know. There are other QBs who had the same weapons as Purdy and could not get it done, so I'm not going to undersell the guy either. I will say he looks better in his second year than Dak did, regardless of weapons.
Nah. I know what I see. Purdy is a system QB who has amongst the best weapons, Oline protection and playcalling in the league. Place him on our team, guarantee he would struggle badly.
 

Yobwocs

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The main thing to measure is common games. Dak has played better than Purdy in common games.... the Giants, the Rams, and especially the Seahawks where Purdy once again sat back and watched his defense come up with short fields. Purdy played better against the Cardinals doe.

Purdy fanboys are gonna bring up his perfect 158.3 rating against the Bucs to suggest Purdy is a better Quarterback. But.... Dak didn't play them. Doe he wrecked them last year when they actually had a Quarterback.
 

aikemirv

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I was looking at the passer ratings and overall stats and tried to make sense of why Purdy's rating is 5 points higher than Dak's. They have essentially the same completion percentage but Dak has a higher TD percentage (6.3 to 6.2) a much lower INT percentage (1.5 to 2.0) and more yards. The only number were Purdy is significantly better is yards per attempt.. His in 9.4 to 7.9 for Dak. Does the formula really weigh yards per attempt that heavily? Because pretty much every other metric I look at Dak is having a superior season. Oh and watching him refuse to let his team lose last night even with the defense failing to show up until the 4th quarter.
YPA is a huge factor in QB rating
 

RonnieT24

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YPA is a huge factor in QB rating
I'm actually discussing passer rating but yeah it certainly looks like it. However since it does not take into account the amount of YAC per attempt IMHO it's not accurate. But no metric is perfect. I was just floored by the fact that was as good or better in several areas but still below Purdy in overall rating. And by such a large margin.
 

aikemirv

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I'm actually discussing passer rating but yeah it certainly looks like it. However since it does not take into account the amount of YAC per attempt IMHO it's not accurate. But no metric is perfect. I was just floored by the fact that was as good or better in several areas but still below Purdy in overall rating. And by such a large margin.
Yeah I know QB rating,- I meant passer rating. QBR is something completely different. YPA I think is a very good metric because while it may include YAC, it is a excellent metric for offensive productivity and scoring. Low YPA in the 5-6 range is a recipe for failure. YAC may not always be a accurate for the QB comps but YPA IMO is one of the best measures for scoring and winning!

The top 7 Qb's in YPA are 6 of the 7 best records in the NFL this year.
 

RonnieT24

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Yeah I know QB rating,- I meant passer rating. QBR is something completely different. YPA I think is a very good metric because while it may include YAC, it is a excellent metric for offensive productivity and scoring. Low YPA in the 5-6 range is a recipe for failure. YAC may not always be a accurate for the QB comps but YPA IMO is one of the best measures for scoring and winning!

The top 7 Qb's in YPA are 6 of the 7 best records in the NFL this year.
Oh it's definitely a good indicator of offensive performance.. I just don't know that it does much with regard to evaluating QB performance. At least not in terms of how well they are actually throwing the ball. A few 5 yard slants turned into 70 yard TDs because of a missed tackle or two can greatly skew those numbers. I guess you can credit the QB for good ball placement on those?
 

aikemirv

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Oh it's definitely a good indicator of offensive performance.. I just don't know that it does much with regard to evaluating QB performance. At least not in terms of how well they are actually throwing the ball. A few 5 yard slants turned into 70 yard TDs because of a missed tackle or two can greatly skew those numbers. I guess you can credit the QB for good ball placement on those?
I think that is why they came up with QBR because other people did not like it either. YAC is however partially a result of accuracy, timing and choice that the QB is in control of.
 

RonnieT24

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I think that is why they came up with QBR because other people did not like it either. YAC is however partially a result of accuracy, timing and choice that the QB is in control of.
If I'm not mistaken Troy Aikman and some of the other top level QBs in the game at the time were consulted when they were formulating it. I think they tried to incorporate all the things a QB does plus or minus into it. In the passer rating formula an 8 yard completion on 3rd and 12 counts the same as an 8 yard completion on 3rd and 7. In QBR that would presumably NOT be the case. Like I said nothing is perfect but I think QBR gets closer to evaluating the full impact of the QB than passer rating does.
 

JD_KaPow

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I was looking at the passer ratings and overall stats and tried to make sense of why Purdy's rating is 5 points higher than Dak's. They have essentially the same completion percentage but Dak has a higher TD percentage (6.3 to 6.2) a much lower INT percentage (1.5 to 2.0) and more yards. The only number were Purdy is significantly better is yards per attempt.. His in 9.4 to 7.9 for Dak. Does the formula really weigh yards per attempt that heavily? Because pretty much every other metric I look at Dak is having a superior season. Oh and watching him refuse to let his team lose last night even with the defense failing to show up until the 4th quarter.
Passer rating has become meaningless as quarterbacks have become more efficient over the years. The passer rating has built-in caps on the components that made more sense back when it was developed. When you have guys sitting up around 100 or higher, tiny differences that don't mean anything in real terms can change the rating substantially. The difference between 108 and 112 means absolutely nothing. (Also, passer rating ignores QB rushing, sacks and fumbles. It's just not a good tool.)

They're essentially tied in QBR (Dak's at 75.5 and Purdy at 75.2). They're 1-2 in EPA/play, with Purdy 1st (that's before last night's game).
By the numbers, it's really a toss-up.
 

Captain43Crash

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The 49ers break tackles, the Cowboys don't.

There's your difference.
That is soooooooo soooooo stupid!

In general, the Whiner’s receivers, run further with the ball before Ist contact. We are very similar to the Whiners over the last 5 games, but early in the season we were ding and dunk so the receivers were getting very light separation.
 

Mac_MaloneV1

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That is soooooooo soooooo stupid!

In general, the Whiner’s receivers, run further with the ball before Ist contact. We are very similar to the Whiners over the last 5 games, but early in the season we were ding and dunk so the receivers were getting very light separation.
You're right. Tony Pollard breaks tackles just as well as Christian McAffrey.
 
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