Trade Witten?

[percyhoward]

Hmm, I guess relative to other TEs he ranks higher than I would have expected. But I don't think that number is big enough to really change my mind about thinking that we could actually be more explosive without him.

What's funny is, if you take the top 32 targeted TE, Witten ranked 14th in yards per target.

If you take the top 32 targeted WR, Dez ranked 17th.

 

[ShiningStar]

What's funny is, if you take the top 32 targeted TE, Witten ranked 14th in yards per target.

If you take the top 32 targeted WR, Dez ranked 17th.

Whats even more funny...all these stats didn't get us into the playoffs. ...why is that?

 

[percyhoward]

Whats even more funny...all these stats didn't get us into the playoffs. ...why is that?

Defense ranked 26th in the same category, for starters.

Point is that Witten's yards per target (as well as the pass rating on those targets) ranked higher among TE than Dez's did among WR.

 

[ryanbabs]

If the Cowboys trade him I'll personally be very upset. He represents a lot of what this team seriously lacks. Leadership, discipline, class, etc. and from a personal note, I've met him and he's a very stand up guy.

He would be more than missed and look how long Tony Gonzalez was around. He's not too old and still very productive!

 

[birdwells1]

What's funny is, if you take the top 32 targeted TE, Witten ranked 14th in yards per target.

If you take the top 32 targeted WR, Dez ranked 17th.

Again good research, but there are 32 starting te and 64 starting wr add in the 3 wide set (ala Denver) and Dez's ranking doesn't seem so bad.

 

[Future]

What's funny is, if you take the top 32 targeted TE, Witten ranked 14th in yards per target.

If you take the top 32 targeted WR, Dez ranked 17th.

That doesn't really prove anything because Dez was used as a chain mover more than most of those guys. Of WRs with at least 90 catches, Dez ranked 4th in YPC and 1st in first down %.

 

[Risen Star]

Defense ranked 26th in the same category, for starters.

Point is that Witten's yards per target (as well as the pass rating on those targets) ranked higher among TE than Dez's did among WR.

Everybody should take a good hard look at your signature, Percy.

 

[Redball Express]

It's seemingly the talk of NFL podcasts and draft websites with plenty of teams likely to desire his services and us desperately in need of cap space. So, would you do it? If so what would it take? I think a high 2nd rounder would be enough given this draft class. He'll be 32 at the start of next season and can't have many more seasons left in the tank.

You are talking about Romo's chief security blanket.

He's a shoe-in HofF.player.

He a guy you can rework maybe.

 

[percyhoward]

Again good research, but there are 32 starting te and 64 starting wr add in the 3 wide set (ala Denver) and Dez's ranking doesn't seem so bad.

There are only 32 starting #1 WR. The 16 WR with more yards per target than Dez come from 15 different teams. Witten's YPT among TE is better than Dez's among #1 WR.

But it's not that their rankings are bad anyway, it's that the rating on their targets is more important because the rating includes YPT. Their high TD and low INT rates on their targets factor into winning games more than simple YPT, and certainly more than YAC all by itself.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

I never said he sucks, don't exaggerate.

Its easy to be reliable when you hardly ever get targeted more than 10 yards down the field. The guy is a check down, more often than not, its easy to get a high passer rating to those guys.

Ok. So now he's reliable but only because his routes are short.

That attempt to try and make your original statement look less silly is even more silly.

 

[percyhoward]

That doesn't really prove anything because Dez was used as a chain mover more than most of those guys. Of WRs with at least 90 catches, Dez ranked 4th in YPC and 1st in first down %.

That's a sample of a grand total of 9 players you're talking about there. If you'd said "at least 85 catches," Dez drops to 9th in yards per catch, and 11th in yards per target. Out of 15 players (still less than half the starting #1 WR in the league).

Expand it to include the top 32 targeted WR and TE, and be done with it.

Yards per Target
Witten 14th
Bryant 17th

Yards per Catch
Witten 10th
Bryant 17th

20+ Yard Receptions
Witten 3rd
Bryant 17th

1st Down % per Target
Witten 14th
Bryant 12th

Success Rate*
Witten 11th
Bryant 19th

Pass Rating
Witten 9th
Bryant 11th

*percentage of targets that had a positiive effect on expected points. For example, it rewards 9-yard receptions on 1st down as well as 3-yard receptions on 3rd and 2.

And these numbers aren't skewed by one player getting a disproportionate number of targets for his position. Dez ranked 6th in total targets among WR, and Witten ranked 3rd among TE. In fact, the high number of targets is what makes the pass ratings so valuable.

 

[Future]

That's a sample of a grand total of 9 players you're talking about there. If you'd said "at least 85 catches," Dez drops to 9th in yards per catch, and 11th in yards per target. Out of 15 players (still less than half the starting #1 WR in the league).

Expand it to include the top 32 targeted WR and TE, and be done with it.

Yards per Target
Witten 14th
Bryant 17th

Yards per Catch
Witten 10th
Bryant 17th

20+ Yard Receptions
Witten 3rd
Bryant 17th

1st Down % per Target
Witten 14th
Bryant 12th

Success Rate*
Witten 11th
Bryant 19th

Pass Rating
Witten 9th
Bryant 11th

*percentage of targets that had a positiive effect on expected points. For example, it rewards 9-yard receptions on 1st down as well as 3-yard receptions on 3rd and 2.

And these numbers aren't skewed by one player getting a disproportionate number of targets for his position. Dez ranked 6th in total targets among WR, and Witten ranked 3rd among TE. In fact, the high number of targets is what makes the pass ratings so valuable.

I DO NOT CARE

And comparing Dez and Witten to the top 32 guys is dumb b/c there are only like a dozen TEs in the league who get targeted often.

Witten is not just a check down, if that's what I said, I was exaggerating. But its not like Witten is an explosive player. If you watch Dallas and think that Witten is this great receiver, then this argument will just go on and on and on.

 

[Future]

Ok. So now he's reliable but only because his routes are short.

That attempt to try and make your original statement look less silly is even more silly.

Its easy to be reliable inside of 10 yards. I'll say it 10 million times if I have to. If Dez only ran 8 yards and turned around every play, he'd be a lot more reliable too.

 

[percyhoward]

Its easy to be reliable inside of 10 yards. I'll say it 10 million times if I have to. If Dez only ran 8 yards and turned around every play, he'd be a lot more reliable too...And comparing Dez and Witten to the top 32 guys is dumb b/c there are only like a dozen TEs in the league who get targeted often.

Compare them straight up, then. Dez averaged 7.9 yards per target and Witten averaged 7.8, although I do realize that you may not care about that.

 

[the_h0wey]

It's seemingly the talk of NFL podcasts and draft websites with plenty of teams likely to desire his services and us desperately in need of cap space. So, would you do it? If so what would it take? I think a high 2nd rounder would be enough given this draft class. He'll be 32 at the start of next season and can't have many more seasons left in the tank.

If you truly believe Escobar can be a capable starter and we get a 2nd for him then yes, trade him.

 

[Future]

Compare them straight up, then. Dez averaged 7.9 yards per target and Witten averaged 7.8, although I do realize that you may not care about that.

What is your point though? Dez is infinitely more explosive, and more of a threat. Witten is little more than a security blanket, regardless of what the stats say.

 

[percyhoward]

What is your point though? Dez is infinitely more explosive, and more of a threat. Witten is little more than a security blanket, regardless of what the stats say.

I guess my point is that if you're going to trade one of the best players at his position in the NFL, you'd better have a plan.