CFZ Time to pass the ball

[Mac_MaloneV1]

I think the biggest scheme changes we're going to see is throwing less on first down. Look at the company they kept last year, vs the premier teams in the league. Good offenses throw the ball on early downs, bad offenses try to run it.


It is a miracle, and a testament to Dak (and to some extent Kellen) that this offense was so productive when it was so abysmal on first down.

 

[Captain-Crash]

Also sounds like the more time Dak has to read and react….the worse the results are.

hum this gives more support that his progression skills suck, or in other terms he can't read well

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

When the Cowboys season doesn’t go well at least watching Dak fans melt down when Dak fails will provide more than enough entertainment to make up for the failure he brings.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

I'm just glad they finally recognize that keeping the status quo with Dak isn't a playoff winning formula and they're moving on to something different. Don't know if making correct quick reads and hitting the receivers in stride is a winning formula either but we'll see,,, at least the defenses will be limited on the disguises they can use.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

hum this gives more support that his progression skills suck, or in other terms he can't read well

He was a 4th rounder that needed injuries to make the team for a reason.

He’s just an over glorified practice squad guy that if not for Zeke would probably be selling cars right now somewhere around Mississippi State.

 

[Diehardblues]

Great info and stats as usual from Jumbo, our resident engineering guru.

While MM has suggested he wants to run more most of the moves in offseason would suggest we are going to pass more. We’ve even renamed it Texas Coast offense .

And without a power style RB Im not sure anyone is expecting us to be a pound the rock type offense without a RB like Murray or Elliott. Not to mention the concerns on OL.

Since the impact of play action depends on the threat and effectiveness of running the ball if our rushing game isn’t as effective how will that affect our QB’s release of the ball. Seems like it will force him to hang on to it longer which wouldnt play into our strengths as mentioned .

This is a great scheme and plan but if it relies on defenses thinking we are going to pound the rock and we aren’t able to then it could compromise its effectiveness.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Only 20 more days until TC report day counting today.
Only 573 more Dak threads to go.

 

[America's Cowboy]

I think the biggest scheme changes we're going to see is throwing less on first down. Look at the company they kept last year, vs the premier teams in the league. Good offenses throw the ball on early downs, bad offenses try to run it.


It is a miracle, and a testament to Dak (and to some extent Kellen) that this offense was so productive when it was so abysmal on first down.

Excellent info stats, @Mac_MaloneV1 !!!

For the Cowboys to be among the worst at rushing on early downs but only gaining 2 or fewer yards (which means the Offense was often in 3rd & long), this proves our Oline and dismal running attack ability were what hurt our Offense all season long. The 49ers knew that, hence why they only used their front 4 D-line to stop the run and attack the passer while keeping 7 back in coverage. Pretty much were not worried about our ability to run the ball, allowing them to concentrate on shutting down our passing game, hence the results.

If this Cowboys Offense is to succeed in the playoffs, the Oline, RB crew and rushing attack has to seriously improve going forward.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Excellent info stats, @Mac_MaloneV1 !!!

For the Cowboys to be among the worst at rushing on early downs but only gaining 2 or fewer yards (which means the Offense was often in 3rd & long), this proves our Oline and dismal running attack ability were what hurt our Offense all season long. The 49ers knew that, hence why they only used their front 4 D-line to stop the run and attack the passer while keeping 7 back in coverage. Pretty much were not worried about our ability to run the ball, allowing them to concentrate on shutting down our passing game, hence the results.

If this Cowboys Offense is to succeed in the playoffs, the Oline, RB crew and rushing attack has to seriously improve going forward.

I think the bigger problem is the decision to run, rather than the effectiveness to run.

 

[FanofJerry]

Dallas seems to be the poster child for running for short yardage on first downs and throwing passes on 3rd down that arent pass the first down marker.

 

[America's Cowboy]

I think the bigger problem is the decision to run, rather than the effectiveness to run.

Agreed, but it could all be improved upon with a better performing and healthy Oline.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds058]

Hum to me it sounds like if nobody is open he goes into panic mode and panics. Then he glitches out. shrugs

Lol, Capt look at your likes, the Horsemen.

 

[GMO415]

Dallas wins when Dak passes less than the team running. MM has it down....Texas Coast Offense. Run the rock.

 

[Jumbo075]

I'm just glad they finally recognize that keeping the status quo with Dak isn't a playoff winning formula and they're moving on to something different. Don't know if making correct quick reads and hitting the receivers in stride is a winning formula either but we'll see,,, at least the defenses will be limited on the disguises they can use.

Really good point. We can’t know if a change will work, but we do know the stays quo wasn’t working. Who cares if McCarthy can match the offensive production of Moore’s offense in the regular season? The goal is playoff wins, not having the #1 scoring offense. If the new system is more robust for the playoffs, most fans can live with less production. If the new system produces fewer turnovers, they want need to be as productive to overcome those turnovers.

 

[CouchCoach]

I am going to take Jumbo's headline at face value instead of how he intended it.

If this team is to do anything, it will be through the air but in a more controlled drive than big play posture.

I think Moore was seduced by the big play and knew his owner loved that and his QB and receivers loved that as well. And it is harder for controlled drives to go 80 yards in 12-14 plays when one play can get half those yards.

This team will do nothing running the ball more, hell, they ran it almost 50% last season.

