Vela - What Does 21 Mean for Pick 22?

[MichaelWinicki]

By Rafael Vela

A source told me this morning that the Cowboys have 21 players on their board with first round grades.

The team picks 22nd.

That’s no reason to panic. As I’ve said time and again, every team has a different board. What are the odds that the 21 players Dallas has rated as blue chippers will go exactly in slots 1 through 21? They have to be very high. If just one team ahead of Dallas takes a player the team has as a high second the Cowboys will have first round value waiting for them when they pick.

And if seven such players go that high, the Cowboys could find first round talent at both of their first round spots.

Any guesses on the identity of the Talented 21?

 

[Hostile]

We pick at 28 as well. I'd say that increases the chances we'd look to trade down at 28 if all 21 guys are gone.

 

[Cowboys22]

The problem is that there may only be 1 or 2 picks left at 22 and neither fit a need. What if its a QB and a OT? I really don't want either at 22. I think the chance of trading down at 28 is 60-70%. I have no doubt they would love to pick up more picks in the 2nd and 3rd round where all the value is in this draft.

 

[Woods]

The problem is that there may only be 1 or 2 picks left at 22 and neither fit a need. What if its a QB and a OT? I really don't want either at 22. I think the chance of trading down at 28 is 60-70%. I have no doubt they would love to pick up more picks in the 2nd and 3rd round where all the value is in this draft.

I wouldn't be too upset if we drafted a top guy at OT, esp if he could also play some Guard. It would give us a lot of flexibility with Colombo as well in 2009.

But I guess a lot depends on where the Cowboys want to play McQuisten (maybe challenge Kosier at OG?), Martin, and Free.

I just don't want any reaches. If we can't trade out of the pick, let's take the best talent, assuming that talent is head and shoulders above a "need" pick.

(If it's a QB at 22, I'm thinking we could probably trade out of the pick.)

 

[TheCount]

Seems to me like a case of trying to outsmart yourself. If we had pick 18, would we only have 17 players with first round grades? It's like they're just looking for an excuse to trade down, and I really would rather we just use our picks.

 

[Rampage]

Seems to me like a case of trying to outsmart yourself. If we had pick 18, would we only have 17 players with first round grades? It's like they're just looking for an excuse to trade down, and I really would rather we just use our picks.

 

[Redball Express]

.. out of both picks and move back to the last of the 1st rd. and early 2nd rds. with both the #1's and pickup additional picks in rds. 2 and 3.

I just think that if there are only about 21 1st. rd. talents there to be rated..that because we are looking at high profile players at RB, WR and CB..the chances are quite good that other teams are looking at those same top needs..

..and that our top 2 to 3 picks on our board for those picks in those 3 catagories will be gone when we get there.

There maybe some surprises as Vela says..somebody might drop to us at 22 and it will be a keeper. But I think we are all going to really debate those 2 choces when the picks are made if we stay at 22 and 28.

We have specific needs at three positions and that's not a good situation given where are drafting from. I think it tends to either be a reach and we get blasted for taking players at 22 and 28 that could have been had at the first of the 2nd rd. as appropriate value..

..or we get overly cute and trade out of those spots and drop back to the next round and then it's a crapshoot as to what is the real value of any player we take., but we get more picks to balance that out with.

Another words, we get blasted for blowing our #1's and not getting enough value no matter who we get and the Cowboys are under fire regardless what they do.

Drafting the Best Athlete Avaiable would be the ideal scenario for both these #1 choices, but unfortunately, they may not be CBs, RBs nor WRs as previously mentioned.

It's not going to be all that clear IMO.

As I survey those posibilities..I begin to see the possibility where we could end up packaging our 2nd rd and our 3 rd. picks along with our 2 #1's to move up into the middle of the 1st. Rd. in separate trades to go after at least whatever the most important 2 positions of need are..probably RB and CB..or WR if either of those catagories are thin when we get there.

Thus we are sure we get at least 2 positions of need out of the first rd. with quality players.

I haven't really heard of anybody mentioning this yet as a possible scenario. Most have suggested trading both our #1's to move up for a single pick to go after DMA. But I think there are other ways to move up that do not involve DMAC at all. In fact a trade up at #22 and a trade back from #28 is also doable along this same thought process.

