CFZ Trey Lance potentially a free agent in 2025 creates some interesting scenarios

[Bobhaze]

When drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft by the niners, Trey Lance signed a 4 year, $34 million contract, including a $22 mil signing bonus, with $34 mil guaranteed, and an average annual salary of roughly $8.5 million.

According to Spotrac.com in 2023, Lance will earn a base salary of $940,000, while carrying a cap hit this year of $940K and a dead cap value of $6.25 million. He has two years remaining on that rookie deal he signed in ‘21.
Here‘s the link to the Spotrac info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/trey-lance-72382/

This creates an interesting scenario for the Cowboys. Lance’s rookie deal will end in 2024, making him a potential FA. We all know the Cowboys are negotiating a potential extension with Dak and current backup Cooper Rush just signed a two year $5 million contract with $2.75 mil guaranteed. I can’t see this team with all 3 for two straight years.

With the addition of Lance to the QB room, the Cowboys are now ranked in the top 5 in QB cap spending. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but I do believe that is probably not where they want to stay long term with the potential Cedee Lamb and Micah Parsons deals looming.

This sets up a very interesting two years for the Cowboys and their future. The 2023 season is already looking very entertaining!

 

[CowboyRoy]

When drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft by the niners, Trey Lance signed a 4 year, $34 million contract, including a $22 mil signing bonus, with $34 mil guaranteed, and an average annual salary of roughly $8.5 million.

According to Spotrac.com in 2023, Lance will earn a base salary of $940,000, while carrying a cap hit this year of $940K and a dead cap value of $6.25 million. He has two years remaining on that rookie deal he signed in ‘21.
Here‘s the link to the Spotrac info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/trey-lance-72382/

This creates an interesting scenario for the Cowboys. Lance’s rookie deal will end in 2024, making him a potential FA. We all know the Cowboys are negotiating a potential extension with Dak and current backup Cooper Rush just signed a two year $5 million contract with $2.75 mil guaranteed. I can’t see this team with all 3 for two straight years.

With the addition of Lance to the QB room, the Cowboys are now ranked in the top 5 in QB cap spending. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but I do believe that is probably not where they want to stay long term with the potential Cedee Lamb and Micah Parsons deals looming.

This sets up a very interesting two years for the Cowboys and their future. The 2023 season is already looking very entertaining!

Not really. Its pretty straight forward. Dak is the man for the next 2 or 3 years minimum. Lance will be here developing. If he can develop quick enough we can possibly move on from Rush after next season. Pretty straight forward time line. Rush and Lance over the next two years are costing minimal money. Now possibly in the 3rd year if the Cowboys keep Lance for the 5th year option his salary gets bigger. By then Rush isnt signed anyway.

 

[Bobhaze]

Not really. Its pretty straight forward. Dak is the man for the next 2 or 3 years minimum. Lance will be here developing. If he can develop quick enough we can possibly move on from Rush after next season. Pretty straight forward time line. Rush and Lance over the next two years are costing minimal money. Now possibly in the 3rd year if the Cowboys keep Lance for the 5th year option his salary gets bigger. By then Rush isnt signed anyway.

I pretty much agree with most of what you said here Roy. But your scenario hinges on two things:

1. Will Trey Lance be ok being a backup with little PT for 2-3 years?
2. When his contract is up in two years, if Dak has an extension, can the Cowboys pay Lance enough to stay?

And I agree with you that Cooper Rush will not be in the long term equation.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I pretty much agree with most of what you said here Roy. But your scenario hinges on two things:

1. Will Trey Lance be ok being a backup with little PT for 2-3 years?
2. When his contract is up in two years, if Dak has an extension, can the Cowboys pay Lance enough to stay?

And I agree with you that Cooper Rush will not be in the long term equation.

That's a big reason why none of this makes any sense to me. The timing of the contracts just doesn't match up.

 

[Bobhaze]

That's a big reason why none of this makes any sense to me. The timing of the contracts just doesn't match up.

It certainly raises some interesting questions. And it’s not just the timing of the contracts. Wish we could’ve acquired TL at the beginning of TC so we could have seen him earlier. Now the chances of him playing much this year will be diminished IMO. It will take some time to learn the offense, etc.

 

[Diehardblues]

Trey is a longer time investment . Rush guaranteed contract is only about half of his 2 year deal so he could be released after this season without much cap hit.

Cowboys have 3 years ( including this year) to develop Trey. He’s a longer time investment for hopefully replacing Dak in about 3 years .

 

[TequilaCowboy]

When drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft by the niners, Trey Lance signed a 4 year, $34 million contract, including a $22 mil signing bonus, with $34 mil guaranteed, and an average annual salary of roughly $8.5 million.

