Brady made White look like a 100M olympic sprinter. yet he was able to make throws, read a defense and go through his reads and be accurate. none of which applies to Lance. he can run circles? beause he is hesitant to make throws, can't read a defense thus he has to hold on to the ball so WR is 5 yards open and he has to scramble.
Very extreme take. Mike White has a great arm, but despite that he is a career backup. Athleticism and mobility are crucial for QBs in the modern game. Does Lance still have room to improve? Absolutely. What makes you think he cant read a defense though? Zero turnovers so far, and had an average time to throw of just 2.6 seconds against LV. It's just one game and comes with the small sample size alert, but in general I'm seeing a guy who understands defenses and basic coverages. The only true worry I have with Lance is I'm not sure he understands the offense nearly as well. Good video was posted here last week after the Rams game that broke down throw by throw that goes more in depth here. So far this preseason the guy has really only struggled when the defense has gotten pressure rushing 4 guys.
With a clean pocket:
30-47 with an average of 8 air yards per throw and an adjusted completion % of 74%
To compare Dak last season was a 72% completion %, 7.8 air yards and an adjusted completion % of 79%
Against the blitz:
13-24 with an average of 9 air yards and AC% of 71%
Dak was 69% with 8.2 air yards and AC% of 79%
When he is under pressure without a blitz his completion percentage falls under 60% and his air yards fall under 4 yards per throw. This is a concern, but isn't that abnormal for someone who simply doesn't have a ton of snaps under his belt.
Lance is not on the right track. lance is way behind where he needs to be in year 4. Love who he is compared to was years ahead even prior to last year. Many QBs sat on the bench, then played and played well. they learned their craft. the fact that he needs another few years to just possibly, maybe be a just a good QB should tell you a lot.
Pre 2024 numbers:
Jordan Love: 50-83 606 yards 3TD 3INT (26 yards rushing)
Trey Lance: 56-102 797 yards 5TD 3INT (235 yards rushing)
This was during Trey Lance's 21 and 22 years old seasons. Love was 23 & 24 years old with over 1,000 pass attempts in college. Lance had 318 attempts in college.
Unless you have some in depth tape break down of why Love was years ahead of Lance I'm just not seeing it in the data, although it is a small sample size for both QBs. Love was off the charts good in 2022 in limited time, but also only registered four throws under any sort of pressure.
and I find it funny that people are keeping yard and distance and make justification for the 3rd over all pick in year 4.
he tends to dump the ball. he had 4.7 YPA in first preseason game. he was 65 ypa in second game which would put him towards the bottom of the league.
his ceiling at best, at best is being another Dak, running around included...and you all complain about Dak.
I'm a big YPA guy, but 6.5 isn't horrible on a game to game basis. Dak last season had 7 games where he registered a YPA in the 6s or less.
For preseason or smaller sample sizes I would really look at depth of target in addition to YPA. Lance's receivers have a drop rate of 13% this preseason, compared to Dak at 6.6% last year which does bring that YPA down slightly. Lance is only hitting about 7 yards per throw compared to Dak at 8.4 last year. I completely agree that Lance needs to move the ball down field more and I hope to see that in the next game, but the numbers dont seem to indicate that Lance being mr dink and dunk is quite as bad as the narrative around here.
Personally I would have no issues if Lances ceiling was similar to Daks. Dak is a very good QB, and I really don't hate the guy at all. I'm not a fan of paying him $65M per year, but I'm really not a fan of paying most QBs that type of money. If Lance were to put up 90% of Daks numbers through the air combined with his ability to make plays with his legs sign me up for that for the next few years.
