Watkins is on IR

[CATCH17]

Watkins may be done here. He may not be the only S we can say that about. I expect a mid round pick or two addressing safety in the off season.

Doubt it.

He is a solid backup and one of the better Special Teams players in the league.

 

[AbeBeta]

That's great that so many people know about Gambler's fallacy, but while they're at it they might want to look up Regression to the Mean.

That's assuming that what we had over the past two years was particularly surprising given what is normally experienced by teams. Also it assumes that every team uses the IR in the same manner, training practices are equivalent, and other factors like overall team age and drafting of guys to "red shirt" are constant. (i.e., that all teams are equal)

Regression to the mean is not a particularly meaningful construct here.

But I applaud the effort.

 

[AbeBeta]

Doubt it.

He is a solid backup and one of the better Special Teams players in the league.

You can't be a good ST player if every hit you make ends up putting you on the shelf.

 

[AMERICAS_FAN]

Doubt it.

He is a solid backup and one of the better Special Teams players in the league.

Is that why our coverage untis improved once he injured his way off of them? I think he's gone! Good Special teamers are a dime-a-dozen in the later rounds of the draft. We need to draft a safety who can show starting-ability by his third year.

 

[InmanRoshi]

That's assuming that what we had over the past two years was particularly surprising given what is normally experienced by teams. Also it assumes that every team uses the IR in the same manner, training practices are equivalent, and other factors like overall team age and drafting of guys to "red shirt" are constant. (i.e., that all teams are equal)

Regression to the mean is not a particularly meaningful construct here.

But I applaud the effort.

Uhm, I would say being by far the healthiest team in the NFL for five years running pretty much indicates an abnormal sampling. Expecting exceptional results to continue as if they were average would not be wise.

 

[Don Corleone]

That's great that so many people know about Gambler's fallacy, but while they're at it they might want to look up Regression to the Mean.

I know all about that, but I call all these injuries a pain in the rear.

 

[kmd24]

Expecting exceptional results to continue as if they were average would be pretty stupid.

Why?

If a coin comes up heads 90 times out of a hundred flips, what would you consider more likely for the result of the 101st flip:

a) heads,
b) tails,
c) heads and tails are equally likely

I'd say it's a), and I'd guess that there is something I hadn't considered that is affecting the results (in this case that the coin is likely to be biased).

 

[Verdict]

Why?

If a coin comes up heads 90 times out of a hundred flips, what would you consider more likely for the result of the 101st flip:

a) heads,
b) tails,
c) heads and tails are equally likely

I'd say it's a), and I'd guess that there is something I hadn't considered that is affecting the results (in this case that the coin is likely to be biased).

I'm not sure what this has to do with the Cowboys, but it makes sense to me!

 

[AbeBeta]

Uhm, I would say being by far the healthiest team in the NFL for five years running pretty much indicates an abnormal sampling. Expecting exceptional results to continue as if they were average would not be wise.

Can you actually prove that point that we were by far the healthiest team in the NFL for 5 years running?

You'd have to legitimately make that point first. And also, you'd have to show that the other factors I noted weren't at play.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Why?

If a coin comes up heads 90 times out of a hundred flips, what would you consider more likely for the result of the 101st flip:

a) heads,
b) tails,
c) heads and tails are equally likely

I'd say it's a), and I'd guess that there is something I hadn't considered that is affecting the results (in this case that the coin is likely to be biased).

this guy will probably take all your money in gambling

 

[Chocolate Lab]

******...

But somehow I think Mr. Battle will do just fine in his place.

I also wish Ball could stay active for his ST coverage, because Watkins was good on ST and we need all the help we can get there. But he'll probably be inactive because we need Pacman the Great's stellar 5-yard punt return average in there. (At least once Jenkins heals up.)

 

[AbeBeta]

Why?

If a coin comes up heads 90 times out of a hundred flips, what would you consider more likely for the result of the 101st flip:

a) heads,
b) tails,
c) heads and tails are equally likely

I'd say it's a), and I'd guess that there is something I hadn't considered that is affecting the results (in this case that the coin is likely to be biased).

If the coin was "true" - that is equally likely to come up heads or tails on any individual flip the answer is c.

If other processes are at play that cause the coin to more likely come up heads then the answer is a. This would relate to my point about training, taking chances on "red shirt" rookies, etc.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

103.3 Reports


Makes room for Pacman

Exactly.......man, Watkins needs to get healthy

 

[TheCount]

The problem isn't that there are so many people on IR, it's the names on there. All those names are big contributers, except maybe Hurd.

 

[jobberone]

Watkins may be done here. He may not be the only S we can say that about. I expect a mid round pick or two addressing safety in the off season.

I wish we could get a whiff of what is going to happen with the new contract. My guess is there is going to be some big time changes in salaries. And that gets to carrying safeties on this team. Esp RW, Watkins and Brown.

Are we keeping RW? Will Watkins return (I think so esp considering STs)? And Brown? Does he get another year? This draft seems to be pretty good safety wise. Do we look to get a 2nd or 3rd round safety if a good pick is there?

 

[TwoCentPlain]

Watkins is done as a Cowboy. Roy Williams may be done as a safety, and if he can't play LB, he may be done as a Cowboy. Unless he has a great camp, assuming he isn't traded before camp.

Henry should never play CB again. He should be a safety from here on out.

 

[InmanRoshi]

Why?

If a coin comes up heads 90 times out of a hundred flips, what would you consider more likely for the result of the 101st flip:

a) heads,
b) tails,
c) heads and tails are equally likely

I'd say it's a), and I'd guess that there is something I hadn't considered that is affecting the results (in this case that the coin is likely to be biased).

Because a 16 game season of of is not a one time event where there is no force that biases any particular outcome, like flipping a coin. A 16 game season is an accumulated series of events. The larger the accumulation of events and the larger the sample the less gambler's falacy becomes applicable and the more regression to the mean comes into play.

In other words, that's nice that you flipped the coin heads 90 times in a row, but it's highly atypical. Are you willing to put money down that you're going to be able to flip it heads again 90 times in a row?

 

[bbgun]

I'll miss his skinny, underachieving ***. Not.

 

[jobberone]

There are a lot of people here who don't seem to think a lot of Watkins. Until he got injured Watkins was one of the best ST players we had. He'll likely be back next year unless someone plays him out of a job. Battle??? I doubt it.

We need to worry about getting an impact player at safety. At least one impact player starting at that position. Maybe I'm wrong and we have the safeties this defense needs. Today's safety has to cover and we aren't strong there.

 

[Section446]

Ravens have 16 on IR I believe.

I know we have McBriar, Kosier, Jones, Hurd, Roy and Watkins on IR. After that I am a little fuzzy.

Are you serious?