According to Spotrac.com in 2023, Lance will earn a base salary of $940,000, while carrying a cap hit this year of $940K and a dead cap value of $6.25 million. He has two years remaining on that rookie deal he signed in ‘21.
Here‘s the link to the Spotrac info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/trey-lance-72382/

This creates an interesting scenario for the Cowboys. Lance’s rookie deal will end in 2024, making him a potential FA. We all know the Cowboys are negotiating a potential extension with Dak and current backup Cooper Rush just signed a two year $5 million contract with $2.75 mil guaranteed. I can’t see this team with all 3 for two straight years.

With the addition of Lance to the QB room, the Cowboys are now ranked in the top 5 in QB cap spending. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but I do believe that is probably not where they want to stay long term with the potential Cedee Lamb and Micah Parsons deals looming.

This sets up a very interesting two years for the Cowboys and their future. The 2023 season is already looking very entertaining!

All i can wonder is......at what point can we bring back the Nooch...?? LOL.....

 

[Zman5]

I thought all first round picks were subject to 5th year option. Didn't that carry over with the trade?

 

[T-RO]

Two thoughts:

1. The Cowboys do have a 5th year option with Lance, to keep Lance through 2025. The problem? Given Lance's high draft selection that 5th year option would come at a price tag of over $22 million--it's locked into the CBA!! That seems like no option at all. And if Lance is largely redshirted this season, he will only have one offseason and camp to suddenly take the big jump he needs. Short of some injuries I don't see how Trey is going to get the needed game reps to develop as a player.

2. Dak has vice grip leverage on the FO. Play him, sit him, trade him, cut him...Dallas will absolutely owe Dak $60 million next year no matter, unless that contract is extended and re-worked. Goodbye to Micah or Lamb (maybe both) if Dallas can't extend/reformulate Dak's contract. Those wishing for Dallas to cut ways with Dak seriously don't appreciate the consequences.

 

[T-RO]

Cowboys have 3 years ( including this year) to develop Trey.

No, they really don't. Please see my post above.

The only way Dallas has lots of development time with Trey is to extend his contract, which would be quite a gamble.

 

[Diehardblues]

No, they really don't. Please see my post above.

The only way Dallas has lots of development time with Trey is to extend his contract, which would be quite a gamble.

They’ll extend Dak “sooner rather than later “ were Stephen’s words Sat night at halftime. And will prob extend Trey before his 5th season if they are intent he’s the heir apparent.

I agree they prob won’t want to pay his 5th season contract.

 

[T-RO]

They’ll extend Dak “sooner rather than later “ were Stephen’s words Sat night at halftime. And will prob extend Trey before his 5th season if they are intent he’s the heir apparent.

Cowboys have still must (or would like) to pay for the following:
-Dak extension
-Micah, who will be most expensive defensive player in league
-Lamb
-Steele
-Biadasz

It will be incredibly difficult to extend Trey, unless his value drops like a rock. The likely best case scenario is that Lance looks great at some point and Cowboys can trade him for a higher pick.

 

[Jake]

When drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft by the niners, Trey Lance signed a 4 year, $34 million contract, including a $22 mil signing bonus, with $34 mil guaranteed, and an average annual salary of roughly $8.5 million.

According to Spotrac.com in 2023, Lance will earn a base salary of $940,000, while carrying a cap hit this year of $940K and a dead cap value of $6.25 million. He has two years remaining on that rookie deal he signed in ‘21.
Here‘s the link to the Spotrac info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/trey-lance-72382/

This creates an interesting scenario for the Cowboys. Lance’s rookie deal will end in 2024, making him a potential FA. We all know the Cowboys are negotiating a potential extension with Dak and current backup Cooper Rush just signed a two year $5 million contract with $2.75 mil guaranteed. I can’t see this team with all 3 for two straight years.

With the addition of Lance to the QB room, the Cowboys are now ranked in the top 5 in QB cap spending. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but I do believe that is probably not where they want to stay long term with the potential Cedee Lamb and Micah Parsons deals looming.

This sets up a very interesting two years for the Cowboys and their future. The 2023 season is already looking very entertaining!

With Lance being a first round draft pick, the Cowboys hold a 5th year option should they choose to exercise it.

Dak is the man for now, but Jerry didn't make this trade because he was bored. Jerry paid Dak big money. He expects more than a wild card win. Dak needs to deliver.

 

[T-RO]

With Lance being a first round draft pick, the Cowboys hold a 5th year option should they choose to exercise it.

Have you seen what that 5th year option would cost? (hint: a lot!). The 5th year option is derived via formula in the CBA. Because Lance was 3rd pick + a QB...the price tag is likely completely untenable.

5th year formula:
https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

Bob Sturm in his sub stack article calculated it would be north of $22 million!

 

[Bobhaze]

Trey is a longer time investment . Rush guaranteed contract is only about half of his 2 year deal so he could be released after this season without much cap hit.

Cowboys have 3 years ( including this year) to develop Trey. He’s a longer time investment for hopefully replacing Dak in about 3 years .

