CFZ Trey Lance potentially a free agent in 2025 creates some interesting scenarios

[Hawkeye0202]

So while some want to say Dallas has zero options and that Dak holds all the cards, JJ just reshuffled the deck by trading for Lance.

We will see but it certainly seems as if Jerry is putting all cards for Dak on the table THIS YEAR, either show us you can do it or ..........

 

[Flamma]

I pretty much agree with most of what you said here Roy. But your scenario hinges on two things:

1. Will Trey Lance be ok being a backup with little PT for 2-3 years?
2. When his contract is up in two years, if Dak has an extension, can the Cowboys pay Lance enough to stay?

And I agree with you that Cooper Rush will not be in the long term equation.

The answer is no. No chance Dallas picks up his 5th year option as a backup QB. Zero chance. He's here for two years. He's here in case Dak gets injured.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I agree Dak needs to deliver. The question for me is what does “deliver” mean? An NFC championship game appearance? A SB win or appearance? I’m all for putting competitive pressure on Dak but using Trey Lance as the pressure seems strange. I’m not against it, I just don’t see how this works.

My guess the NFCGC appearance is the floor. Remember Stephen just said last week this is one of the deepest teams we have ever had. I think what fans are missing is Jones loved Dak to the moon as alone as he was a young developing player with a standard contract for a starting QB but now he's a vet in his prime. They ain't paying $50M without KNOWING hen will give them a legit shot at the Super Bowl. Like I said in another thread, perhaps if he can't do it with this team now, maybe he never will.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

The answer is no. No chance Dallas picks up his 5th year option as a backup QB. Zero chance. He's here for two years. He's here in case Dak gets injured.

Even though they have to decide by May 2024.

 

[DuncanIso]

When drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft by the niners, Trey Lance signed a 4 year, $34 million contract, including a $22 mil signing bonus, with $34 mil guaranteed, and an average annual salary of roughly $8.5 million.

According to Spotrac.com in 2023, Lance will earn a base salary of $940,000, while carrying a cap hit this year of $940K and a dead cap value of $6.25 million. He has two years remaining on that rookie deal he signed in ‘21.
Here‘s the link to the Spotrac info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/trey-lance-72382/

This creates an interesting scenario for the Cowboys. Lance’s rookie deal will end in 2024, making him a potential FA. We all know the Cowboys are negotiating a potential extension with Dak and current backup Cooper Rush just signed a two year $5 million contract with $2.75 mil guaranteed. I can’t see this team with all 3 for two straight years.

With the addition of Lance to the QB room, the Cowboys are now ranked in the top 5 in QB cap spending. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but I do believe that is probably not where they want to stay long term with the potential Cedee Lamb and Micah Parsons deals looming.

This sets up a very interesting two years for the Cowboys and their future. The 2023 season is already looking very entertaining!

Why pay Dak another 160-200 million when we have Lance?

 

[Jumbo075]

When drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft by the niners, Trey Lance signed a 4 year, $34 million contract, including a $22 mil signing bonus, with $34 mil guaranteed, and an average annual salary of roughly $8.5 million.

According to Spotrac.com in 2023, Lance will earn a base salary of $940,000, while carrying a cap hit this year of $940K and a dead cap value of $6.25 million. He has two years remaining on that rookie deal he signed in ‘21.
Here‘s the link to the Spotrac info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/trey-lance-72382/

This creates an interesting scenario for the Cowboys. Lance’s rookie deal will end in 2024, making him a potential FA. We all know the Cowboys are negotiating a potential extension with Dak and current backup Cooper Rush just signed a two year $5 million contract with $2.75 mil guaranteed. I can’t see this team with all 3 for two straight years.

With the addition of Lance to the QB room, the Cowboys are now ranked in the top 5 in QB cap spending. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but I do believe that is probably not where they want to stay long term with the potential Cedee Lamb and Micah Parsons deals looming.

This sets up a very interesting two years for the Cowboys and their future. The 2023 season is already looking very entertaining!

Diggs - $20M per season
Lamb - $30M per season
Parsons - $45M per season
Prescott - $60M per season

Pretty soon, that adds up to some real money. Good thing they are playing with Monopoly money.

 

[Stash]

Two thoughts:

1. The Cowboys do have a 5th year option with Lance, to keep Lance through 2025. The problem? Given Lance's high draft selection that 5th year option would come at a price tag of over $22 million--it's locked into the CBA!! That seems like no option at all. And if Lance is largely redshirted this season, he will only have one offseason and camp to suddenly take the big jump he needs. Short of some injuries I don't see how Trey is going to get the needed game reps to develop as a player.

2. Dak has vice grip leverage on the FO. Play him, sit him, trade him, cut him...Dallas will absolutely owe Dak $60 million next year no matter, unless that contract is extended and re-worked. Goodbye to Micah or Lamb (maybe both) if Dallas can't extend/reformulate Dak's contract. Those wishing for Dallas to cut ways with Dak seriously don't appreciate the consequences.

They have many other contracts they can rework and restructure if they have to.

And if they so choose, they could cut or trade Prescott after this season.

They still take that big hit, but it could be spread over two years.

Not great options, but options nonetheless.

 

[Bobhaze]

My guess the NFCGC appearance is the floor. Remember Stephen just said last week this is one of the deepest teams we have ever had. I think what fans are missing is Jones loved Dak to the moon as alone as he was a young developing player with a standard contract for a starting QB but now he's a vet in his prime. They ain't paying $50M without KNOWING hen will give them a legit shot at the Super Bowl. Like I said in another thread, perhaps if he can't do it with this team now, maybe he never will.

