Well Folks, It Is December

[Bach]

It doesn't though. Nor did the Jerry and the choo choo train one. Or any of the others you have used. If they had I would have cited that rule and asked.

See the difference?

You brought it up so I removed it as a courtesy. I guess you just can't be pleased.

The problem is I am always honest and people hate that.

You mean like when you said I made a guarantee even though that was a flat out lie by you? Or when you said all you want to do is talk football even though you spend most of your time doing anything but?

Wow. All I can say is wow.

Why am I not surprised that you are missing the point? You skip the entire point to bold one line and comment on it.

Like I have been saying for a couple of years...motives.

I take it you missed my response to this above. What about an honest prediction do you not understand?

Aw, so you are saying it is not required at DCC anymore? Well, I guess things can change. I confess I am shocked. It shows good progress on their part that they will allow free thinking for a change. I would not have known this because I don't read there any more. I regret that I ever did.

Do yourself a favor, don't ever defend me there. I have a feeling the policy would change rather rapidly.

I've never been required to kiss anyone's *** on any site on the internet ever so I don't know what you think has changed.

 

[DallasEast]

Our average over the last 5 games for the last 13 years is actually 1.85 - 3.15, or 2-3 if you round it up.

You are correct that I was wrong. I had trended 12 years instead of 13 and then incorrectly stated that 3-2 was the correct trend over 13 years.

Averaging is not the same as trending. Earlier in the thread, you referred to looking at past trends involving the last five games of the season. I've utilized a trend formula for that reason. Borrowing the Excel formula:

TREND(known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const)

Known Y's = wins per seasons (or losses per season)
Known X's = Each season (my original calculation was 1997-2008)
New X's = The 2009 season (a.k.a. where the trend would mathematically lead to)
Const = Jerry Jones ( Sorry Bach. You know that you're fixated on him like Poligrip )

Conventional formula is y=mx+b. For strict linear trending purposes, we'll throw out the constant or "b".

Summary

Trending the final five games since 1996: 2-3 (You are correct)
Trending the final five games since 1997: 3-2 (I am correct)

.

 

[Hostile]

You brought it up so I removed it as a courtesy. I guess you just can't be pleased.

I am pleased, but I didn't ask you to. I brought it up to refute your claims. No other reason. It can stay. I don't care. As I already said, we understand people are frustrated.

You mean like when you said I made a guarantee even though that was a flat out lie by you? Or when you said all you want to do is talk football even though you spend most of your time doing anything but?

Wow. All I can say is wow.

You read half of the comment by me. I said it was either a guarantee or talking out of your rear end to piss off others. In other words, back to motive. I also said I gave you the benefit of the doubt and called it a guarantee. You volunteered the rest.

I take it you missed my response to this above. What about an honest prediction do you not understand?

Forgive me, I have no idea what response you are talking about.

I've never been required to kiss anyone's *** on any site on the internet ever so I don't know what you think has changed.

I guess the story has. People never got banned for disagreeing with sbk92? I remember one guy who got banned for dissing Taylor Hicks.

I know one guy who was banned there for dissing that site here.

I guess I just imagined all these things though. Forget the fact that dozens of people besides you have PMed me about that place.

 

[Bach]

You are correct that I was wrong. I had trended 12 years instead of 13 and then incorrectly stated that 3-2 was the correct trend over 13 years.

Averaging is not the same as trending. Earlier in the thread, you referred to looking at past trends involving the last five games of the season. I've utilized a trend formula for that reason. Borrowing the Excel formula:

TREND(known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const)

Known Y's = wins per seasons (or losses per season)
Known X's = Each season (my original calculation was 1997-2008)
New X's = The 2009 season (a.k.a. where the trend would mathematically lead to)
Const = Jerry Jones ( Sorry Bach. You know that you're fixated on him like Poligrip )

Conventional formula is y=mx+b. For strict linear trending purposes, we'll throw out the constant or "b".

Summary

Trending the final five games since 1996: 2-3 (You are correct)
Trending the final five games since 1997: 3-2 (I am correct)

.

