CFZ Time to pass the ball

[BoyzBlaster]

I'm sorry but this made me laugh to the tilt...

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses

Yep, carve them up indeed......


Let's all pray that our running game is a factor in a big way or else same old same old.....

Dak's attempted "tackle" was almost as bad as the pass.

 

[Jumbo075]

correlation, causation

When your reads are covered, you have to hold the ball longer and are less likely to have completions.
When your reads are open, you get rid of the ball faster and are more likely to have completions.

I think McCarthy’s goal is causation. He wants to “cause” Dak to play better. That’s what good coaches do.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Good post and good data, but I think we need to do a deep dive to continue the conversation. Are the under 2.5 second numbers so good because of the scheme KM brought which had teams playing a lot of deeper zone looks? Would those numbers stay the same if we had a higher volume of short/quick throws or does this lead to defenses adjusting to play a higher volume of tighter coverages? I don't have a hardline answer without some data around coverages that defenses played in 2023, but it's worth discussing.

I'd also be interested to see how Daks numbers in these two situations compare to the rest of the league. I'd have to believe that the majority of QBs in the league are going to have better numbers with the short passing game, but are the splits this drastic?

 

[nalam]

correlation, causation

When your reads are covered, you have to hold the ball longer and are less likely to have completions.
When your reads are open, you get rid of the ball faster and are more likely to have completions.

True, but the play callers responsibility to have options longer and shorter . Also if reads are always covered in a down with distance ( say 3rd and long) then there is no ingenuity . in JG and KM schemes that was always an issue , lets hope Mac has plans to change that and our O personnel can execute it.

 

[Diehardblues]

this is all speculation on your part jumbo, and maybe it happens, but more than likely it doesnt,.
I dont think dak and his O can consistently do a 2.5 sec release. And I dont think they will try to either.

All of the naysayers are speculating as well. It’s easy to say he never will because he hasn’t. Same spill we had with Romo.

All Jumbo is saying is Dak is enough to continue trying.

This season should tell us much more. If it falls flat on its face then we might be looking to move on from MM and Dak. What do we really have to lose at this point.

 

[Vtwin]

**POST OF THE UPCOMING 2023 SEASON**

Amazing post, @Jumbo075 !!! Thank you for this awesome breakdown and fully explanatory opening post!

Everyone should read this. Hey, @Jake , you should read this opening post slowly and carefully. It explains a lot. You just might learn and understand why it's totally unfair to blame Dak for 2022's, 2021's and several seasons before that shortfalls thanks to Kellen Moore and his failed Air Coryell system.

It's the system's fault that Dak turns into a quivering pile of jelly if his first read is not there?

A QB has to be able to adapt when things don't go according to plan. Defenses will jump all over the short routes and force the issue. If you have a QB who struggles to adjust and adapt.... you don't have a QB.

 

[Diehardblues]

I am going to take Jumbo's headline at face value instead of how he intended it.

If this team is to do anything, it will be through the air but in a more controlled drive than big play posture.

I think Moore was seduced by the big play and knew his owner loved that and his QB and receivers loved that as well. And it is harder for controlled drives to go 80 yards in 12-14 plays when one play can get half those yards.

This team will do nothing running the ball more, hell, they ran it almost 50% last season.

And McC has been around, he knows when the media has pushed something past the point and this interception thing with Prescott is ridiculous. Josh Allen had 14 and 5 fumbles lost and had everything to do with his team losing that playoff game yet all we see is about Prescott's picks, more attention paid to this one thing than anything I have seen in a long time. And this is an anomaly for him, he's not known as a turnover QB.

McC, Shottenheimer and Prescott are not going to respond to this insanity, they're going to play the game using the QB's skills, not trying to limit them. And that's passing the ball to the playmakers. In no way, shape or form is McC going to take the game out of his QB's hands and he shouldn't.

I don't care whether you like him or not, he is the only chance this team has of advancing beyond where they've been in the past. So goes Prescott, so goes the Cowboys. Better defense will certainly help but in today's game it is the offenses that get to the playoffs.

Yep, our offense with Dak has been enough to get to playoffs. He just hadn’t been enough in playoffs for a deeper run. Nor has the defense. We need both to rise up if we want to advance in playoffs.

And if we can’t win our division it means we have to win on the road. Probably 3 straight. Which is more odds against us.

We really need to root for Egirls to stumble to bolster our opportunity to win division which heightens our deeper playoff hopes.

 

[Jumbo075]

Good post and good data, but I think we need to do a deep dive to continue the conversation. Are the under 2.5 second numbers so good because of the scheme KM brought which had teams playing a lot of deeper zone looks? Would those numbers stay the same if we had a higher volume of short/quick throws or does this lead to defenses adjusting to play a higher volume of tighter coverages? I don't have a hardline answer without some data around coverages that defenses played in 2023, but it's worth discussing.

I'd also be interested to see how Daks numbers in these two situations compare to the rest of the league. I'd have to believe that the majority of QBs in the league are going to have better numbers with the short passing game, but are the splits this drastic?

Dak’s completion percentage of 77% for passes in under 2.5 seconds is at the top of the league. Only Aaron Rodgers has a higher completion rate at 80%. Dak is better than any other QB in the NFL not named Rodgers when he gets the ball out quickly.

