What is Mike Jenkins' Trade Value?

[Tezz]

I have a hard time believing a trade will happen mid-season, because teams do not want to bring a player in without a training camp to learn the playbook and other nuances. A trade is either going to happen during training camp or its not happening at all.

Mike Jenkins contract is not good for trading if your seeking high quality picks, its quite evident when a player of Mike Wallace's caliber didn't even get a sniff as a restricted FA because teams aren't willing to give a premium pick + new money.

Im not sure why your discounting picks and its not a guarantee that whatever pick is being talked about would be used on a CB. The pick could be used on any position to improve the team. Teams want and place high value in low cost 4 year control players that they can develop.

 

[Hagman]

Based on this limited research, I'd estimate there's less than a 10% chance of finding a corner equivalent to Jenkins in the third and fourth rounds of the NFL draft. And I'd say there's a less than 5% chance of finding a better corner.

So, let me ask you. If you're the Colts or the Lions, and you're looking for a corner, what you would expect to receive more production from -- a third or fourth round pick? Or Mike Jenkins?

But......that assumes we use the pick on a corner. More likely we would use the pick for an interior lineman a tight end or some other position of need where you can pick up a pretty good player in those rounds. So what would benefit the Cowboys more, a disgruntled corner whose performance has been up or down and is likely gone after one more year,or a pretty darn good guard, center, or tight end who could contribute for the next dozen years?

 

[HoosierCowboy]

we don't have to trade him--we are now, for the first time in almost 20 years, what could be called "cornerback poor" -- we have four or more quality CBs and hopefully that means competition and not whining--anyway, sit pat and wait for a desperate offer

 

[Hoofbite]

I don't think the the aspect of "what you expect" is the only factor in play.

The Colts or any other team knows it's unlikely that Dallas meet his demands next year. Possibly less likely that he even wants to be in Dallas.

They aren't going to pay simply based on what everyone expects him to be able to do, they're paying based on the fact that they know Dallas is guaranteed nothing in return if Jenkins goes to another team next off season.

Obviously they aren't trying to pay based solely on what he possibly can contribute under a best case scenario.

His trade value can't be looked at from any specific point of view because there are multiple factors. Maybe the Colts are only interested because they think they can get a good deal and can get him for a 3rd rounder. Maybe they'd rather pay a little more money in free agency by bidding for him next year instead of trading a 2nd rounder and having to pay him a new contract right now.

Or maybe if they were willing to sacrifice that much in the first place, they'd rather just grab one of the top corners in next years draft and pay him half as much as what it will cost to sign Jenkins.

 

[Risen Star]

I don't think the the aspect of "what you expect" is the only factor in play.

The Colts or any other team knows it's unlikely that Dallas meet his demands next year. Possibly less likely that he even wants to be in Dallas.

They aren't going to pay simply based on what everyone expects him to be able to do, they're paying based on the fact that they know Dallas is guaranteed nothing in return if Jenkins goes to another team next off season.

That's only right if they are the only team interested. They'd be paying to outbid the other team.

 

[rafter]

Mike Jenkins hoping to be traded, will skip Cowboys OTAs

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000...-skip-cowboys-otas?module=HP11_headline_stack

this is what one guy said

Jenkins is smart enough to read the numbers. No way the 'Boys can afford to pay top dollar for FOUR CBs, so he feels he will be the odd man out either this season or next. He should also realize, however, that injuries happen, & that he can increase his market value immensely by having a Pro-Bowl season in 2012.

not sure where he is getting four CB's

 

[sjordan6]

great post! I agree with you that he has more value than the media want to give him. I dont think a team is going to give the cowboys what they want as far as draft picks but I do think the Cowboys will eventually trade him for a player thet think can help them this season and beyond.

Now what team and who is of course is all speculation. I wish we could trade him to the Patriots for Vince Wolfolk but now we are getting into wishful thinking and away from your sound and rational thoughts.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

The more threads on the first page that are about cornerbacks, the more traffic the forum will get.

I garontee.

 

[Hostile]

The more threads on the first page that are about cornerbacks, the more traffic the forum will get.

I garontee.

:laugh2:

 

[RealCowboyfan]

1st Round or a high value player like Dwight Freeney, Nick Fairley, Austin Collie, or Delmas.

 

[sonnyboy]

Excellent OP.

Just a few suggestions for those contemplating a possible trade of Jenkins.

