Thoughts on contract extension numbers for Romo...

[WoodysGirl]

People have talked for a few weeks about what it would take to get Romo's contract extended. Some debate whether they should break the bank or not. I don't think the 'boys will break the bank. If you follow the trend of the contracts handed out in recent years, they've been fair, but not deal breakers with respect to the positional numbers. And although Romo is the QB, I don't think they should make any exception in that regard.

Here are Romo's season-ending numbers after 10 games in the regular season per NFL.com. Not sure how these numbers would translate over 16 games as I'm not a math major.

220/337 65.3 completion percentage 2903 yards 8.61 YPA 19 TDs 13 INTs 95.1 QB rating.

Romo led the team to the playoffs and was 6-4 in his 10 starts. He made the Pro Bowl and probably would've been named MVP due to his come back efforts at the end.

So I did a lil research and came up with two candidates whose contract I would look closely at when coming up with numbers for Romo.

Marc Bulger and Jake Delhomme. Both were extended after short stints as starting quarterback in 2004.

Marc Bulger.
Per USA Today

2002 St. Louis Rams 138/214 1826 64.5 completion pct 8.53 14 TDs 6 INTs 101.5 QB rating
2003 St. Louis Rams 336/532 3845 63.2 completion pct 7.23 22 TDs 22 INTs 81.4 QB rating

His first contact extension was in 2004. He won his first six starts in 2002 and led the team to a 12-4 record and an NFC West championship last year, then was the MVP in the Pro Bowl after throwing a record four touchdowns.

His extension was for four years 17.25m and a 9m signing bonus.

Jake Delhomme
per Sportsline.com

266/449 3219 59.2 completion pct 7.17 YPA 19 TDs/16 INT 80.6 QB rating

Jake Delhomme was rewarded for helping guide the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl with a five-year contract extension Thursday worth $38 million. Delhomme will get $12 million up front, including a signing bonus and option bonuses.

Contract Length
My fan guesstimation would be that Romo's next contract will be in the 4-6 yr range. 6 yrs would be the max and if you look at the trend of the contracts by the 'boys, all of their extensions are 6 yrs.

Signing bonus
He figures to get 10-12 mil as a signing bonus. That seems to be the standard number being thrown around.

Contract amount
I'm thinking he'll sign for approximately 20-30 million. This is based on the cost of signing players going up. I don't know that he'll get 38 mil, but I don't think he'll get 17 mil either.

So those are my thoughts...

 

[ljs44]

Looks 100% reasonable to me WG. Nice work.

 

[SkinsandTerps]

A 6 year deal would be likely but I wouldnt be surprised with a 4 year, 30M with 10 up front. If its a 6 year deal I would expect more like 12 up front.

 

[windward]

A 6 year deal would be likely but I wouldnt be surprised with a 4 year, 30M with 10 up front. If its a 6 year deal I would expect more like 12 up front.

I honestly wouldn't be shocked with either scenario.

 

[CATCH17]

If he has a season like he did this year over 16 games we'd be screwed when it comes to signing him to another contract.

Just get it over with now.

 

[Doomsday101]

If he has a season like he did this year over 16 games we'd be screwed when it comes to signing him to another contract.

Just get it over with now.

I agree and I actually think he will have a better season than this past year.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

I dont think he should get any kind of mega contract... I mean... look at the end of the season... at times he looked every bit the part of an undrafted QB.... then he showed some great playmaking ability... the more he was gameplanned... the less productive he was... that is reality...


I am hoping for him to progress but I could see him regress with his ability... I am just not sold...

He should get a nice fair deal.... not a comparable deal to other QB's that have "seasons" under their belt....

 

[theogt]

Last edited by WoodysGirl : 37 Minutes Ago at 02:02 PM. Reason: grammer stuff

:laugh2:

 

[WoodysGirl]

:laugh2:

Couldn't help myself... I rarely make original long posts and the typos were killing me.

 

[burmafrd]

Now that is funny.

 

[WoodysGirl]

I dont think he should get any kind of mega contract... I mean... look at the end of the season... at times he looked every bit the part of an undrafted QB.... then he showed some great playmaking ability... the more he was gameplanned... the less productive he was... that is reality...


I am hoping for him to progress but I could see him regress with his ability... I am just not sold...

He should get a nice fair deal.... not a comparable deal to other QB's that have "seasons" under their belt....

Then what numbers do you suggest? I understand your concern, but both of those guys got contracts right about the same age with similar amount of experience and success. I can't imagine what other QB's baseline numbers compare.

With Marc Bulger, St. Louis waited until after he completed a full season after initially starting only 7 games, before they extended him. I'm not sure the Cowboys are even considering playing the waiting game.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Then what numbers do you suggest? I understand your concern, but both of those guys got contracts right about the same age with similar amount of experience and success. I can't imagine what other QB's baseline numbers compare.

With Marc Bulger, St. Louis waited until after he completed a full season after initially starting only 7 games, before they extended him. I'm not sure the Cowboys are even considering playing the waiting game.

