What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?

If the Cowboys draft a quarterback with legitimate starting potential every three years then there will always be one going into his 2nd season at the same time another is negotiating for his next contract.
 
Chance of landing a SB winning QB are low.

Let's not move goal posts from what standard our QB is held to in literally thousands and thousands of posts on this very board.

Keep it at SB winning QB. It's a crap shoot not worth giving another team 3 to 4 good round picks to move up to acquire.

The mentality on drafting QBs needs to change. Stand your ground and hold steady until your pick and select a guy at your spot.

Way too few SB winning QBs to make it make sense to give up 4 or 5 valuable picks to most likely whiff.

I'd be looking at good processors with weaker arms or smaller stature than throwing away picks to move way up
 
those great O linemen did little in the SB
Well yes 3 great and 2 awful does not really help. They also had one of their great Gs trying to play T because their Ts were so bad and that did not really work. It does not change the fact that their OLine is 2 of the top 5 Gs in football and the best C in football and 2 of the 10 worst starting Ts in football.
 
Well yes 3 great and 2 awful does not really help. They also had one of their great Gs trying to play T because their Ts were so bad and that did not really work. It does not change the fact that their OLine is 2 of the top 5 Gs in football and the best C in football and 2 of the 10 worst starting Ts in football.
and failed completely in the Super Bowl
no matter how hard you try to spin it
 
Many posters would like to start drafting QB's every other year or so. And we should do so. There should always be a healthy competition to keep the position fresh, just like all other positions. A team will probably find a decent backup in a later round, or even get lucky and find a starter. How likely is this scenario?

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

A rather sobering list. The Eagles obviously hit big with Hurts. Every other QB is a JAG, backup or out of the league. Hit rate for starter? 1 out of 18.

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Adding this up, that means since 2016, only three QB's out of 68 drafted after the first round became solid starters: Dak, Purdy, and Hurts. Two have been to a Super Bowl, and only one has won the big game. You might get lucky and find a UDFA (Romo). If you want to include 1999 for UDFA, add Warner.

Going back to 2000, Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Jalen Hurts are the only non-1st round QB's to win a Super Bowl. The 1st rounders that did win are Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford.

It's hard to find a QB in this league. If you're not signing a FA or trading for a QB, a team must draft and take their shot probably no less than once every two years.
Hope this adds to the discussion.
No. 2 and 3 are intriguing, though Gabriel has height issues.

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...acks-kyle-mccord-dillon-gabriel-kurtis-rourke
 
It's 1 in a million chance in finding a championship winning QB after RD1.

Knowing the Eagles did it TWICE, with a 3rd round pick and then a 2nd round pick, makes me want to vomit out of my bHole.

It's obvious the Pats are the AFC team of this century... and the Eagles are the NFC team of the century. Somebody wake me when this nightmare of a century is over
 
and failed completely in the Super Bowl
no matter how hard you try to spin it
Unlike you I do not need to spin it. The truth is my argument and spinning it is yours. They had 3 elite Oline players and 2 scrubs. Shocking the 2 scrubs got dominated in the Super Bowl because an Oline with 2 scrubs does not work.

All of this is moot though because they were still IN THE SUPER BOWL. That means that they were still the 2nd best team in the entire NFL with an offense that was 1 elite QB 3/5 of an elite OLine and the rest of the starters were scrubs. Those are the facts. You can try and spin those facts all day but they are what they are.
 
Many posters would like to start drafting QB's every other year or so. And we should do so. There should always be a healthy competition to keep the position fresh, just like all other positions. A team will probably find a decent backup in a later round, or even get lucky and find a starter. How likely is this scenario?

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

A rather sobering list. The Eagles obviously hit big with Hurts. Every other QB is a JAG, backup or out of the league. Hit rate for starter? 1 out of 18.

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Adding this up, that means since 2016, only three QB's out of 68 drafted after the first round became solid starters: Dak, Purdy, and Hurts. Two have been to a Super Bowl, and only one has won the big game. You might get lucky and find a UDFA (Romo). If you want to include 1999 for UDFA, add Warner.

Going back to 2000, Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Jalen Hurts are the only non-1st round QB's to win a Super Bowl. The 1st rounders that did win are Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford.

It's hard to find a QB in this league. If you're not signing a FA or trading for a QB, a team must draft and take their shot probably no less than once every two years.
Day 3 (2016): Dak Prescott

Better than all of them (other than possibly Hurts) Day 2 QBs you listed.
 
Not blaming Mahomes at all.......The Eagles' D exposed the lack of talent around him.
I also think Mahomes got an undiagnosed concussion in the first quarter when Jalen Carter tackled him from behind after Mahomes threw the ball on a scramble. Mahomes just looked off. I bet if that was not the Super Bowl he would have been blue tented and sat the rest of the game.
 
