It seems as though the highly rated guys who fall end up being productive players more often than guys who are seemingly way over drafted.
Maybe. I haven't seen any percentages concerning that. I would think generally if you get a guy like Cox who was supposed to go as early as the second round, the chances of him succeeding are higher. At the same time, there may be reasons why they fell that are precursors to why they fail in the NFL. The example that always comes to mind for me is Patrick Watkins, although I know there are plenty of examples of success. Draft experts thought he would go as early as the second round. We got him in the fifth and he never was more than a special-teammer..
Last year, Anae was rated higher than he went and we haven't gotten a return on that yet. That's just a couple that come to mind. I'd have to go back and look at where other players we selected were rated and don't have time to do that right now.
I think overall that just a lot of draft picks fail no matter what they were rated. We have two of six third-day picks from 2019 left, three of six from 2018, zero of six from 2017 and two of six from 2016. Third-round picks are faring a little better as we have all but one since 2016 still on the team, but none from before then.