What annoys me most . . .

[Juke99]

Oh...sorry....I thought this was a thread about Winicki.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Vinnt Testaverde threw more interceptions than td's
Bledsoe threw more TD's than Interceptions

Bledsoe won more games

So this would be a post to remind everyone of what has already been clearly posted?

 

[JackMagist]

So this would be a post to remind everyone of what has already been clearly posted?

I think it was an attempt to cut through all of the rationalizations and bandying about of stats to support those rationalizations.

 

[playit12]

Vinnt Testaverde threw more interceptions than td's
Bledsoe threw more TD's than Interceptions

Bledsoe won more games

Remind me not to hire you as my statistician. I don't think anyone is disagreeing that if your QB throws more TDs than Picsk you'll do better, but the point is why are they throwing that ratio? I mean two years ago Drew had almost twice as many TOs as TDs. Which Drew are we going to get this year? If you can figure out the why then you have some hope of not reproducing the problem. I really don't think Drew is really that much better than Vinny, and everything from DPAR, QB raitings, and Joyner's Route comparisons seem to agree with that.

Last year Drew had everything we are hoping to give him this year in a really good defense, good healthy recievers, and two good running backs, but still managed not to make the playoffs.

Really I'm not trying to sound too negative on Drew, but I think it's a bit of homerism to expect this drastic improvement over what Vinny could have done in the same circumstance, when there really doesn't seem to be any reason to expect it.

 

[playit12]

I think it was an attempt to cut through all of the rationalizations and bandying about of stats to support those rationalizations.

Assuming that is more of a dig than a compliment I think my remarks were mostly just about trying to figure why the stats don't seem to support all the hype we are hearing.

I keep hearing about Drew's strong arm and great accuracy... but why then did he throw so many short routes last year? And why was his accuracy over the season one of the worst in the league amongst starters? Why were his Y/A so low if he was hitting guys in stride and have success with deep passes?

 

[joseephuss]

I guess I could have been more clear but I tried to address both of those points. First the live arm comment by the fact that Vinny threw much more often and with much greater distance all year than Bledsoe. It's hard to comment on the quality of these throws with any kind of stats other than to say that he was much more accurate on the season than Bledsoe was.

Personally I don't think you ever want a QB throwing 40 times a game, because the defense figures out your passing game by the 4th quarter. I think Bill figured that out over the off season and Drew won't be facing that situation.

Second for the TD to Int, I think a large part of that as I alluded to can be put on the recievers. When a reciever, as Morgan did last year, doesn't run out his route it looks like Vinney threw to the DB instead of his man. In fact it might have been a perfect pass in stride for the reciever, if the reciever was where he was supposed to be. I think this happend later as well with the rookies running the wrong routes or not reading the seams well. QB's throw the ball before the reciever is open, so that the ball gets to them as they get open. Waiting till the guy's open, backyard football style, would just give the defense time to read the play and get back into coverage. I was very frustrated last year for the last 4 or 5 games at the really poor decisions our WRs made.

Also Vinny was trying to carry the offense and force plays to account for the bad defense. Drew had the luxury of throwing the ball away and letting the D get it back for him. For Vinny each turnover by downs was probably some points, so why not risk the turnover and give your team a chance to win?

As to Drew not doing any better in the same situation... I think there is some evidence (the 2003 season) to support that statement.

I think you put too much blame on the receivers. Two games where Dallas won(Cleveland and Detroit) Vinny threw 6 total interceptions. They had the running game going in both games and the defense was playing well. Were all 6 intereceptions the receivers fault?

Sure, receivers often play a part in any QBs interception totals. That works for every QB. How many of Bledsoe's interceptions were the fault of his receivers? He probably had the same percentage of Vinny.

Vinny has a long career history of throwing the ball to the wrong team. If you don't count the time he was stuck with the lowly Bucs, he has a interception percentage of 3.4% (it is 4% for his entire career). That is not as good as Bledsoe's career percentage of 3%. By the way, that is the same as Aikman's.

I believe Vinny is second in career interceptions to George Blanda. And Blanda played in an era where the defense had lots of advantages. Rules changes over the years have made it easier for QBs to complete passes and yet Vinny still was able to find the other team.

I don't see Bledsoe as a huge upgrade to Vinny. It is only a slight upgrade, but it is an improvement. I also didn't see Vinny as an upgrade to Carter. Dallas has struggled at QB for years now. Hopefully, the other parts of the team can carry them through.

I also agree that Vinny's arm was not very live last year especially in the second half of the season. His arm was pretty average.

 

[Alexander]

Amazing that the things that are used to attack Testeverde are used to defend Bledsoe.

