What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

How often do these guys really get a chance to play. Guys drafted early get more chances not because they are better but because their perception coming out of college was higher.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
In reality, Dak was a 4th-round QB with 6th-round skills, so I do think a 6th rounder can SOMEDAY start.
 
LACowboysFan1 said:
Milton is here for various reasons, none of which is "future SB winning QB".

Of course, I didn't talk to Jerry/Stephen about why he IS here, but I suspect "various reasons" include:

Cost. Couldn't/didn't want to pay Rush what he got in Baltimore. Cheap is an understatement.
Youth. 1 year NFL player. Young players typically don't get injured as often as older qbs. (See one Dak Prescott)
Legs. 4.5 forty at his Pro Day.
Arm strength. Per his NFL profile " Elite size and arm strength are both well beyond positional norms."

Biggest reason he's here is of course IF he somehow does very well Jerry can pound his chest and say "See, I knew better than all the other teams he'd be a great QB".

Take your pick...
Click to expand...
Well done.
 
He’s actually a 5th round pick That’s what it cost Dallas . So what are the chances a 5th rounder starts . Well Tony Romo made a career as an UDFA and Dak is a 4th rounder so Milton should be no surprise .
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
4.7% - meaning he will start a game - kinda like Trance did.
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
I always enjoy your posts and they usually have a pretty decent thought process behind them. This one is no exception. It’s a well thought out, well reasoned post.

I will however point out that you may be possibly painting this issue with slightly too broad of a brush. I’m not sure that people are o high on Milton that they expect him to unseat Dak because Milton is so good, but Milton has at least glimpses of belonging as a QB on an NFL roster and you may be underestimating just how negatively that Dak is viewed by this fanbase.

In my eyes Dak is a guy who is a stat padder against bad teams, and wins maybe one out of every for or five games against legitimate contenders. The problem is obviously the playoffs are full of contenders and Dak wilts far too often under pressure.

I have as negative of a view of the Cowboys as I have had of the Cowboys since our SB years except maybe the three consecutive 5 and 11 seasons.

I had mostly tuned out when we signed Dak for another term simply because I believe that it was a colossal mistake. Having said that, I have reviewed all of the moves we have made since the season was over and I must say, I am slightly intrigued by what we have done.

The Shotty hire didn’t immediately make me feel all warm and fuzzy, but I think we are seeing what might be viewed as the future sacrificial lamb by Jerry and Co morphing into something a bit more than that.

I think that you will see Shotty run the hell out of the football. His dad always had a legit running game. He’s old school with a bit more imagination. He may not be the coach that McCarthy was but he may have one advantage—-he may get the luxury of actually doing it his way, and I don’t believe that McCarthy ever had that.

I believe Jerry and Co don’t expect to win this year and plan on blaming Shotty when he doesn’t win. But that may be a blessing in disguise for Shotty in that Jerry and Co are playing this a bit more hands off than normal and that’s a good thing.

We are actually doing OK in free agency. The team just needs to stick to its board and add strength up the middle on both sides of the ball. The moves we have made are low risk, high reward moves. And we have mostly used pick swaps instead of just giving away picks. Love to see that.

Milton can run the ball. Dak can’t hit the broad side of a barn anymore in big games. So Milton may play close to Dak’s level even if he’s an overall inferior player.

My prediction is that Dak may finish out his contract but it will not be as a Cowboy.
 
charron said:
How often do these guys really get a chance to play. Guys drafted early get more chances not because they are better but because their perception coming out of college was higher.
Click to expand...
No, it's because they are better. That's why they are drafted earlier.

The cases where a better but lower drafted player doesn't get to play over a more highly drafted but worse player are very few.

Prolly happens here in Jerry world a lot more than in the real NFL world!!!!!
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
The stats aren’t good on first rounders, much less a 25 year old 6th rounder on his second team.
 
There must have been a reason he was a sixth rounder the Pats were willing to give up on . It cost the Cowboys next to nothing . It’s a churn the roster type move like getting Jones the ex Dolphin or Solomon Thomas the ex Jet DL these are end of the roster players let’s you get rid of players who were here last year types like Rush hopefully Waletzco on the OL and a rotational piece at DT type in the case of Thomas .

Guys like Miles Sanders Kevin Murray Sanborn the other LB these three better contribute meaningfully . If the Cowboys are playing Milton any length of time something has gone wrong .
 
RonWashington said:
He’s actually a 5th round pick That’s what it cost Dallas . So what are the chances a 5th rounder starts . Well Tony Romo made a career as an UDFA and Dak is a 4th rounder so Milton should be no surprise .
Click to expand...
He is actually an 11th rd pick (5th rd + 6th rd) - 7th Rd which = a 4th Rd pick
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Click to expand...
I mean this question is wild considering we had an undrafted guy start for 10 years
 
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