Stop thinking of this as something we have to do in fear of losing him for nothing. The second you start doing that or put that at the forefront in the "valuation" process, you start thinking firesale cheap thoughts.

Having him play for us in 2012 is "something". So not trading him doesn't mean we get nothing.

So what is that something lost in 2012 worth to us???????


Now think of how much it sucks to have one average CB and another below average CB.

If you're running that team, how much is Jenkins at a 2012 cap number of 1mil worth to you?

Guess it comes down to what you think Jenkins is. Is he a top 16 CB or a top 32 CB? I believe somewhere from 8 to 24 is a conservative projection of Jenkins level of play for 2012 thru 2016.

Detroit should be thinking of themselves much the way we think of ourselves....a franchise QB contending team. They can be playing in this year's SB. A difference maker like Jenkins at what might be the weakest position on their team is just what they need.

OK you're running the Lions, what do you pay for Jenkins?

 

[T-RO]

Jenkins' contract is ideal for a trade really.

Isn't the player disgruntled w/his terms?

 

[28 Joker]

Mike Jenkins has been an extremely inconsistent player at a position that demands consistency. The Cowboys jumped all over Morris Claiborne for a reason after they replaced Newman with Brandon Carr, imso.

Here are the last three years of YPA for Mike Jenkins according to K.C. Joyner:

2009: 5.4

2010: 11.4

2011: 7.1 (12 games)

During the past three seasons, Jenkins has averaged a very poor 8.0 YPA. That number goes up to 9.25 YPA for 2010 and 2011. That is really, really bad. Consider that Newman was at 9.7 last year. Furthermore, Newman consistently rated among the very best corners in YPA (from 2004-2007). That doesn't include Newman's stellar 2003 rookie year, either. In fact, Newman rated number 2, from 2004-2007, according to a Rafael Vela analyis, via Joyner's stats. In 2008 and 2009, Newman was still a top-notch CB, when healthy, and he made the pro bowl in 2009.

While Jenkins was one of the very best CBs in 2009 and deserved his pro bowl status, he was one of the very worst CBs in the NFL during 2010. In 2010, Jenkins' ability to defend the deep pass and intercept the football dropped off the table. For all of the hype about Jenkins' ball skills, Jenkins has only averaged 2 INT per year, and he has three seasons with just 1.

I'm not sold on Jenkins having big time trade value unless a team just gets desperate and carelessly throws Dallas a high valued pick. I guess you could always try. We'll see.

Also, I'm not sold on this big "competition" between Claiborne and Jenkins. I think the 6th pick of the draft starts day one, and I think that choice has already been made. Newman was the 5th pick of the draft and won the Thorpe Award, just like Claiborne. Newman was a day one starter and had a great rookie year. Claiborne should be able to do the same thing.

I think Jenkins is a starting caliber CB, but I'm not sure just how good he really is, because he hasn't demonstrated consistency. In fact, Jenkins' play has been all over the place.

 

[Eskimo]

I don't know. I have a feeling though that if Jenkins recovers well from his injury and he shows he can continue to produce, Jerry will find a way to resign him and make him happy. I know we have a bunch of money tied up in the secondary but it is one of the few areas on the field where you need to spend big time to be effective. Especially if the offense can't stay on the field.

I disagree that is worth it to us to give him a big FA type contract when we already have Carr and Claiborne on the roster. The problem now becomes you can matchup with the other team's #1 and #2 well with Carr and Claiborne so all you need is a #3 CB who can matchup with a #3 WR. Alternatively, you can provide that player with some double team help and rotate coverage away from Carr and Claiborne.

Now you can then take the money you were going to spend on Jenkins and use it to sign a very good pass rusher at OLB or a top 3 interior OL. I would take either of those over a great #3 CB who will sit out a significant number of snaps.

So no matter what happens I don't expect Jenkins to be on our roster in 2013. It just doesn't make sense to spend that much on CBs when we have other areas in need of league average starters.

 

[sonnyboy]

Mike Jenkins has been an extremely inconsistent player at a position that demands consistency. The Cowboys jumped all over Morris Claiborne for a reason after they replaced Newman with Brandon Carr, imso.

