Undisputed: The Dez Dak Paradox

[waving monkey]

Right... & one year removed in just his second season they want to throw him out with the bath water. It's silly man.

You know I did a little looking around another QB that had a slump his second season was
Matt Ryan, QB, 2008 and 2009
6 of 10
Rookie Year: 265 of 434 for 3,440 yds, 16 TDs vs. 11 INTs, 61.1 completion percentage

Sophomore Year: 263 of 451 for 2,916 yds, 22 TDs vs. 14 INTs, 58.3 completion percentage



With his first pass, Matt Ryan became the first rookie quarterback since 2000 to throw a touchdown his very first pass attempt. In October, he became the first Atlanta Falcon to win Rookie of the Month, the first Falcons rookie quarterback to throw for 3,000 in a season and only the 10th Falcons quarterback ever.
Ryan was the second-highest vote getter in Pro Bowl voting behind only Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans. He and fellow rookie quarterback Joe Flacco both led their teams into the playoffs.

His second season is the one most people point to when they talk about the mythical "sophomore slump". While his touchdowns went up, so did his his interceptions, while his touchdown totals went down. His yards per attempt went down as well from 7.9 to 6.5 yards.

Ryan's QBR also dropped from 74.09 to 56.57, and his QB Rating dropped from 87.7 to 80.9 between the two.

Clearly, "Matty Ice" has more than recovered, but his second season was a disappointing one—especially in comparison of the rookie year.

and his pretty good.

 

[Romo_To_Dez]

Sword cuts both ways; Dak’s erratic accuracy has impacted Dez’s production.

While we can fault Dak for his throws that are off target or inaccurate. I don't see how anyone can fault Dak or any other QB for throws where the ball it's the WR right in the hands and is dropped. That is on the WR. Hopkins made a difficult one handed catch and one of the best of the Season. When WRs are able to make difficult catches with one hand. It should be easy for NFL WRs to catch it with two.

 

[AdamJT13]

Do you have the stats anywhere, especially considering Zeke averaged over 5 YPC in first down. I’d like to see what qualifies as ‘down and distance’.

Elliott's high average on first-and-10 last year was because he had a lot of runs that picked up another first down, not set up second-and-short. He had 36 carries on first-and-10 that resulted in another first down, for an average of 16.7 yards per carry. On his 146 first-down carries that did NOT pick up a first down, he averaged 3.0 YPC. He had 68 carries that gained 2 yards or less (46.6 percent of those 146).

This year, on 100 first-down carries that did NOT pick up a first down, he has averaged 3.3 YPC. (Actually 3.27, and the team as a whole has averaged 3.29.) Only 28 of those carries gained 2 yards or less (28.0 percent).

So we've actually done a better job this year of setting up manageable downs-and-distances with our first-down runs -- we've been better at avoiding facing second-and-long after a run for 2 yards or less.

Anyway, that's one reason why Dak hasn't thrown as many passes on third-and-long this season.

 

[khiladi]

Elliott's high average on first-and-10 last year was because he had a lot of runs that picked up another first down, not set up second-and-short. He had 36 carries on first-and-10 that resulted in another first down, for an average of 16.7 yards per carry. On his 146 first-down carries that did NOT pick up a first down, he averaged 3.0 YPC. He had 68 carries that gained 2 yards or less (46.6 percent of those 146).

This year, on 100 first-down carries that did NOT pick up a first down, he has averaged 3.3 YPC. (Actually 3.27, and the team as a whole has averaged 3.29.) Only 28 of those carries gained 2 yards or less (28.0 percent).

So we've actually done a better job this year of setting up manageable downs-and-distances with our first-down runs -- we've been better at avoiding facing second-and-long after a run for 2 yards or less.

Anyway, that's one reason why Dak hasn't thrown as many passes on third-and-long this season.

1. So Zeke was getting a lot more first downs off of first downs this year.

2. What about the second down averages for Zeke between seasons? Second and long isn’t “third and long in particular”.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Here's the rest. It's good. A very beneficial 15 minutes for anyone that truly cares to understand what's going on with Dak and Dez....

Dak is not throwing to the same #88 that Tony enjoyed...

Link please?

 

[AdamJT13]

1. So Zeke was getting a lot more first downs off of first downs this year.

No, LAST year he was getting more first downs off first downs. This year, he was getting more first-down runs of 3 to 9 yards but fewer first-down runs of 10-plus and fewer first-down runs of 2 or less (or negative runs). His 5.0 YPC on first downs last year (compared with 4.4 this year) was aided by many more runs of 10-plus than he had this year.

2. What about the second down averages for Zeke between seasons? Second and long isn’t “third and long in particular”.

You were claiming that Elliott's lower average on first downs meant Dak had to throw on third-and-long more this season. I've already shown that that's not true, so I'm not sure what else you need. But Elliott averaged almost the same on second-and-8 or more this year as he did last year (4.53 to 4.62).

 

[khiladi]

No, LAST year he was getting more first downs off first downs. This year, he was getting more first-down runs of 3 to 9 yards but fewer first-down runs of 10-plus and fewer first-down runs of 2 or less (or negative runs). His 5.0 YPC on first downs last year (compared with 4.4 this year) was aided by many more runs of 10-plus than he had this year.

You were claiming that Elliott's lower average on first downs meant Dak had to throw on third-and-long more this season. I've already shown that that's not true, so I'm not sure what else you need. But Elliott averaged almost the same on second-and-8 or more this year as he did last year (4.53 to 4.62).

