What is Mike Jenkins' Trade Value?

[theogt]

Mike Jenkins has been an extremely inconsistent player at a position that demands consistency. The Cowboys jumped all over Morris Claiborne for a reason after they replaced Newman with Brandon Carr, imso.

Here are the last three years of YPA for Mike Jenkins according to K.C. Joyner:

2009: 5.4

2010: 11.4

2011: 7.1 (12 games)

During the past three seasons, Jenkins has averaged a very poor 8.0 YPA. That number goes up to 9.25 YPA for 2010 and 2011. That is really, really bad. Consider that Newman was at 9.7 last year. Furthermore, Newman consistently rated among the very best corners in YPA (from 2004-2007). That doesn't include Newman's stellar 2003 rookie year, either. In fact, Newman rated number 2, from 2004-2007, according to a Rafael Vela analyis, via Joyner's stats. In 2008 and 2009, Newman was still a top-notch CB, when healthy, and he made the pro bowl in 2009.

While Jenkins was one of the very best CBs in 2009 and deserved his pro bowl status, he was one of the very worst CBs in the NFL during 2010. In 2010, Jenkins' ability to defend the deep pass and intercept the football dropped off the table. For all of the hype about Jenkins' ball skills, Jenkins has only averaged 2 INT per year, and he has three seasons with just 1.

I'm not sold on Jenkins having big time trade value unless a team just gets desperate and carelessly throws Dallas a high valued pick. I guess you could always try. We'll see.

Also, I'm not sold on this big "competition" between Claiborne and Jenkins. I think the 6th pick of the draft starts day one, and I think that choice has already been made. Newman was the 5th pick of the draft and won the Thorpe Award, just like Claiborne. Newman was a day one starter and had a great rookie year. Claiborne should be able to do the same thing.

I think Jenkins is a starting caliber CB, but I'm not sure just how good he really is, because he hasn't demonstrated consistency. In fact, Jenkins' play has been all over the place.

I think everyone can explain 2010. Then you're left with 2009 and 2011. Both were good years.

Your analysis is excellent.

It is only relevant, however, if Jenkins is healthy. Is he? If not, when will he be? Can you guarantee that he will return to full health?

Just like a player's injury status can knock him down a round or two in the draft, or even turn him into a UDFA (Lee, Carter, Ron Leary), so too can a player's injury status affect his trade value.

I don't see any reason he won't be healthy enough to play week 1.

Isn't the player disgruntled w/his terms?

No, not exactly. He's in a contract year so he's afraid he won't get enough playing time to warrant a huge contract. If he's relegated to third string thats a huge hit on the perception of his ability. So he wants a trade. He would almost certainly renegotiate a longterm contract wherever he went.

 

[theogt]

But......that assumes we use the pick on a corner. More likely we would use the pick for an interior lineman a tight end or some other position of need where you can pick up a pretty good player in those rounds. So what would benefit the Cowboys more, a disgruntled corner whose performance has been up or down and is likely gone after one more year,or a pretty darn good guard, center, or tight end who could contribute for the next dozen years?

It's actually to be looked at from the viewpoint of the trade partner. Would they be able to use the pick to pick up a corner? Not likely a comparable one, so the cost to them would be worth it.

 

[Bluestang]

I agree that it doesn't make sense for the Colts. They are essentially an expansion team right now. Why they'd want to flirt with a FA to be veteran corner is beyond me.

It's because you truly lack football knowledge. The more you post about what you think you know it becomes more evident that you don't.

Chuck Pagano is a defensive minded coach. He is trying to rebuild the team with skill position players. He's got a franchise QB, WR, TE on offense. On defense he has two quality DEs, and a good LB, and a good FS. Considering where Pagano just came from it makes absolute sense that he tries to upgrade the corner position with someone like Jenkins, a skill position player. The contract alone for one year is bargain for any team, and since he gets to start he can prove his worth to get his next contract while the team that pays him for pennies can possibly get a compensatory pick if they don't want resign him.

I agree with your thoughts about getting a dominant defensive line but that is half of the solution and always will be.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

I would absolutely do it for a third rd pick but I think jones and Garret are under pressure to win and show marked improvement this year,,, they both need it to legitimize their efforts so "all hands on deck" is probably what they are thinking.

 

[Doomsday101]

I would not be shocked if someone offered a 2nd, I think a 3rd is more likely because Jenkins is coming off surgery and that will normally make teams a bit leery. I would not let Jenkins go for less than a 3rd.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

We should look to get no worse than a mid-2nd round pick for Jenkins. And IMO, the only thing that should prevent him from being a 1st rounder is the shoulder injury. He's still young, he's played for 4 years with a great 2nd season and a very good 4th season. He's productive and has shown that if you have a coaching staff that will stay on him, like his college coaches said all along, he will perform. So he has legitimate Pro Bowl talent and with the rookie wage scale, draft picks are worth less. If we trade him for anything less, then I believe Jerry has truly lost his negotiating skills in this league. We have all of the leverage in Jenkins' situation.






YR

 

[CCBoy]

Jenkins right now, is a fifth round draft pick...unless a team is really desperate. Then Dallas would still have to immediately turn around and replace him...and bluntly, at least reasonable NFL quality corners don't grow on trees. As we fans should already have gleaned prior to this season.

The luster on topic just doesn't exist.

 

[CATCH17]

I would not be shocked if someone offered a 2nd, I think a 3rd is more likely because Jenkins is coming off surgery and that will normally make teams a bit leery. I would not let Jenkins go for less than a 3rd.

I think it will take a 2nd or a 3rd and a player trade to get him out of Dallas.

Hopefully they want a kings ransom because I would rather just keep him than let him go for a 3rd or 4th.