Where are the excuses for Vinny having one decent receiver (Johnson) after Glenn went down? How about the no running game? How about the offensive line that will have an entire new right side this season? Where is the credit for Testeverde being one of the league leaders in passing before Glenn got hurt?

Bledsoe had a running game and a corp of very good receivers in Buffalo and was pretty ordinary. So ordinary the coaches there decided to basically take the ball away from him so they could start winning with defense, special teams and the running game. Just like Coach Parcells had to do in 2003. That is what smart coaches fall back to once they realize they do not have a QB behind center who is capable of making plays at any time.

Simple as it is, this is a case of fans defending your own. And it frightens some to realize that maybe, just maybe, we did not sign up a saviour.

 

[Doomsday101]

Amazing that the things that are used to attack Testeverde are used to defend Bledsoe.

Where are the excuses for Vinny having one decent receiver (Johnson) after Glenn went down? How about the no running game? How about the offensive line that will have an entire new right side this season? Where is the credit for Testeverde being one of the league leaders in passing before Glenn got hurt?

Bledsoe had a running game and a corp of very good receivers in Buffalo and was pretty ordinary. So ordinary the coaches there decided to basically take the ball away from him so they could start winning with defense, special teams and the running game. Just like Coach Parcells had to do in 2003. That is what smart coaches fall back to once they realize they do not have a QB behind center who is capable of making plays at any time.

Simple as it is, this is a case of fans defending your own. And it frightens some to realize that maybe, just maybe, we did not sign up a saviour.

I guess we will find out how Bledsoe does with the weapons he will have in Dallas. I'm not going into this with rose colored glasses but I'm also not going by what Malarky and staff are doing in Buffalo either. Bledsoe should be judge by what he does with the Cowboys if he fails I'll have no problem saying so but I'm willing to give him the chance before coming down on him

 

[playit12]

I think you put too much blame on the receivers. Two games where Dallas won(Cleveland and Detroit) Vinny threw 6 total interceptions. They had the running game going in both games and the defense was playing well. Were all 6 intereceptions the receivers fault?

Sure, receivers often play a part in any QBs interception totals. That works for every QB. How many of Bledsoe's interceptions were the fault of his receivers? He probably had the same percentage of Vinny.

Vinny has a long career history of throwing the ball to the wrong team. If you don't count the time he was stuck with the lowly Bucs, he has a interception percentage of 3.4% (it is 4% for his entire career). That is not as good as Bledsoe's career percentage of 3%. By the way, that is the same as Aikman's.

I believe Vinny is second in career interceptions to George Blanda. And Blanda played in an era where the defense had lots of advantages. Rules changes over the years have made it easier for QBs to complete passes and yet Vinny still was able to find the other team.

I don't see Bledsoe as a huge upgrade to Vinny. It is only a slight upgrade, but it is an improvement. I also didn't see Vinny as an upgrade to Carter. Dallas has struggled at QB for years now. Hopefully, the other parts of the team can carry them through.

I also agree that Vinny's arm was not very live last year especially in the second half of the season. His arm was pretty average.

Yeah I do think Vinny throws more picks then Bledsoe. In my first post I said that they were very similar except that Vinny was more accurate (completed more passes) but that Drew made better decisions. I think that is really the main difference and I don't think it's substantial. But I do think that the numbers last year were inflated because of our inexperience at reciever and Vinny feeling forced to compensate for the woeful defense. Had Drew been forced to "win games" I think his pick totals would have been higher. Also with regards to reciever quality I think Moulds and Reed are both good experienced guys. Plus their rookie, Evans, was (I believe) a first round pick compared to our late round or unsigned guys.

I think Vinny had a better arm then people are giving him credit for, but that is of course difficult to prove either way. However either way I don't think Drew's arm is that much more "livelier". At least it's certainly not supported in the numbers.

 

[JackMagist]

I think my remarks were mostly just about trying to figure why the stats don't seem to support all the hype we are hearing.

Because stats DO NOT tell the whole story. As an old professor of mine (statistics course) once told our class "numbers don't lie but liars use numbers." His point was that statistics have to be interpreted and can be viewed to slant a debate in either direction. I don't believe much in stats in this type of discussion because there are too many variables and too many opportunities for subjective interpretations.

Watching Vinny play it was obvious that his INT's were because he simply did not have the arm to make the throws any longer. His arm grew weaker as the game went on. I'll even give you a supporting stat (since you seem to like those); he threw more picks in the 3rd quarter of games than in the first half and more picks in the 4th quarter of games than the 3rd.

Watching Bledsoe it is obvious that he still has a strong arm and can make all the throws. You could see that his throws were still strong and sharp at the end of games last year. You can see the speed and trajectory of the ball if you watch and that is what I go by...what I see.