I just dont think that just because Bulger got a certain deal that Romo should be lined up the same way.

Like it or not... he was given a shot to be QB of America's Team..... he has taken advantage of it(and could reap more benefits)... I think his deal is special and should be between him and Jerry in a "we gave you a shot and we get hometown discount" type deal.... incentive laden to blow it up works for me... so..... modest deal with perks....

 

[Idgit]

I dont think he should get any kind of mega contract... I mean... look at the end of the season... at times he looked every bit the part of an undrafted QB.... then he showed some great playmaking ability... the more he was gameplanned... the less productive he was... that is reality...


I am hoping for him to progress but I could see him regress with his ability... I am just not sold...

He should get a nice fair deal.... not a comparable deal to other QB's that have "seasons" under their belt....

Romo sure never looked like an undrafted QB to me last year. I also don't think he was really gameplanned so much as put in much riskier situations where you should expect him to have a much harder time converting.

As for his contract, WG, my thoughts were mirroring an inflation-adjusted Bulger contract, exactly. Though I'm a bit surprised looking at your numbers, b/c they're lower than I would have guessed.

 

[Idgit]

I just dont think that just because Bulger got a certain deal that Romo should be lined up the same way.

Like it or not... he was given a shot to be QB of America's Team..... he has taken advantage of it(and could reap more benefits)... I think his deal is special and should be between him and Jerry in a "we gave you a shot and we get hometown discount" type deal.... incentive laden to blow it up works for me... so..... modest deal with perks....

Modest deal with perks for a first-year starter who went to the pro bowl and has already proven that he's more than happy rolling the dice on his contract? Unlikely.

 

[WoodysGirl]

I just dont think that just because Bulger got a certain deal that Romo should be lined up the same way.

Like it or not... he was given a shot to be QB of America's Team..... he has taken advantage of it(and could reap more benefits)... I think his deal is special and should be between him and Jerry in a "we gave you a shot and we get hometown discount" type deal.... incentive laden to blow it up works for me... so..... modest deal with perks....

Bulger got a low-end deal, but was considered fair for that time. Delhomme would probably have gotten the same money had he not taken Carolina to the SB. And while you may not think Romo deserves the same kind of contract as those guys, in today's NFL, that's probably what he's going to get, especially with his agents.

That's pretty utopia-ish thinking really. No way should any fan expect Romo to give Jerry a hometown discount. He's not gonna get Manning, McNabb, or Vick money, but he's certainly not gonna get scrub, back-up money either. Just unrealistic to think so.

This may be Romo's only big contract as a QB, he's not gonna give Jerry a wink-wink deal just so he could play for America's team. And if Jerry and his agent aren't on the same page, I could very well see Romo play out his contract in the 2007, have some success, and consider testing the free agent waters.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Modest deal with perks for a first-year starter who went to the pro bowl and has already proven that he's more than happy rolling the dice on his contract? Unlikely.

You seem to be letting this guy off the hook.... he was really bad at times... many were concerned... he is loose(very loose) with the ball and made really bad passes that were INT'd or were almost INT'd..... I want the best out of this guy... I hope he is the one.... but what happened, happened... he looked really bad towards the end...

He would roll the dice? I didnt know that... BUT... if he thinks he can just go to any team and be successful... I think he is too high on himself.... he has GREAT weapons here.... not many teams have as many as we do (Witten, Glenn, TO, Barber) and other youg'uns....

 

[theogt]

You seem to be letting this guy off the hook.... he was really bad at times... many were concerned... he is loose(very loose) with the ball and made really bad passes that were INT'd or were almost INT'd..... I want the best out of this guy... I hope he is the one.... but what happened, happened... he looked really bad towards the end...

He would roll the dice? I didnt know that... BUT... if he thinks he can just go to any team and be successful... I think he is too high on himself.... he has GREAT weapons here.... not many teams have as many as we do (Witten, Glenn, TO, Barber) and other youg'uns....

Right. When he was putting up 110+ QB ratings he looked horrible.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Bulger got a low-end deal, but was considered fair for that time. Delhomme would probably have gotten the same money had he not taken Carolina to the SB. And while you may not think Romo deserves the same kind of contract as those guys, in today's NFL, that's probably what he's going to get, especially with his agents.

That's pretty utopia-ish thinking really. No way should any fan expect Romo to give Jerry a hometown discount. He's not gonna get Manning, McNabb, or Vick money, but he's certainly not gonna get scrub, back-up money either. Just unrealistic to think so.

This may be Romo's only big contract as a QB, he's not gonna give Jerry a wink-wink deal just so he could play for America's team. And if Jerry and his agent aren't on the same page, I could very well see Romo play out his contract in the 2007, have some success, and consider testing the free agent waters.

Brady just wanted a fair deal and to leave money to sign other players... he could have gotten more... he just wanted to stay a Pat. So to say that Romo wont.... well... we dont know.... he DOES owe the Cowboys

 

[WoodysGirl]

Romo sure never looked like an undrafted QB to me last year. I also don't think he was really gameplanned so much as put in much riskier situations where you should expect him to have a much harder time converting.