I understand that Greg but how are the Cowboys going to be able to develop Lance if he’s not playing much? I’m not saying they can’t but if they’re serious about extending Dak as they say they are and still want to develop Lance…it just doesn’t completely add up to me.

With Lance being a first round draft pick, the Cowboys hold a 5th year option should they choose to exercise it.

Dak is the man for now, but Jerry didn't make this trade because he was bored. Jerry paid Dak big money. He expects more than a wild card win. Dak needs to deliver.

I agree Dak needs to deliver. The question for me is what does “deliver” mean? An NFC championship game appearance? A SB win or appearance? I’m all for putting competitive pressure on Dak but using Trey Lance as the pressure seems strange. I’m not against it, I just don’t see how this works.

 

[rags747]

Lamb at close to $30m is the one that is Going to be a problem. Can we afford to pay a receiver that much?

 

[Redsfan_83]

Not really. Its pretty straight forward. Dak is the man for the next 2 or 3 years minimum. Lance will be here developing. If he can develop quick enough we can possibly move on from Rush after next season. Pretty straight forward time line. Rush and Lance over the next two years are costing minimal money. Now possibly in the 3rd year if the Cowboys keep Lance for the 5th year option his salary gets bigger. By then Rush isnt signed anyway.

Full moon is tonight I think, which makes sense because I agree with you lol

 

[USArmyVet]

Two thoughts:

1. The Cowboys do have a 5th year option with Lance, to keep Lance through 2025. The problem? Given Lance's high draft selection that 5th year option would come at a price tag of over $22 million--it's locked into the CBA!! That seems like no option at all. And if Lance is largely redshirted this season, he will only have one offseason and camp to suddenly take the big jump he needs. Short of some injuries I don't see how Trey is going to get the needed game reps to develop as a player.

2. Dak has vice grip leverage on the FO. Play him, sit him, trade him, cut him...Dallas will absolutely owe Dak $60 million next year no matter, unless that contract is extended and re-worked. Goodbye to Micah or Lamb (maybe both) if Dallas can't extend/reformulate Dak's contract. Those wishing for Dallas to cut ways with Dak seriously don't appreciate the consequences.

Review Dak's contract again. Dallas would not eat $60M next season if Dak is not extended and Dak refuses to drop his no-trade clause, resulting in a post-June 1st release.
According to Over the Cap, Dallas saves $34M against the cap in 2024 and $11M in 2025 with a net loss of $11M in 2026 as the dead money would get spread out over multiple years, not just one season. Take into account Dak's cap hit in those years and you have the referenced cap savings.

So while some want to say Dallas has zero options and that Dak holds all the cards, JJ just reshuffled the deck by trading for Lance.

 

[John813]

Lamb at close to $30m is the one that is Going to be a problem. Can we afford to pay a receiver that much?

Yes. Low upfront cap hits with restructuring. Rinse and repeat with Diggs, Parsons etc...


IMO Dallas is in no rush to re-sign Dak. I think the preliminary talks about a deal were just that. Preliminary.
The time they need to extend or feel some pain is next year.
Also, IMO, with a full season with Lance, I think the coaching staff and F.O. will have a good idea where they stand with Lance and his future here. Odds are nothing comes of it, but if he clicks here then maybe that could start some interesting scenarios.
I think at worst Lance is the #2 next season if he shows any grasp of the playbook/confidence. Rush will probably be cut, unless Lance is terrible.

Review Dak's contract again. Dallas would not eat $60M next season if Dak is not extended and Dak refuses to drop his no-trade clause, resulting in a post-June 1st release.
According to Over the Cap, Dallas saves $34M against the cap in 2024 and $11M in 2025 with a net loss of $11M in 2026 as the dead money would get spread out over multiple years, not just one season. Take into account Dak's cap hit in those years and you have the referenced cap savings.

So while some want to say Dallas has zero options and that Dak holds all the cards, JJ just reshuffled the deck by trading for Lance.

Making Dak a june 1st cut would still leave the Cowboys tight against the cap till June 1st when the cap part of the savings take place.
They would gain 34mil in cap after June 1st.
2025 there would be a dead cap of 36mil as the two void years(2025/26) would accelerate into the 2025 offseason.

June 1st cuts split cap over two years.
The year the cut is made the team is only on the hook for that years prorated bonus + any guaranteed base + guaranteed bonuses
The next year they are on the hook for all the remaining prorated bonuses all in that offseason.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Trey is a longer time investment . Rush guaranteed contract is only about half of his 2 year deal so he could be released after this season without much cap hit.

Cowboys have 3 years ( including this year) to develop Trey. He’s a longer time investment for hopefully replacing Dak in about 3 years .

This is what I'm thinking also UNLESS Dak gets this team to NFCCG THIS SEASON. If that happens, all bets are off with Lance as our future QB. If not, I can honestly see them attempting to trade Dak after this season. Bring in a vet transitional QB and work with Lance as a future starter.