1. My mistake, I meant to say last year.

2.

What I stated was the following:

now they took away the middle short and Dak doesn’t have Zeke netting over five yards a carry on first down against stacked boxes and he can’t deal with the down and distance and third and long in particular..

My main point was that defenses have taken away the middle, short of the field (passing and dropping a defender back to take into account Beasley’s short routes) and Dak can’t deal with the down and distances.

One of the points I stated to in this regard was that Zeke isn’t netting five yards a carry to establish the above point that it led to Dak not having to face as many down and distance. While you simply proved that those 5 YPC were primarily driven by 10 yards rushing or more by Zeke regularly, none of that changes the point regarding Dak not being able to deal with the down and distance.

And in fact you simply established the big run threat that Zeke was on known run downs. If your gaining plus 10 yards a carry on known first downs, defenses pay way more attention to you. The point in this regard was Zeke affecting the down and distance and also the way he was running, he was making it easier for Dak last year.

He also made it easier for Dak this year, but Dak is being what his pre-draft scouting reports said..

 

[xwalker]

So Dak’s inaccuracy caused Dez to be the league leader or among the league leaders in dropped passes..........ok. I just keep replaying the drops vs. SD and NYG on deep jump balls that he had in both hands and dropped before any defensive player made a play on the ball. But, that’s Dak’s fault, right?

The Dez Boiz are not logical.

 

[xwalker]

Do you have the stats anywhere, especially considering Zeke averaged over 5 YPC in first down. I’d like to see what qualifies as ‘down and distance’.

And even if that’s the case, I’m pretty sure it’s because Cole Beasley underneath routes were netting the necessary ‘down and distance’ on RAC.. Dallas being successful on third last year isn’t necessarily in dispute. It’s still a short passing game.

Beasley's highest catch rate in his 6 year career was last season with Dak as the QB.

 

[khiladi]

Beasley's highest catch rate in his 6 year career was last season with Dak as the QB.

And it’s absoluteky awful this year, because defenses adjusted and Dak can’t adjust. Worse than 2015 when Weeden and Cassell, as well as Moore were throwing to him..

It’s pretty much his worst season as far as catches per targets...

None of this is surprised considering the ducks Dak throws and his inability to adjust to what defenses are doing and the fact he can’t turn throw deep..

 

[Bleu Star]

And it’s absoluteky awful this year, because defenses adjusted and Linehan can’t adjust.

There.. . FIFY bro.

 

[khiladi]

There.. . FIFY bro.

Blame Dez, Linehan and everybody else... not Dak..

 

[Verdict]

Uhmmm.. Garrett/Linehan special. It's the gift that keeps on giving.

Like the Jelly Of The Month Club.

 

[Verdict]

The Dez Boiz are not logical.

No, they aren't.

 

[AdamJT13]

My main point was that defenses have taken away the middle, short of the field (passing and dropping a defender back to take into account Beasley’s short routes) and Dak can’t deal with the down and distances.

Nice theory, but Beasley has more catches and more targets on third-and-long than he did last year. Beasley's lack of production this season is far more obvious in other situations, such as first-and-10 and third-and-short to medium.

One of the points I stated to in this regard was that Zeke isn’t netting five yards a carry to establish the above point that it led to Dak not having to face as many down and distance.

So you made an irrelevant point on purpose?

 

[xwalker]

And it’s absoluteky awful this year, because defenses adjusted and Dak can’t adjust. Worse than 2015 when Weeden and Cassell, as well as Moore were throwing to him..

It’s pretty much his worst season as far as catches per targets...

None of this is surprised considering the ducks Dak throws and his inability to adjust to what defenses are doing and the fact he can’t turn throw deep..

I've decided that you just enjoy being wrong.

 

[Bleu Star]

Blame Dez, Linehan and everybody else... not Dak..

You are correct sir.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Blame Dez, Linehan and everybody else... not Dak..

Its fairly common for good qb’s to not be able to score more than ten points 3 Games in a row man. Surely you remember all the times romo didn’t throw a touchdown for an entire month.

 

[khiladi]

Nice theory, but Beasley has more catches and more targets on third-and-long than he did last year. Beasley's lack of production this season is far more obvious in other situations, such as first-and-10 and third-and-short to medium.




So you made an irrelevant point on purpose?

So more targets leading to more catches on third and long automatically mean effective?

His target versus completion rate is amongst his worst ever as a starter. His percentage catching balls is garbage.

As far as my ‘irrelevant’ point, you clearly didn’t comprehend it, which was Dak is scrubbing for multiple reasons, among them that defenses are more focused on taking away Zeke and Bealet and Dak was struggling on down and distance.

It wasn’t necessarily that Zeke was netting 5 YPC on first down, though I used that to support my point. Congratulations though if it makes you feel better for showing that Zeke’s averages on first down were a result of being more of a threat to actually get big runs to turn a first down into a first down.

I guess that suddenly makes the point regarding the offense supposedly not struggling due to teams taking away the big play from Zeke and Dak can’t compensate because he sucks not true.. or that somehow your argument regarding Cole catching more passes on third, despite the fact his percentages are amongst his worst ever means that defenses haven’t taken him away and Dak can’t compensate and continued to throw turds or checkdowns and can deal with down and distances?

But that doesnt’t really surprise me your defending Dak in reality, just like you defended Ro Williams as a safety when he couldn’t turn his hips properly..

So what exactly is your ‘relevant’ point?