Thanks for the explanation and sorry for the confusion. Maybe I used the wrong term but I'm just referring to our past history and current issues. I guess the trend I'm referring to is how we have been averaging 2 wins or less over the last 5 games of each season. I'm not trying to be all technical and overly analytical. Any of us can just look at our history and see for themselves. Throw that in with the tough opponents we have to end this year with and I stand by my 'prediction', fwiw.

 

[Bach]

I am pleased, but I didn't ask you to. I brought it up to refute your claims. No other reason. It can stay. I don't care. As I already said, we understand people are frustrated.

It's really no big deal to me either way. I'm actually tired of it myself.

You read half of the comment by me. I said it was either a guarantee or talking out of your rear end to piss off others. In other words, back to motive. I also said I gave you the benefit of the doubt and called it a guarantee. You volunteered the rest.

I considered it neither. I thought it was just a rather straightforward prediction as I've been saying. If you think there's some sinister motive behind other than what I've already stated in regards to our tough schedule and our recent history, then I can't do anything about that because it's simply not the case.

I guess the story has. People never got banned for disagreeing with sbk92? I remember one guy who got banned for dissing Taylor Hicks.

I know one guy who was banned there for dissing that site here.

I guess I just imagined all these things though. Forget the fact that dozens of people besides you have PMed me about that place.

They may have. I'm just saying I haven't had to kiss any *** at any site. Again, if you think otherwise in that regards, I can't do anything about it other than state what I said.

 

[Joe Realist]

Nobody's working today.

 

[DallasEast]

Thanks for the explanation and sorry for the confusion. Maybe I used the wrong term but I'm just referring to our past history and current issues. I guess the trend I'm referring to is how we have been averaging 2 wins or less over the last 5 games of each season. I'm not trying to be all technical and overly analytical. Any of us can just look at our history and see for themselves. Throw that in with the tough opponents we have to end this year with and I stand by my 'prediction', fwiw.

"Trend" and "averaging" in the same sentence.

Okay, Bach. Have it your way.

 

[Hostile]

It's really no big deal to me either way. I'm actually tired of it myself.

Just so we are clear the choice was yours and all I did was point how there is some leeway that you claimed doesn't exist.

I considered it neither. I thought it was just a rather straightforward prediction as I've been saying. If you think there's some sinister motive behind other than what I've already stated in regards to our tough schedule and our recent history, then I can't do anything about that because it's simply not the case.

That is fine if you do. I don't. As I said, I believe there is motive. I think you love pissing people off here. I have said this to you many times before. It is not new.

They may have. I'm just saying I haven't had to kiss any *** at any site. Again, if you think otherwise in that regards, I can't do anything about it other than state what I said.

You know they have. We have discussed it. More than once.

Wasn't there a revolt over there that had to be reconciled by a lot of banned posters being reinstated? They had all been banned for what?

I remember this quite well because several of them went to another small forum and I joined there to read the goings on. Two of them PMed that site's owner and asked him to ban me or they were going to leave. He PMed me an apology and asked if I would be offended because their traffic was really helping him. I told him I would not be offended. He ended up not banning me because I was cool about it and they left to run back and reconcile.

If things have changed it is because of that revolt I suppose. Like I said though, don't defend me or this forum. You'll get banned. Mark my words.

Yet when I confronted you about calling me gay there, how did I react? I laughed it off and said don't sweat it. Didn't I?

Yeah, those guys are right about me.

 

[Bach]

Just so we are clear the choice was yours and all I did was point how there is some leeway that you claimed doesn't exist.

Yep.

That is fine if you do. I don't. As I said, I believe there is motive. I think you love pissing people off here. I have said this to you many times before. It is not new.

We've finally gotten to the crux of the whole situation. You think there's some motive behind what I stated.

But, I can't be any clearer and I don't see what's so irrational about it. Tough schedule + trend of playing poorly late in the year = 2-3 prediction. It's that simple.