To answer your question.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

True, but the play callers responsibility to have options longer and shorter . Also if reads are always covered in a down with distance ( say 3rd and long) then there is no ingenuity . in JG and KM schemes that was always an issue , lets hope Mac has plans to change that and our O personnel can execute it.

This was the biggest problem last year.

Constantly running on early downs put them constantly behind the sticks.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Dak’s completion percentage of 77% for passes in under 2.5 seconds is at the top of the league. Only Aaron Rodgers has a higher completion rate at 80%. Dak is better than any other QB in the NFL not named Rodgers when he gets the ball out quickly.

To answer your question.

Where are you pulling this from, out of curiosity?

This is good data.

 

[Motorola]

Only 20 more days until TC report day counting today.
Only 573 more Dak threads to go.

'Only 20 more days until TC report day...'
Then the Prescott training camp threads will begin. (Pobably two or three daily.)

 

[Jumbo075]

Where are you pulling this from, out of curiosity?

This is good data.

Analytics, Baby.

I’ve always been a big stats guy. I have my own power ranking system the it took me 6 years to develop, but is highly reliable. I used to publish it for years at the Cowboys website.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Analytics, Baby.

Yes, from where?

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

It took Peyton Manning 8 seasons to finally break through and win his first Super Bowl. Tim Brady, drafted a year after Manning had already won 3 by that time. It took the GOAT Michael Jordan 7 seasons to win his first championship.

Even all time great players sometimes take a while to win. The Cowboys under Landry was the team that couldn’t win the big game…until the did in 1971 in Landry’s 12th season as head coach.

Foreclosing any thought that Dak, who has never played in a system that incorporates WCO themes, will automatically fail assumes facts not in evidence. The odds are against Dak winning, just like they are against most NFL QB’s. But they aren’t zero. Dallas has had 7 really good QB’s over their history, and a plethora of others who weren’t as good. They’ve had three QB’s who were #1 pucks in the draft, and another who was a top 5 pick that took two different teams to the Super Bowl. Only Roger and Troy have rings.

So yes, the odds are against Dak. He’s not a top 5 QB in the league. But he’s more than good enough to win if the team is built and coached properly. Dak is in the top 25% of NFL QB’s in todays NFL. He’s better than Flacco, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer and others who have won the big game. Does Dak need help? Absolutely. He cannot carry a team like Mahomes can. But who else in this league is in Mahomes class?

I’m sure you and I can both produce a long list of 1st round pick QB busts. We had one not too long ago backing up Romo in 2015.

No one who “supports” Dak wouldn’t trade him in a minute if you could guarantee we’d get someone like Mahomes. But what guarantees do you have that we won’t get Brandon Wheeden, or Blake Bortles, or some other first round bust.

Giving McCarthy a chance to design an offense to work to Dak’s strengths isn’t a bad strategy. It certainly isn’t any worse than taking a crap shot at a late 1st round QB, or trading 5 premium draft picks for a top 10 pick who can bust faster than you can say Jameis Winston or Blaine Gabbert.

Dak Prescott will NEVER lead any team to the Super Bowl.

He will always find a way to fail. You can put the kid gloves on him all you want, but at some point he will have to make a play and he will fail. It’s in his DNA.

You can find a lot of QBs that will fail you. Dak is one of them. He’s just highly paid.

If there’s no Zeke in 2016 Dak is selling cars somewhere around Mississippi State.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Dak Prescott will NEVER lead any team to the Super Bowl.

He will always find a way to fail. You can put the kid gloves on him all you want, but at some point he will have to make a play and he will fail. It’s in his DNA.

You can find a lot of QBs that will fail you. Dak is one of them. He’s just highly paid.

If there’s no Zeke in 2016 Dak is selling cars somewhere around Mississippi State.

Only # 4 is left give it time give it time.......
Poor Zeke literally sacrificed his career for his bud Dakko, can you imagine what he could have done if the defenses he faced feared our passing game.

 

[CCBoy]

Also sounds like the more time Dak has to read and react….the worse the results are.

2.5 seconds applies to the entire NFL as the standard for success for all QB's.

 

[CCBoy]

Analytics, Baby.

I’ve always been a big stats guy. I have my own power ranking system the it took me 6 years to develop, but is highly reliable. I used to publish it for years at the Cowboys website.

 

[blueblood70]

correlation, causation

When your reads are covered, you have to hold the ball longer and are less likely to have completions.
When your reads are open, you get rid of the ball faster and are more likely to have completions.

100

to add to that, when the quarterback looks up and he has three receivers within three yards of each otherhe might hesitate....

 

[DandyDon52]

All of the naysayers are speculating as well. It’s easy to say he never will because he hasn’t. Same spill we had with Romo.

All Jumbo is saying is Dak is enough to continue trying.

This season should tell us much more. If it falls flat on its face then we might be looking to move on from MM and Dak. What do we really have to lose at this point.

yes they can move on if they dont extend dak before the season starts.
I read here that jones boys are open to extending him right now or before season starts, so have to see if that happens or not.
And yes everyone is speculating, it is just funny how people speculate in a way so that what they want to happen happens. lol

I think this season is hard to speculate on, as much is changing, so we wont know till we see some games, and against good teams.

 

[DandyDon52]

2.5 seconds applies to the entire NFL as the standard for success for all QB's.

yes , and it is hard to do, and it isnt going to happen 100% of the time.Sometimes your going to call plays that require more time.