And McC has been around, he knows when the media has pushed something past the point and this interception thing with Prescott is ridiculous. Josh Allen had 14 and 5 fumbles lost and had everything to do with his team losing that playoff game yet all we see is about Prescott's picks, more attention paid to this one thing than anything I have seen in a long time. And this is an anomaly for him, he's not known as a turnover QB.

McC, Shottenheimer and Prescott are not going to respond to this insanity, they're going to play the game using the QB's skills, not trying to limit them. And that's passing the ball to the playmakers. In no way, shape or form is McC going to take the game out of his QB's hands and he shouldn't.

I don't care whether you like him or not, he is the only chance this team has of advancing beyond where they've been in the past. So goes Prescott, so goes the Cowboys. Better defense will certainly help but in today's game it is the offenses that get to the playoffs.

 

[ESisback]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

Some say run, others more pass, but quicker, shorter passes. IMHO, the key is when we do each (better situational playcalling), and how we disguise it. Mix it up and keep ‘em guessing!

 

[DandyDon52]

I'm sorry but this made me laugh to the tilt...

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses

Yep, carve them up indeed......


Let's all pray that our running game is a factor in a big way or else same old same old.....

yeah dak will carve teams up with those short passes ! lol.
I have to say though I counted and it was 3.5 seconds on the release, so that was too slow.

Jumbos theory is flawed because his time was 2.5 seconds, which is really fast, and most qb's cant do that consistently.
Brady in his prime could do it, but most cant.
And then a guy like mahomes, his plays are mostly 3.5 are longer, way longer and he does pretty well.

So I conclude dak cant do the 2.5 sec pass thing, and it wouldnt fix him if he trys to do it.

 

[Jumbo075]

When the Cowboys season doesn’t go well at least watching Dak fans melt down when Dak fails will provide more than enough entertainment to make up for the failure he brings.

It took Peyton Manning 8 seasons to finally break through and win his first Super Bowl. Tim Brady, drafted a year after Manning had already won 3 by that time. It took the GOAT Michael Jordan 7 seasons to win his first championship.

Even all time great players sometimes take a while to win. The Cowboys under Landry was the team that couldn’t win the big game…until the did in 1971 in Landry’s 12th season as head coach.

Foreclosing any thought that Dak, who has never played in a system that incorporates WCO themes, will automatically fail assumes facts not in evidence. The odds are against Dak winning, just like they are against most NFL QB’s. But they aren’t zero. Dallas has had 7 really good QB’s over their history, and a plethora of others who weren’t as good. They’ve had three QB’s who were #1 pucks in the draft, and another who was a top 5 pick that took two different teams to the Super Bowl. Only Roger and Troy have rings.

So yes, the odds are against Dak. He’s not a top 5 QB in the league. But he’s more than good enough to win if the team is built and coached properly. Dak is in the top 25% of NFL QB’s in todays NFL. He’s better than Flacco, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer and others who have won the big game. Does Dak need help? Absolutely. He cannot carry a team like Mahomes can. But who else in this league is in Mahomes class?

I’m sure you and I can both produce a long list of 1st round pick QB busts. We had one not too long ago backing up Romo in 2015.

No one who “supports” Dak wouldn’t trade him in a minute if you could guarantee we’d get someone like Mahomes. But what guarantees do you have that we won’t get Brandon Wheeden, or Blake Bortles, or some other first round bust.

Giving McCarthy a chance to design an offense to work to Dak’s strengths isn’t a bad strategy. It certainly isn’t any worse than taking a crap shot at a late 1st round QB, or trading 5 premium draft picks for a top 10 pick who can bust faster than you can say Jameis Winston or Blaine Gabbert.

 

[DandyDon52]

Interesting statline.

In 2022: When Dak threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he had a 77% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions with a 99.3 passer rating. When Dak held onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he had a 57.8% completion rate, threw 20 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions with a 87.5 passer rating. These numbers include the playoffs last year.

In 2022, Dak averaged 2.7 seconds holding the ball per pass attempt.

Some take-always: Kellen Moore’s system was modeled on the Air Coryell model. Coryell was all about being aggressive with long-developing plays thrown farther downfield. Moore’s system required Dak to hold onto the ball longer, which also meant that the defense was anticipating the throws more, which led to a big increase in interceptions.

Also, McCarthy’s historical strength as a play caller is his use of the play action pass with quick short throws that carve up the defense with routes under 15 yards.

If McCarthy can provide an adjusted scheme, which has Dak throwing more short, quick passes to receivers running in stride, then Dak can carve up defenses with a high completion percentage, and much lower turnover rate.

This plays to Dak’s strengths, and also leads to fewer sacks from an Oline group that is transitioning to new personnel (3 new starters in last 3 seasons, and maybe a 4th new starter this season.

The key seems to be the time it takes to get the ball out of Dak’s hands. Keep it under 2.5 seconds and he’s among the best in the league. Over that, Dak begins to force balls into defenses that are waiting for him.

So, I think McCarthy, who recently hired an analytics guru for his staff, is going to create a scheme more friendly to Dak, and get the ball out more quickly. All the talk about running it more may or may not happen. But McCarthy is setting up the league to EXPECT more running so the play action passing game he’s so good at calling will work.

this is all speculation on your part jumbo, and maybe it happens, but more than likely it doesnt,.
I dont think dak and his O can consistently do a 2.5 sec release. And I dont think they will try to either.

 

[CouchCoach]

I think one thing that will change from Moore to McC is the read progression. That is one of the real advantages of the WCO when run like one.

When the play is by design and that short receiver is the hot read and not the checkdown, makes a huge difference for the player getting the ball.