You know they have. We have discussed it. More than once.

Wasn't there a revolt over there that had to be reconciled by a lot of banned posters being reinstated? They had all been banned for what?

I remember this quite well because several of them went to another small forum and I joined there to read the goings on. Two of them PMed that site's owner and asked him to ban me or they were going to leave. He PMed me an apology and asked if I would be offended because their traffic was really helping him. I told him I would not be offended. He ended up not banning me because I was cool about it and they left to run back and reconcile.

If things have changed it is because of that revolt I suppose. Liek I said though, don't defend me or this forum. You'll get banned. Mark my words.

Yet when I confronted you about calling me gay there, how did I react? I laughed it off and said don't sweat it. Didn't I?

Yeah, those guys are right about me.

I don't think either side was totally right or totally wrong. And how many years has it been now? And really, it's just way too much drama for me to even care about now.

 

[Bach]

"Trend" and "averaging" in the same sentence.

Okay, Bach. Have it your way.

Sorry DE, but I'm not a mathematician. I didn't know this would be so complicated. But isn't it possible to have a trend over a period of years where we average 2 or less wins over the last 5 games per year?

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Sorry DE, but I'm not a mathematician. I didn't know this would be so complicated. But isn't it possible to have a trend over a period of years where we average 2 or less wins over the last 5 games per year?

In my opinion, the current trend is simply this: The Cowboys have not posted a winning record in the month of December for 12 years. That most certainly constitutes a trend.

However, rather than trying to predict the exact number of wins the Cowboys should accrue in December based on averages, it's a far more engaging use of time to try to determine why the Cowboys have struggled in December. (And I'm talking about you, DE!

 

[casmith07]

You are correct that I was wrong. I had trended 12 years instead of 13 and then incorrectly stated that 3-2 was the correct trend over 13 years.

Averaging is not the same as trending. Earlier in the thread, you referred to looking at past trends involving the last five games of the season. I've utilized a trend formula for that reason. Borrowing the Excel formula:

TREND(known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const)

Known Y's = wins per seasons (or losses per season)
Known X's = Each season (my original calculation was 1997-2008)
New X's = The 2009 season (a.k.a. where the trend would mathematically lead to)
Const = Jerry Jones ( Sorry Bach. You know that you're fixated on him like Poligrip )

Conventional formula is y=mx+b. For strict linear trending purposes, we'll throw out the constant or "b".

Summary

Trending the final five games since 1996: 2-3 (You are correct)
Trending the final five games since 1997: 3-2 (I am correct)

.

Sample size should be the whole franchise history.

And linear trending is a little archaic. Get some exponential stuff in there and you'll be building toward it

Or we could just create a Monte Carlo simulation. Anyone wanna build one with me (assign weights to variables, etc)?

Source: my degree is in Systems Engineering (stochastic and deterministic modeling, statistics, queueing theory, etc etc )

 

[DallasEast]

Sorry DE, but I'm not a mathematician. I didn't know this would be so complicated. But isn't it possible to have a trend over a period of years where we average 2 or less wins over the last 5 games per year?

It should not be complicated in the least. If you want to average, that's 100% fine as far as I'm concerned. The need to equate trending with averaging isn't necessary at all. Let me put your words into visual context:

http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/TrendVsAverage.png

On the left, you have a TREND line with a PROJECTION based upon a 12-YEAR TREND for 3 wins in 2009.

On the right, you have an AVERAGE of 2 WINS PER YEAR over 12 years.

In other words, a TREND Involving 2 WINS PER YEAR would be a STRAIGHT LINE. That would be 100% correct if not for the fact that the team did not win 2 GAMES PER SEASON.

That's it. That's as simple as it can get. I'm done.

In my opinion, the current trend is simply this: The Cowboys have not posted a winning record in the month of December for 12 years. That most certainly constitutes trend.

However, rather than trying to predict the exact number of wins the Cowboys should accrue in December based on averages, it's a far more engaging use of time to try to determine why the Cowboys have struggled in December. (And I'm talking about you, DE!