Don’t disagree with you Hawk. But Stephen has said “this is the deepest roster” for years. I can’t link it but in a local DMN article in 2017 he said the same. He said basically that in 2019 in a Sports Illustrated article:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/08/08/d...h-stephen-jones-jason-garrett-ezekiel-Elliott

I do think we have an excellent roster. But I don’t base that on what SJ says because he pretty much always says that.

 

[Bobhaze]

Why pay Dak another 160-200 million when we have Lance?

But do we know Lance is better than Dak? Not yet. He certainly has raw talent but he is not at all a sure thing.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Have you seen what that 5th year option would cost? (hint: a lot!). The 5th year option is derived via formula in the CBA. Because Lance was 3rd pick + a QB...the price tag is likely completely untenable.

5th year formula:
https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

Bob Sturm in his sub stack article calculated it would be north of $22 million!

This number does not get enough attention. I was guessing $20m in the other thread. $22m would be basically paying two QBs Dak's previous contract.

Lance is already going to be overpaid next year, and he really has no incentive to sign a Cooper Rush deal that keeps him around as a backup.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

This is what I'm thinking also UNLESS Dak gets this team to NFCCG THIS SEASON. If that happens, all bets are off with Lance as our future QB. If not, I can honestly see them attempting to trade Dak after this season. Bring in a vet transitional QB and work with Lance as a future starter.

You absolutely can't do this because of the cap hit.

Unless you want a total rebuild, you can't do anything with Dak but extend him.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Don’t disagree with you Hawk. But Stephen has said “this is the deepest roster” for years. I can’t link it but in a local DMN article in 2017 he said the same. He said basically that in 2019 in a Sports Illustrated article:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/08/08/d...h-stephen-jones-jason-garrett-ezekiel-Elliott

I do think we have an excellent roster. But I don’t base that on what SJ says because he pretty much always says that.

I agree but he hasn't faced paying his starting QB $50+M for just an annual trip to playoffs. That's the difference IMO.......think about it. This season Daks has;

• New OC and MM calling plays
• one of the best 3-headed WR units in the league
• Better running game than he's had in years
• Arguably top 1-3 defensive unit

As stated before, Jerry wanted this trade badly and I don't buy the developing a young talent card to trade later. Hell he could have done that without spending 4th round pick AND complicating his QB room.
You don't make these kinds of moves w/o a solid plan A,B or C.

BTW.......IMO this is now Parsons team anyway (lol).

 

[Hawkeye0202]

you can't do anything with Dak but extend him.

Can you extend AND trade????? In other words, a new contract is worked out by a trading team.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Can you extend AND trade????? In other words, a new contract is worked out by a trading team.

No. Any bonus money would have to be paid out by Dallas.

 

[CCBoy]

I pretty much agree with most of what you said here Roy. But your scenario hinges on two things:

1. Will Trey Lance be ok being a backup with little PT for 2-3 years?
2. When his contract is up in two years, if Dak has an extension, can the Cowboys pay Lance enough to stay?

And I agree with you that Cooper Rush will not be in the long term equation.

Right now, with Lance added, the Cowboys are saving. He has to get better before he becomes a future rent come due.

 

[CCBoy]

Two thoughts:

1. The Cowboys do have a 5th year option with Lance, to keep Lance through 2025. The problem? Given Lance's high draft selection that 5th year option would come at a price tag of over $22 million--it's locked into the CBA!! That seems like no option at all. And if Lance is largely redshirted this season, he will only have one offseason and camp to suddenly take the big jump he needs. Short of some injuries I don't see how Trey is going to get the needed game reps to develop as a player.

2. Dak has vice grip leverage on the FO. Play him, sit him, trade him, cut him...Dallas will absolutely owe Dak $60 million next year no matter, unless that contract is extended and re-worked. Goodbye to Micah or Lamb (maybe both) if Dallas can't extend/reformulate Dak's contract. Those wishing for Dallas to cut ways with Dak seriously don't appreciate the consequences.

Just as long as he stays playing healthy. I'm on for the ride...

 

[CCBoy]

Can you extend AND trade????? In other words, a new contract is worked out by a trading team.

Yes. A contract becomes legal at any point agreed upon. Contractual Law. There is no unjust enrichment then.

 

[CCBoy]

Yes. Low upfront cap hits with restructuring. Rinse and repeat with Diggs, Parsons etc...


IMO Dallas is in no rush to re-sign Dak. I think the preliminary talks about a deal were just that. Preliminary.
The time they need to extend or feel some pain is next year.
Also, IMO, with a full season with Lance, I think the coaching staff and F.O. will have a good idea where they stand with Lance and his future here. Odds are nothing comes of it, but if he clicks here then maybe that could start some interesting scenarios.
I think at worst Lance is the #2 next season if he shows any grasp of the playbook/confidence. Rush will probably be cut, unless Lance is terrible.



Making Dak a june 1st cut would still leave the Cowboys tight against the cap till June 1st when the cap part of the savings take place.
They would gain 34mil in cap after June 1st.
2025 there would be a dead cap of 36mil as the two void years(2025/26) would accelerate into the 2025 offseason.

June 1st cuts split cap over two years.
The year the cut is made the team is only on the hook for that years prorated bonus + any guaranteed base + guaranteed bonuses
The next year they are on the hook for all the remaining prorated bonuses all in that offseason.

Cap management is still out the window then. Those changes result in directional team changes a lot.

 

[CCBoy]

Lamb at close to $30m is the one that is Going to be a problem. Can we afford to pay a receiver that much?

They have to and also Parson's as well. Cost of doing business in the 'big city.'

 

[CCBoy]

Have you seen what that 5th year option would cost? (hint: a lot!). The 5th year option is derived via formula in the CBA. Because Lance was 3rd pick + a QB...the price tag is likely completely untenable.

5th year formula:
https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

Bob Sturm in his sub stack article calculated it would be north of $22 million!

It would be renegotiated or Lance would be traded.