As for his contract, WG, my thoughts were mirroring an inflation-adjusted Bulger contract, exactly. Though I'm a bit surprised looking at your numbers, b/c they're lower than I would have guessed.

With inflation, I could see his signing bonus going to the 15mil range. But that would be if he's signing a 6-yr deal w/the last being voidable and the overall contract numbers closer to the 30 mil range.

 

[WoodysGirl]

Brady just wanted a fair deal and to leave money to sign other players... he could have gotten more... he just wanted to stay a Pat. So to say that Romo wont.... well... we dont know.... he DOES owe the Cowboys

Romo justified the Cowboys faith in him and he did that by performing well in his first real game action of his career. But in reality, he doesn't owe them anything. He fought to stay on the roster. He earned his keep by putting in hard work. And for that, the 'boys need will reward him accordingly.

As for Brady, check this out...
http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/8466188

Let's get one thing clear about the new contract signed by Tom Brady with the New England Patriots: It's not as much of a bargain for the team as some are painting it. Did he take less than he should have? Yes. But he got a hefty deal.


Perceptions aside, Tom Brady is laughing all the way to the bank. (AP)
Yet for some reason, there's this romanticizing of the Patriots in regards to the family-style way they run their team, that Brady took a deal far below what he deserved for the good of the team. Many writers and broadcasters continually insist the players don't care about themselves in New England, only what's good for the team.

That's a bunch of bunk.

The reality is the Patriots really do have something special going on. How else can we explain three Super Bowl victories in four years, two in the past two?

But don't ever forget the NFL is a business, and each of the league's players is his own private corporation.

That's why it's in their best interests to get what they can at the bargaining table. It's also why Brady didn't take nearly the hometown discount that everyone is portraying -- nor should he have.

Peyton Manning and Michael Vick were portrayed as the greedy ones when they did their new deals in the past year.

Tom Brady? The talk is he put the team ahead of himself.

Oh, really?

A closer look at Brady's deal might make you think otherwise. Brady signed a six-year deal that is worth $60 million. Manning signed a 10-year deal worth $98 million. Vick signed a 10-year deal worth over $134 million, although many of the last few years are nothing but funny money numbers he'll never see.

Vick will get $37.5 million in bonus money, while Manning received $34.5 million in bonus money and Brady will get $26.5 million. Manning's three-year average -- which is all these contracts usually last until they are torn up and done over again -- is $15.2 million. Vick's three-year average is $15 million, while Brady's is $13.11.

Taking a $9 million roster bonus Manning is due next spring out of the equation for now, Manning gets $34.5 million in bonus money, plus base salaries of $535,000, $665,000 and $1 million in the first three years of his deal for a total of $36.7 million. The $9 million takes it to $45.7 million for the $15.2 average.

Vick's deal is complicated -- he got a $22.5 million roster bonus this year -- but his average of $15 million per season for the first three years is up there with Manning.

Brady gets $26.5 million in signing-bonus money, plus salaries of $1 million, $4 million and $6 million in the first three years for a total of $37.5 million.

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So, you see, the deals are similar, the roster bonus next spring excluded.

In terms of cap numbers, Vick's is $7.99 million this year, Brady's is $8.429 million and Manning's is $8.431 million. All three have cap numbers that spike next year. Vick's is scheduled to be $23.3 million, Manning's at $17.6 million and Brady's at $14.4 million. All should have lesser numbers when the cap trimmers work on their deals.

Vick's cap number definitely has to be reworked, while those of Manning and Brady will also likely get done.

So how much difference is there in the three deals? By the way the national media has jumped on this what-a-great-thing-Brady-did mentality, you'd think he had signed on for a $10 million signing bonus and a three-year average of $6 million per season.

Could he have held out for more money? You bet. And that's his mistake. But since he said all along he wasn't going to be a problem at the bargaining table, Brady did a deal that was slightly below market value.

With three Super Bowl rings to none for Vick and Manning, couldn't he have done a better deal, topping Vick, not just getting close to it? A strong argument can be made that Brady deserved to be paid more than both of them.

I tried contacting Don Yee, Brady's agent, for a few words about this talk that Brady didn't play hardball to get the deal he could have, but Yee never called back. I'm sure he can't be happy about the perception that Brady didn't get all that was coming to him.

He did get a good deal, one much closer to Manning's and Vick's than is being portrayed. But leaving money on the table is a bad thing for any player.

It wasn't like he was leaving New England to go to another team in pursuit of more money. The Patriots were never going to let him go. So any deal was with them.

This talk he left money on the table to help the team, while Manning and Vick didn't, is absurd.

Let's face it: All three have huge contracts that will limit their teams' cap flexibility in the coming years. Manning's and Vick's might be a little worse, but not by the amount you'd expect gauging all the talk.

Brady deserved to be in the Vick-Manning neighborhood of contracts, and it can be argued he should top them all.

He is now living in their high-priced penthouse neighborhood, even if many in the media like to paint a picture that he's still living in his starter home.