This is my opinion/take on this topic. If you have a QB1 and be still has playing years left then I like the idea of having a developmental guy. I like what Dallas has done with the Lance trade and the Milton trade. I don’t want to spend a 2022 1st rounder on a QB or a 2025 1st on a QB. I rather trade a 4th and a 5th for developmental guys if we have an entrenched starter. Like it or not, and I don’t like it, but Dak is entrenched as the starter for 25,26 and maybe 27. I like gambling away later picks, 4-7 rounds, on a QB as opposed to taking a 1st round QB. I want rounds 1-3 to help the 2025 team. Lance was a bust and I’m cool with that because we had an entrenched starter. If Milton is bust I’m cool with that because we have an entrenched starter. When we don’t have an entrenched starter then I’m wanting a 1st round pick to be used. JMHO
 
For the time being, at least, we may have to wait for Joe Milton's results for that answer. :huh:

If he manages to enjoy much success in the future, we can claim it only cost us a 5th rounder!
 
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The chances for us to find a quarterback is good we've done it before and Jerry is exploding with confidence that he can do it again trust me.
It's one of those things he hangs his hat on not having to use a first round pick for a quarterback.

Now you didn't say a Super bowl winning quarterback and Jerry doesn't care about that either just somebody that can get us to the playoffs and keep us hanging around the rim.

Most definitely we can do it and even if we can't Jerry will try and force it to happen just because he's done it before kind of like after Barry Switzer he continues to hire lousy coaches or one's past their prime that can't get us over the top.
These are signature things he does
 
It's 1 in a million chance in finding a championship winning QB after RD1.

Knowing the Eagles did it TWICE, with a 3rd round pick and then a 2nd round pick, makes me want to vomit out of my bHole.

It's obvious the Pats are the AFC team of this century... and the Eagles are the NFC team of the century. Somebody wake me when this nightmare of a century is over
Jerry says not to worry. Championships are coming.
 
I hate the super bowl criteria for evaluating a QB. Would have loved Dan Marino. You know how many QB's have won a SB in the past 25 years? Less than 25, I'll tell you that.

The number of QB's capable of winning a SB with a great team around them is far greater than the number of QB's who have won SB's. That's what a team is looking for and they are far more common.
 
Unlike you I do not need to spin it. The truth is my argument and spinning it is yours. They had 3 elite Oline players and 2 scrubs. Shocking the 2 scrubs got dominated in the Super Bowl because an Oline with 2 scrubs does not work.

All of this is moot though because they were still IN THE SUPER BOWL. That means that they were still the 2nd best team in the entire NFL with an offense that was 1 elite QB 3/5 of an elite OLine and the rest of the starters were scrubs. Those are the facts. You can try and spin those facts all day but they are what they are.
humiliated in the Super Bowl

your facts are nothing but an opinion that reality spits on

your great O line players did not get it done; trying to just blaim the tackles is garbage.

The Eagles got plenty of pressure up the middle and where was the chiefs running game?

all FIVE Of them crapped the bed and you are stuck with that reality
 
His great defense gave up 35, 22, and 40 points in those 3 Super Bowls.

Don't.
Don’t? Don’t tell the whole story? So you’re saying the chiefs don’t have a great defense? Really? Wow. My point is Mahomes is great but without that defense they don’t win several playoff games in their recent run of success. SB or otherwise.

In 2023, the chiefs defense that held the ravens and the NFL’s MVP to 10 points in the AFC championship game at Baltimore when Mahomes had a bad game? The D that held SF to 22 points in the SB including holding them to 10 in first half while Mahomes and the offense floundered?

The chiefs defense in 2024 was ranked 9th. It was responsible for keeping them in a ton of games all season as the chiefs offense struggled at times. 2023 was the second ranked defense in the league. In 2022 they were 11th.

If you’re just looking at SBs you’re missing a lot. The chiefs don’t make the SB as often without that great D. I love Pat Mahomes. He’s the best QB in the NFL. But even he says without the chiefs defense they wouldn’t have had the success they’ve had.
 
Don’t? Don’t tell the whole story? So you’re saying the chiefs don’t have a great defense? Really? Wow. My point is Mahomes is great but without that defense they don’t win several playoff games in their recent run of success. SB or otherwise.

In 2023, the chiefs defense that held the ravens and the NFL’s MVP to 10 points in the AFC championship game at Baltimore when Mahomes had a bad game? The D that held SF to 22 points in the SB including holding them to 10 in first half while Mahomes and the offense floundered?

The chiefs defense in 2024 was ranked 9th. It was responsible for keeping them in a ton of games all season as the chiefs offense struggled at times. 2023 was the second ranked defense in the league. In 2022 they were 11th.

If you’re just looking at SBs you’re missing a lot. The chiefs don’t make the SB as often without that great D. I love Pat Mahomes. He’s the best QB in the NFL. But even he says without the chiefs defense they wouldn’t have had the success they’ve had.
Okay.
 

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