 

[tyke1doe]

No less than a third. If a team comes talking anything less than a third, I hang up the phone if I'm Jerry Jones.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think it will take a 2nd or a 3rd and a player trade to get him out of Dallas.

Hopefully they want a kings ransom because I would rather just keep him than let him go for a 3rd or 4th.

I would be more inclined to keep him if all we could get was a 3rd or 4th. 2nd rd pick and it was good knowing you with you the best of luck.

 

[jterrell]

Excellent post Theo!!!

I pondered the same question driving to work.

Jenkins is a top 30 CB on a 1 year 1 mil deal.
He has injury concerns but nothing that has ever kept him off the field for long.

His value is dependent upon the deal he'll agree to in a new city.

BUT he has real value. The more teams that have interest the more that value is. The more desperate Jenkins is to move on and thus take less money on his 2nd contract to do so; the more value he has.

My early guesstimate is the Lions 3rd rounder or the Colts 4th. He'd have to agree to a contract only slightly richer than Scandrick's but could probably get that done with escalators that take him near to Carr's pay provided he starts and makes pro bowls.

 

[jterrell]

Jenkins right now, is a fifth round draft pick...unless a team is really desperate. Then Dallas would still have to immediately turn around and replace him...and bluntly, at least reasonable NFL quality corners don't grow on trees. As we fans should already have gleaned prior to this season.

The luster on topic just doesn't exist.

Gotta disagree.
Actually the colts and lions talk should indicate much luster exists. Much more than fans initially presumed.

Other teams are in fact interested and we are merely holding out for a great deal. If we do not get a great deal we may well just take a solid one to move on and keep the boat rowing in the proper direction.

 

[ufcrules1]

Gotta disagree.
Actually the colts and lions talk should indicate much luster exists. Much more than fans initially presumed.

Other teams are in fact interested and we are merely holding out for a great deal. If we do not get a great deal we may well just take a solid one to move on and keep the boat rowing in the proper direction.

Didn't we try to deal him during the draft for a 3rd round pick? Nobody wanted him then. I doubt we get better than a 3rd rounder for him.

 

[CCBoy]

Gotta disagree.
Actually the colts and lions talk should indicate much luster exists. Much more than fans initially presumed.

Other teams are in fact interested and we are merely holding out for a great deal. If we do not get a great deal we may well just take a solid one to move on and keep the boat rowing in the proper direction.

I'm really not on the inside loop at Valley Ranch, so I can't state. I just think that most 'hometown' estimates on value in the roster, at least within the past decade, have been way over valued.

And getting over on the Cowboys on disgruntled players isn't unheard of as well...

 

[Bullflop]

There little doubt his value right now isn't worth sacrificing him for. After he recovered and demonstrated he's returned to good health and ability, I'd expect no less than a third and possibly a second if his performance merits it. In the meantime, he should provide much-needed value to us this year.

 

[erod]

The premise doesn't take into account that Jenkins is coming off shoulder surgery, is chronically injured, doesn't tackle, and has a contract negotiation pending soon.

Plus, most NFL teams treat draft picks as worth more than money because you can get young players with lots of tread for cheap.

 

[Bullflop]

The premise doesn't take into account that Jenkins is coming off shoulder surgery, is chronically injured, doesn't tackle, and has a contract negotiation pending soon.

Plus, most NFL teams treat draft picks as worth more than money because you can get young players with lots of tread for cheap.

Teams aren't likely to get a third round pick with Jenkins' skills regardless of the price. No doubt, Mike will have to prove he's healthy to merit a high pick. The fact that he's reached all-pro status already is a testament to his ability. I think he'll require playing this year in Dallas to come back from his shoulder injury and prove he's OK. I wouldn't classify him as a chronic injury risk just yet, though.

 

[kirkjrk]

We should look to get no worse than a mid-2nd round pick for Jenkins. And IMO, the only thing that should prevent him from being a 1st rounder is the shoulder injury. He's still young, he's played for 4 years with a great 2nd season and a very good 4th season. He's productive and has shown that if you have a coaching staff that will stay on him, like his college coaches said all along, he will perform. So he has legitimate Pro Bowl talent and with the rookie wage scale, draft picks are worth less. If we trade him for anything less, then I believe Jerry has truly lost his negotiating skills in this league. We have all of the leverage in Jenkins' situation.






YR

I think Dallas should not only look for a good pick(3rd) for next year but also combo that with a player, equal to a 3rd round pick or agreed upon player, from the interested teams current 2012 roster. This should stand as our minimum offer we would consider. A 3rd(for next year) plus a 3rd, or agreed upon player, off current roster. This would let the teams know to not even call unless they had something equal to or better than our minimum, to offer. That way you get something that can be used this year as well as be ahead of the game for the draft next year. Example:

COLTS:

* 2013 3rd round pick

* 2012 3rd round pick TE Dwayne Allen--top one or two TEs in the 2012 draft.

Colts also selected Fleener ( # 1 ranked TE in 2012 draft) so they might be willing to deal Allen.

Many names can be plugged into the player agreed upon by the teams, but for me the important thing is to get something we can use this year, plus be ready for the draft next year.

Just a thought.

 

[noshame]

I hope we don't take anything for him short of a high 2nd right now .

Once he shows his stuff in pre-season the offers will jump considerably. If he looks real good, a 1st is not out of the question.

 

[sonnyboy]

Maybe.

If they think they can have him cheap, maybe that's as far as their interest goes.

I'm still curious why any team would both trade a high draft pick and sign him to a long term deal when they could simply draft a CB in the first round next year and pay half as much.

Mike Jenkins gonna put the Colts over the top? Probably not.

2012. Lions have to believe they can contend in 2012 IF they can make enough defensive improvements. Drafting a CB in the 2013 draft will not help them in 2012.