 

[joseephuss]

Simple as it is, this is a case of fans defending your own. And it frightens some to realize that maybe, just maybe, we did not sign up a saviour.

I think it is obvious that Bledsoe is not the saviour. The saviour may not be on the team right now. Many are hoping, me included that Henson(or even Romo) is the saviour, but he may not be. Vinny wasn't last year nor Carter the year before.

I just don't see how people can defend Testaverde. Twenty interceptions is twenty interceptions. That is bad. You have to consider all the other pieces of the team, but a good QB wouldn't have thrown 20 interceptions in the same situation.

Carter threw 21 the previous season and had the same line minus Al Johnson, only one good receiver because Galloway and Bryant both sucked according to most posters, Witten was only a rookie and was stuck with Hambrick. He did not have the stats of a good QB in 2003 and neither did Vinny in 2004.

We have to hope Bledsoe does better in 2005, but recent history indicates that we shouldn't expect much better. Bledsoe is what he is at this point of his career.

Instead of expecting good stats and play at QB for Dallas, we should hope for not as bad stats and play. A "Bledsoe didn't do as bad as Vinny and that allowed the rest of the team to win the game" mentality. That is how Parcells has won in the past.

 

[joseephuss]

Because stats DO NOT tell the whole story. As an old professor of mine (statistics course) once told our class "numbers don't lie but liars use numbers." .

Figures can lie and liars can figure.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I think you put too much blame on the receivers. Two games where Dallas won(Cleveland and Detroit) Vinny threw 6 total interceptions. They had the running game going in both games and the defense was playing well. Were all 6 intereceptions the receivers fault?

Sure, receivers often play a part in any QBs interception totals. That works for every QB. How many of Bledsoe's interceptions were the fault of his receivers? He probably had the same percentage of Vinny.

Vinny has a long career history of throwing the ball to the wrong team. If you don't count the time he was stuck with the lowly Bucs, he has a interception percentage of 3.4% (it is 4% for his entire career). That is not as good as Bledsoe's career percentage of 3%. By the way, that is the same as Aikman's.

I believe Vinny is second in career interceptions to George Blanda. And Blanda played in an era where the defense had lots of advantages. Rules changes over the years have made it easier for QBs to complete passes and yet Vinny still was able to find the other team.

I don't see Bledsoe as a huge upgrade to Vinny. It is only a slight upgrade, but it is an improvement. I also didn't see Vinny as an upgrade to Carter. Dallas has struggled at QB for years now. Hopefully, the other parts of the team can carry them through.

I also agree that Vinny's arm was not very live last year especially in the second half of the season. His arm was pretty average.

Actually, in the Cleveland game, Vinnie was pretty much a one man show. Our running game was not very good that day. We rushed for something like 93 yards on 27 carries. Not a great average. Vinnie actually had a pretty good game except for the INTs (of course).


Against Detroit, we really didn't run the ball all that well either. We stayed with the running game but the actual rushing performance was not very good. 117 on 39 carries. Averaged something like 3 YPC. Again, the INTs hurt but Vinnie did play well in that game. Not a lot of yards but very accurate and he also threw 3 TDs to with his 3 INTs.

 

[playit12]

Because stats DO NOT tell the whole story. As an old professor of mine (statistics course) once told our class "numbers don't lie but liars use numbers." His point was that statistics have to be interpreted and can be viewed to slant a debate in either direction. I don't believe much in stats in this type of discussion because there are too many variables and too many opportunities for subjective interpretations.

Watching Vinny play it was obvious that his INT's were because he simply did not have the arm to make the throws any longer. His arm grew weaker as the game went on. I'll even give you a supporting stat (since you seem to like those); he threw more picks in the 3rd quarter of games than in the first half and more picks in the 4th quarter of games than the 3rd.

Watching Bledsoe it is obvious that he still has a strong arm and can make all the throws. You could see that his throws were still strong ans sharp at the end of games last year. You can see the speed and trajectory of the ball if you watch and that is what I go by...what I see.

Don't most QB's throw more picks as the game progresses? I mean as the defense reads the offense better and as you are getting more desperate and loosing?

I think stats can certainly be a good tool. Certainly BP seems to think they do as he's always rattling off lines like win percentage if your run 30 times or have a RB with over 100 yards. I bet he has at least one guy on staff that just pumps stats all the time.

Mostly I try to interpret the stats as fairly as I can. I try to throw in factors that I think might have changed them but aren't reflected. For example Bledsoe's poor pass protection or Vinny's lack of targets not named Witten. But many times that ends up being trying to fit the player into your mind's image instead of removing bias from your thought process.