Regardless, I think Dallas is going to have to be creative regardless what happens to make this draft meet expectations.

We just can't blow this one and there is sure to be some risk taking if you ask me to do it.

We'll see.

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS:starspin

 

[Hoofbite]

No way I see dallas trading back from both spots.

There just isn't enough free spots on the roster to accommodate 15 draft picks.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Our track record of trading out of the first round isn't one that gives me a lot of comfort about using that strategy again.

Just off the top of my head, names like Derrick Brooks and Steven Jackson come to mind as players that were on the board who we passed on just to move down in the draft.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I dunno...

I go back & forth on the "pick a running back in the first round" thing.

For a while I convice myself that it's the right thing to do due to Barber being a potentially unrestricted FA after next season and his lack of history of being a 300 carry back.

But then, I think, "Barber is a probowl back and we could have a lot of money tied up with him if we get him signed to a longterm contract-- why in the heck would we want to pay a 1st round draft pick big money too then? Especially one that won't get more than a few touches a game?"

It's a hard decision.

I'd almost vote for choosing Rice or the kid from Texas in round 2.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Our track record of trading out of the first round isn't one that gives me a lot of comfort about using that strategy again.

Just off the top of my head, names like Derrick Brooks and Steven Jackson come to mind as players that were on the board who we passed on just to move down in the draft.

Didn't we pass on Tatum Bell and the other Jones kid too?

 

[dogberry]

1. How many player have gotten a second round ranking from the Boys?

2. How many people have full access the the Cowboys' board?

3. What are the normal numbers for rounds on our board (is 21 high, low, standard for a first round)?

4. Do we have a preliminary board for next? (so we have an idea who we might get for a trade into 2009)

5. Are old boards ever released? (should I trust an old board-people have been known to lie(hard to believe))?

6. With all these questions am I really a four year old? (icon here)

thanks, Kent

 

[dbair1967]

Our track record of trading out of the first round isn't one that gives me a lot of comfort about using that strategy again.

Just off the top of my head, names like Derrick Brooks and Steven Jackson come to mind as players that were on the board who we passed on just to move down in the draft.

and Tony Brackens

David

 

[CrazyCowboy]

I am tired of trading our picks.......hopfully this year we step up to the plate.

 

[sonnyboy]

I dunno...

I go back & forth on the "pick a running back in the first round" thing.

For a while I convice myself that it's the right thing to do due to Barber being a potentially unrestricted FA after next season and his lack of history of being a 300 carry back.

But then, I think, "Barber is a probowl back and we could have a lot of money tied up with him if we get him signed to a longterm contract-- why in the heck would we want to pay a 1st round draft pick big money too then? Especially one that won't get more than a few touches a game?"

It's a hard decision.

I'd almost vote for choosing Rice or the kid from Texas in round 2.

You're really stressing there Mike. Don't worry too much, unless you're expecting a call from Jerry for your input.


Funny thing is the draft usually sorts this out for a team.

I have our needs as WR, CB, RB. With SS as a not too distant 4th need.

How the talent falls to us is a factor but not the factor. It still comes down to talent evaluation.
We could draft 8 guys 1 round sooner than anyone had them rated and end up with the best draft.

In my ideal senario they come away with a WR ,CB, RB and SS on day one.

 

[Primetime0201]

It means that they are saying that we won't be able to get a #1 worthy pick at 22 let alone 28 so it is worth it to trade up and grab a "WOW Player".

 

[ndanger]

It's like deja-vu all over again.

 

[ndanger]

It's like vu-daja all over again.

 

[dmq]

If we don't see good value, I would love to trade back and get some teams #1 next year. Especially a team like the Raiders who seem to be going for broke this offseason.

 

[big dog cowboy]

We pick at 28 as well. I'd say that increases the chances we'd look to trade down at 28 if all 21 guys are gone.

I agree. The list of 21 won't impact the 22 pick. The 28 however is an entirely different story. I see us trading down a few spots with that pick for two reasons. One, we don't want to use a first round pick on someone we think is a second round talent. Two, $$$$$$$$.