Well I'm blaming Jerry Jones for all of the December struggles.

If you don't believe me, just ask Bach. :laugh1:

 

[Hostile]

Yep.

Good.

We've finally gotten to the crux of the whole situation. You think there's some motive behind what I stated.

But, I can't be any clearer and I don't see what's so irrational about it. Tough schedule + trend of playing poorly late in the year = 2-3 prediction. It's that simple.

I still think you are motivated to try and piss people off. That is why I even care. I get tired of that mentality. Do you really think a 2-3 prediction bothers me?

Come on. That bothers me, but you calling me gay on another forum is no big deal? You told DE you're not a mathematician but is this hard to add up?

I don't think either side was totally right or totally wrong. And how many years has it been now? And really, it's just way too much drama for me to even care about now.

Five and a half years. I never said one side was all right and the other all wrong. Their depictions of me and this forum are fiction. Always have been. Defending them here isn't risky. All you will get from me is heated disagreement and some occasional buckshot. Defend me there and...........

We both know the rest of the story even if you won't admit it publicly. I understand saving face. They probably are reading this and heatedly denying everything and making all kinds of brave comments from afar.

 

[DallasEast]

Sample size should be the whole franchise history.

And linear trending is a little archaic. Get some exponential stuff in there and you'll be building toward it

Or we could just create a Monte Carlo simulation. Anyone wanna build one with me (assign weights to variables, etc)?

Source: my degree is in Systems Engineering (stochastic and deterministic modeling, statistics, queueing theory, etc etc )

Knock yourself out casmith07, but please do not say you're averaging wins per season as a trend.

 

[GOLDENCHILD1688]

before the season i had us going 11-5 and winning the division

i thought we could go at least 3-2 this december to make it to 11 wins

of course im upset about yesterday like all of you, and yes that doubt about us in december is again creeping into my mind

but i still think this team is talented enough to finish well enough to make the playoffs.

im not giving up hope 1 gm into the month.

 

[Bach]

Good.

I still think you are motivated to try and piss people off. That is why I even care. I get tired of that mentality. Do you really think a 2-3 prediction bothers me?

Why would a rational prediction piss people off? That makes absolutely zero sense. IF I was motivated as you seem to think, then why wouldn't I just claim 1-4 or 0-5? The reason is because I actually believe what I posted, 3-2, but leaning towards 2-3.

The WHOLE problem is that YOU think I'm motivated by something other than our schedule and recent history. Guess what? You're wrong. But I can't do anything about it, that's your own personal problem.

Five and a half years. I never said one side was all right and the other all wrong. Their depictions of me and this forum are fiction. Always have been. Defending them here isn't risky. All you will get from me is heated disagreement and some occasional buckshot. Defend me there and...........

We both know the rest of the story even if you won't admit it publicly. I understand saving face. They probably are reading this and heatedly denying everything and making all kinds of brave comments from afar.

Again, this drama among you and others is really gotten rather boring as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Hostile]

Again, this drama among you and others is really gotten rather boring as far as I'm concerned.

Yet you are the one who brought it up. Why? Because you figured it would piss me off.

Fail.

:wink2:

 

[Bach]

Yet you are the one who brought it up. Why? Because you figured it would piss me off.

Fail.

:wink2:

Kind of like you bring it up just about everytime we get in a "debate"


Anyways, I see you skipped over the other part, so I guess it's safe to assume that you agree any perceived "motive" in regards to this issue at hand has been totally fabricated in your mind.

 

[Hostile]

Kind of like you bring it up just about everytime we get in a "debate"


Anyways, I see you skipped over the other part, so I guess it's safe to assume that you agree any perceived "motive" in regards to this issue at hand has been totally fabricated in your mind.

Sure, I will agree to that. And just like you said with regards to the "trends" and the Cowboys proving you wrong, until you prove me wrong, I am going to believe what I see.

I told you that you got played. You think I didn't see this coming? It isn't my first rodeo.