By the way the boys over at Football Ousiders would be rather disapointed at your view of stats. They did pretty well at predicting outcomes last year using DVOA. Last I heard they even beat all of the "experts" who were judging by factors outside of stats. And last year was a tough year for predicting.

 

[Alexander]

I think it is obvious that Bledsoe is not the saviour.

There is a distinct lunatic fringe that believes we got the Bledsoe who was the top overall choice years ago. They are around.

I just don't see how people can defend Testaverde. Twenty interceptions is twenty interceptions. That is bad. You have to consider all the other pieces of the team, but a good QB wouldn't have thrown 20 interceptions in the same situation.

Carter would have thrown the same amount. I have no doubt in my mind. But nobody is defending Vinny concerning that. It just easier to bash him and promote Bledsoe because one is here and the other is not. And I don't think anyone would ever say that Bledsoe is not better. It is just the degree of difference that I think is debateable.

We have to hope Bledsoe does better in 2005, but recent history indicates that we shouldn't expect much better. Bledsoe is what he is at this point of his career.

Say that last part again. Because I don't think some get it.

He indeed is what he is. Which is a slight upgrade from Vinny.

 

[Alexander]

Actually, in the Cleveland game, Vinnie was pretty much a one man show. Our running game was not very good that day. We rushed for something like 93 yards on 27 carries. Not a great average. Vinnie actually had a pretty good game except for the INTs (of course).


Against Detroit, we really didn't run the ball all that well either. We stayed with the running game but the actual rushing performance was not very good. 117 on 39 carries. Averaged something like 3 YPC. Again, the INTs hurt but Vinnie did play well in that game. Not a lot of yards but very accurate and he also threw 3 TDs to with his 3 INTs.

You picked two of his worst games to use to help your argument. The Detroit and Clevaland games were two places where his miscues did put the game in jeopardy.

The Green Bay and Minnesota games were evidence of how he could play well, as was the second Giants game and the Pittsburgh game...with the exception of the gaffe at the end.

 

[JackMagist]

Don't most QB's throw more picks as the game progresses? I mean as the defense reads the offense better and as you are getting more desperate and loosing?

I think stats can certainly be a good tool. Certainly BP seems to think they do as he's always rattling off lines like win percentage if your run 30 times or have a RB with over 100 yards. I bet he has at least one guy on staff that just pumps stats all the time.

Mostly I try to interpret the stats as fairly as I can. I try to throw in factors that I think might have changed them but aren't reflected. For example Bledsoe's poor pass protection or Vinny's lack of targets not named Witten. But many times that ends up being trying to fit the player into your mind's image instead of removing bias from your thought process.

By the way the boys over at Football Ousiders would be rather disapointed at your view of stats. They did pretty well at predicting outcomes last year using DVOA. Last I heard they even beat all of the "experts" who were judging by factors outside of stats. And last year was a tough year for predicting.

At this point I'm going to simply agree to disagree since we are obviously not going to convince each other of our position. But I must say it has been an interesting discussion.

 

[Juke99]

The thing that strikes me about Bledsoe is, Parcells used that very unfortunate "bus driver" reference when he first arrived. The definition of that term is a guy who manages the game well, doesn't make the big mistake, and isn't asked to win the game by himself.

Since Parcells has arrived he's coached three of the worst busdrivers in the history of the game.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Don't most QB's throw more picks as the game progresses? I mean as the defense reads the offense better and as you are getting more desperate and loosing?

I think stats can certainly be a good tool. Certainly BP seems to think they do as he's always rattling off lines like win percentage if your run 30 times or have a RB with over 100 yards. I bet he has at least one guy on staff that just pumps stats all the time.

Mostly I try to interpret the stats as fairly as I can. I try to throw in factors that I think might have changed them but aren't reflected. For example Bledsoe's poor pass protection or Vinny's lack of targets not named Witten. But many times that ends up being trying to fit the player into your mind's image instead of removing bias from your thought process.

By the way the boys over at Football Ousiders would be rather disapointed at your view of stats. They did pretty well at predicting outcomes last year using DVOA. Last I heard they even beat all of the "experts" who were judging by factors outside of stats. And last year was a tough year for predicting.

I agree with much of what you say here 12 but I think Jack is correct about Vinnie and his propesity to throw picks late. Here is a post that I made back in week 12 of last season that kind of illustrates this point.

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14744&highlight=Vinnie+INTs

 

[31hammer]

To imply that Bledsoe is a slight upgrade is ridiculous. Vinny had nothning left last year and got by on heart alone. Bledsoe is still young and strong. He'll buy into this system and "drive the Bus" More then anything he is what we haven't had here since Aikman left. He's a leader.

A slight upgrade? Get a clue.

But some people were born to be pessimestic and will always be pessimestic