CFZ Time to pass the ball

[Jumbo075]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

 

[817Gill]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

Great post

 

[buybuydandavis]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

correlation, causation

When your reads are covered, you have to hold the ball longer and are less likely to have completions.
When your reads are open, you get rid of the ball faster and are more likely to have completions.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

**POST OF THE UPCOMING 2023 SEASON**

Amazing post, @Jumbo075 !!! Thank you for this awesome breakdown and fully explanatory opening post!

Everyone should read this. Hey, @Jake , you should read this opening post slowly and carefully. It explains a lot. You just might learn and understand why it's totally unfair to blame Dak for 2022's, 2021's and several seasons before that shortfalls thanks to Kellen Moore and his failed Air Coryell system.

 

[Captain-Crash]

Hum to me it sounds like if nobody is open he goes into panic mode and panics. Then he glitches out. shrugs

 

[CowboyoWales]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

Excellent post.

correlation, causation

When your reads are covered, you have to hold the ball longer and are less likely to have completions.
When your reads are open, you get rid of the ball faster and are more likely to have completions.

But in Air Coryell Dak's having to go through the progressions in hope that someone is open.....hence extending the time with ball in hand and increasing (for me) his anxiety and making throws that arent there. So you overcome that by putting the emphasis on a WCO initial separation and then to check-down straight away. It suits us now as we've got a number of receivers (both WR and RB's) proficient in YAC to execute it.

 

[removed_20241105]

Great post and it mad me read more about the system. Thank you.

I’m sure Kellen Moore tweaked his system much like Martz, Gibbs and Norv Turner did complete with check down options as well. Do you think some of this implies that Dak was not assessing coverage quick enough as well at times? Or that there weren’t enough check down options? Or a combo of both?

Seems like McCarthy likes the system but just wants to mix in more timely runs if that is even to be believed over him actually just wanting to justify firing Moore. Them adding Cooks this off-season implies to me we actually won’t see much change in run/pass or even scheme.

 

[noshame]

The system we morphed into to fit Dak had ZERO resemblance of air Coryell.
Dak had short drag routes to CeeDee, short routes to Pollard and short TE routes
Those 3 kept this offense alive towards the end of the season.

No matter what offense we roll out, Dak has to hit sidelines and deep routes to back defenses off or there will be disappointment. Maybe these new offensive coaches can help him, but I still feel moving him around is the only hope.

 

[T-RO]

There's a bonfire coming. Here. Soon.

 

[shabazz]

Hum to me it sounds like if nobody is open he goes into panic mode and panics. Then he glitches out. shrugs

Also sounds like the more time Dak has to read and react….the worse the results are.

 

[The Fonz]

Also sounds like the more time Dak has to read and react….the worse the results are.

read and react=panic

 

[America's Cowboy]

For those saying how the more time Dak needs to read and react, the worse the results are, well, a lot of it has to fall on both the Oline and receivers. If the Oline struggles to give you more than 2 seconds of pass protection while your receivers struggle to get separation early, much less get open late, of course Dak or any QB is going to struggle, especially if they force a pass into tight coverage. 3rd & 5+ needed to keep a drive alive. Dak forces a throw into his receivers who struggled to get open often all season long. The Cowboys receivers were the worst group in the whole NFL in 2022 with the worst amount of any separation between them and a defender. WHAT OTHER KIND OF RESULT DID YOU HONESTLY EXPECT FROM DAK????????? HE'S TRYING TO MAKE A PLAY TO KEEP A DRIVE ALIVE!!!!!!!!! IF HE THROWS THE BALL AWAY AND FORCES A PUNT, FREQUENTLY, Y'ALL WOULD BE COMPLAINING BLOODY MURDER NONSTOP AND CALLING HIM A COWARD FOR NOT ATTEMPTING SOME RISKY TIGHT COVERAGE THROWS!!!!!!!

 

[doomsday9084]

For those saying how the more time Dak needs to read and react, the worse the results are, well, a lot of it has to fall on both the Oline and receivers. If the Oline struggles to give you more than 2 seconds of pass protection while your receivers struggle to get separation early, much less get open late, of course Dak or any QB is going to struggle, especially if they force a pass into tight coverage. 3rd & 7+ needed to keep a drive alive. Dak forces a throw into his receivers who struggled to get open often all season long. The Cowboys receivers were the worst group in the whole NFL in 2022 with the worst amount of any separation between them and a defender. WHAT OTHER KIND OF RESULT DID YOU HONESTLY EXPECT FROM DAK????????? HE'S TRYING TO MAKE A PLAY TO KEEP A DRIVE ALIVE!!!!!!!!! IF HE THROWS THE BALL AWAY AND FORCES A PUNT FREQUENTLY, Y'ALL WOULD BE COMPLAINING BLOODY MURDER NONSTOP AND CALLING HIM A COWARD FOR NOT ATTEMPTING SOME RISKY TIGHT COVERAGE THROWS!!!!!!!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

Dak had:
- The 11th most pocket time at 2.5 seconds
- The 16th lowest pressure%
Dak's blocking wasn't the best in the league . . . but
- The highest INT% in the NFL, by a fair margin

Basically, the issues with blocking do not justify Dak's interceptions. Personally, I blame Kellen Moore for a lot of that but not acknowledging just how bad Dak was for throwing the ball away last year just engenders more hatred for Dak. Hopefully this year this gets corrected.

I suspect that if this same data was run for Dak's rookie year, we would see that he got the ball out much earlier. One of Moore's primary issue was that there was no Beasley underneath outlet route being run when the deeper stuff wasn't there. Running 4 button hooks is so asinine its difficult to believe.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

I'm sorry but this made me laugh to the tilt...

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses

Yep, carve them up indeed......


Let's all pray that our running game is a factor in a big way or else same old same old.....

 

[DeaconMoss]

Dak and dunk = carving. Got it. Need only 8 more years to practice.

 

[morat1959]

Hum to me it sounds like if nobody is open he goes into panic mode and panics. Then he glitches out. shrugs

And there better be a 2-3 yard separation or he’s not releasing it.

 

[Hardline]

I'm more concerned about how many seconds Dak can hand the ball to a RB.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

Dak had:
- The 11th most pocket time at 2.5 seconds
- The 16th lowest pressure%
Dak's blocking wasn't the best in the league . . . but
- The highest INT% in the NFL, by a fair margin

Basically, the issues with blocking do not justify Dak's interceptions. Personally, I blame Kellen Moore for a lot of that but not acknowledging just how bad Dak was for throwing the ball away last year just engenders more hatred for Dak. Hopefully this year this gets corrected.

I suspect that if this same data was run for Dak's rookie year, we would see that he got the ball out much earlier. One of Moore's primary issue was that there was no Beasley underneath outlet route being run when the deeper stuff wasn't there. Running 4 button hooks is so asinine its difficult to believe.

Pocket time isn't indicative of pass protection and INT% isn't indicative of his decision making.

 

[calicowboy54]

correlation, causation

When your reads are covered, you have to hold the ball longer and are less likely to have completions.
When your reads are open, you get rid of the ball faster and are more likely to have completions.

taking away option routes will quicken up the process as QB and WR do not have to guess where the other is going with the ball.

 

[jazzcat22]

Only 20 more days until TC report day counting today.
Only 573 more Dak threads to go.