Here are the last three years of YPA for Mike Jenkins according to K.C. Joyner:

2009: 5.4

2010: 11.4

2011: 7.1 (12 games)

During the past three seasons, Jenkins has averaged a very poor 8.0 YPA. That number goes up to 9.25 YPA for 2010 and 2011. That is really, really bad. Consider that Newman was at 9.7 last year. Furthermore, Newman consistently rated among the very best corners in YPA (from 2004-2007). That doesn't include Newman's stellar 2003 rookie year, either. In fact, Newman rated number 2, from 2004-2007, according to a Rafael Vela analyis, via Joyner's stats. In 2008 and 2009, Newman was still a top-notch CB, when healthy, and he made the pro bowl in 2009.

While Jenkins was one of the very best CBs in 2009 and deserved his pro bowl status, he was one of the very worst CBs in the NFL during 2010. In 2010, Jenkins' ability to defend the deep pass and intercept the football dropped off the table. For all of the hype about Jenkins' ball skills, Jenkins has only averaged 2 INT per year, and he has three seasons with just 1.

I'm not sold on Jenkins having big time trade value unless a team just gets desperate and carelessly throws Dallas a high valued pick. I guess you could always try. We'll see.

Also, I'm not sold on this big "competition" between Claiborne and Jenkins. I think the 6th pick of the draft starts day one, and I think that choice has already been made. Newman was the 5th pick of the draft and won the Thorpe Award, just like Claiborne. Newman was a day one starter and had a great rookie year. Claiborne should be able to do the same thing.

I think Jenkins is a starting caliber CB, but I'm not sure just how good he really is, because he hasn't demonstrated consistency. In fact, Jenkins' play has been all over the place.

Talent, potential and best demonstrated result.

You can spit ball the guy all you want and do it real well. But in the final analisys a team/GM is either going to like what they see or they won't.

They're not trading for the guy who played on a defense that fell apart or a the guy who was in and out of the lineup all season with injuries.

They're trading for the guy who was named to the 2009 pro-bowl.

 

[junk]

The whole Jenkins thing is kind of a no-win situation for Dallas in my opinion.

The guy is obviously unhappy and wants out.

He's a FA after the season and I don't really see any way Dallas brings him back. He isn't going to get much PT to showcase himself in his FA year, so he isn't going to get as big of a contract.

So, trade him......but what is he worth? He's an inconsistent/injury prone corner who has had 1 good season, but some pretty bad seasons to boot that is going into the final year of his contract. Teams aren't going to give up much for him, but the argument would be "Take what you can get"

Or keep him.....now you have a disgruntled former starter who is on his way out and knows he is on his way out. Can he be a professional and play out his contract? Maybe, but you know he isn't going to be as invested as he would in a normal situation. Maybe you get a comp pick for him, but he probably isn't going to start, so he probably doesn't get as big of a contract as he might if he started, so his comp pick is lousy. Or, more likely, someone signs him on a 1 year "show me" deal and Dallas gets nothing in the way of a comp pick.

A 3 or 4 would probably be pretty good value in terms of a draft pick or a young guy with some upside like Ijalana or Hughes.

 

[Mr_Bill]

Your analysis is excellent.

It is only relevant, however, if Jenkins is healthy. Is he? If not, when will he be? Can you guarantee that he will return to full health?

Just like a player's injury status can knock him down a round or two in the draft, or even turn him into a UDFA (Lee, Carter, Ron Leary), so too can a player's injury status affect his trade value.

 

[Hoofbite]

That's only right if they are the only team interested. They'd be paying to outbid the other team.

Maybe.

If they think they can have him cheap, maybe that's as far as their interest goes.

I'm still curious why any team would both trade a high draft pick and sign him to a long term deal when they could simply draft a CB in the first round next year and pay half as much.

Mike Jenkins gonna put the Colts over the top? Probably not.

 

[Risen Star]

Maybe.

If they think they can have him cheap, maybe that's as far as their interest goes.

I'm still curious why any team would both trade a high draft pick and sign him to a long term deal when they could simply draft a CB in the first round next year and pay half as much.

Mike Jenkins gonna put the Colts over the top? Probably not.

I agree that it doesn't make sense for the Colts. They are essentially an expansion team right now. Why they'd want to flirt with a FA to be veteran corner is beyond me.

 

[theogt]

Maybe.

If they think they can have him cheap, maybe that's as far as their interest goes.

I'm still curious why any team would both trade a high draft pick and sign him to a long term deal when they could simply draft a CB in the first round next year and pay half as much.

Mike Jenkins gonna put the Colts over the top? Probably not.

They could trade their second for Jenkins and still spend their first next year on a corner. They'd still be getting good value out of their second.