We won, but playoff chances still hurt in "process"

[TWOK11]

NFC South will have 3 teams in the playoffs

Saints
Panthers
Falcons

we aren't going to the playoffs

Atlanta is probably going to finish 9-7

 

[Kevinicus]

I don't care about these 4% or 5% overall odds. I only care about the odds if the Cowboys win out. That essentially has to happen, so that's the starting point. Currently, it looks like we are at 69% chance of making the playoffs if we win out. Not as good as the 80% before the day started, but not bad.

 

[Kevinicus]

So we need (assuming Carolina or New Orleans takes one of the wild cards, they're both 9-4 and one will win division)

Cowboys win out
Atlanta to lose twice (at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, vs Carolina)
Green Bay lose once (at Carolina, vs Minnesota, at Detroit)
Detroit lose once (vs Chicago at Cinncinati, vs Green Bay)

All of these would have to happen or we're eliminated, other than Carolina losing out. That Atlanta win vs New Orleans hurt us a lot.

Carolina would need to lose 2, not 3.

We also need either the Rams to win 2 more, lose out, or the Seahawks to lose another.

 

[Blackspider214]

10 wins and missing the playoffs should motivate them next year

Clap clap clap clap

 

[Kevinicus]

Most likely path IMO:

Week 15:
Dal over Oak
LA over Sea
GB over Car
Chi over Det

Week 16:
Dal over Sea
Min over GB
NO over Atl

Week 17:
Dal over Phi

 

[sweetness0986]

So now we need to win out, ATL to lose 2 more, GB to lose 1 more, Carolina to keep winning. What about DET? Who would hold the tiebreaker if we are both 10-6?

And why do I have a sinking feeling GB is gonna get the 6 seed?

 

[Kevinicus]

So now we need to win out, ATL to lose 2 more, GB to lose 1 more, Carolina to keep winning. What about DET? Who would hold the tiebreaker if we are both 10-6?

And why do I have a sinking feeling GB is gonna get the 6 seed?

Detroit wins the tie-breaker at 10-6.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

What we NEED to happen at this point

Week 15
GB @ CAR: No matter what we win, a loss by GB helps more immediately, because it more or less finishes them, but a loss by CAR helps as well. However, if GB wins next week against Minnesota, we have almost no real shot at the playoffs.
LAR @ SEA: Must win for the Rams if we are to make the playoffs. 3 way tie breakers just aren't are friend, not to mention, if we win out, and SEA loses, they have 7 loses.

Week 16
SEA @ DAL: Obviously a win by us
ATL @ NO: Need the Saints to knock ATL down to loss #6
TB @ CAR: Kinda a win/win. If CAR somehow loss, it could create a win and we're in scenario for week 17, however, if CAR wins, they are alive for the division heading into week 17 against the Falcons.

Week 17
CAR @ ATL: Need Carolina here
GB @ DET: Detroit has a pretty soft schedule outside of this, and if Aaron Rodgers doesn't play, they could be the 10-6 to sneak in...

 

[TWOK11]

GB's win today probably helps us because we'll need Rodgers playing and beating Detroit week 17. GB isn't gonna beat both Carolina and Minnesota so not worried about them being 10-6 but Rodgers was gonna sit if they didn't win today.

 

[okstateCowboy]

I don't care about these 4% or 5% overall odds. I only care about the odds if the Cowboys win out. That essentially has to happen, so that's the starting point. Currently, it looks like we are at 69% chance of making the playoffs if we win out. Not as good as the 80% before the day started, but not bad.

Where can you find the % if we win out?

 

[Kevinicus]

Where can you find the % if we win out?

Search "NY Times NFL playoffs simulator."

Give the Cowboys wins (it will vary a little every time as it reruns the simulations every time you change something).

 

[LocimusPrime]

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Opportunities are running out for Atlanta AND Seattle to lose 2 games.

Looks like you’ll have to go back to cheering for Green Bay.

 

[LocimusPrime]

 

[ThatJerryKid]

I don't care about these 4% or 5% overall odds. I only care about the odds if the Cowboys win out. That essentially has to happen, so that's the starting point. Currently, it looks like we are at 69% chance of making the playoffs if we win out. Not as good as the 80% before the day started, but not bad.

How do you know we have a 69% chance if we win out? Where do you get that info at in the generator?

 

[Kevinicus]

How do you know we have a 69% chance if we win out? Where do you get that info at in the generator?

Not ESPNs crap generator. NYTs simulator.

 

[Alexander]

10 wins and missing the playoffs should motivate them next year

Not really.

They will just rationalize that it was because of not having Elliott and Lee for chunks of the season.

They won't acknowledge the real and evident issues with this football team. It will just be that darn bad luck again.

 

[TheSkaven]

So we need (assuming Carolina or New Orleans takes one of the wild cards, they're both 9-4 and one will win division)

Cowboys win out
Atlanta to lose twice (at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, vs Carolina)
Green Bay lose once (at Carolina, vs Minnesota, at Detroit)
Detroit lose once (vs Chicago at Cinncinati, vs Green Bay)

All of these would have to happen or we're eliminated, other than Carolina losing out. That Atlanta win vs New Orleans hurt us a lot.

That is the best scenario, but I don’t think Atlanta is going to lose twice.

Another scenario is that Detroit, Atlanta and Green Bay lose once, Seattle loses twice (one of those being against us) AND Carolina loses twice. We’d be second in a three-way tiebreaker between Atlanta and Carolina.

It’s not as complicated as it seems:

- Seattle is defeated by the Rams this week
- Green Bay defeats the Panthers this week
- The Vikings defeat the Packers next week
- The Falcons defeat the Panthers in week 17

The biggest problem in any scenario is finding the Lions loss. Would probably have to be week 17 against the Pack, I’d guess.

Things will be way clearer after next week’s games.

 

[ThatJerryKid]

Not ESPNs crap generator. NYTs simulator.

I get 63%.

 

[TheSkaven]

Most likely path IMO:

Week 15:
Dal over Oak
LA over Sea
GB over Car
Chi over Det

Week 16:
Dal over Sea
Min over GB
NO over Atl

Week 17:
Dal over Phi

This would do it. Atlanta plays Carolina so one of the two would have the two losses we need.