What is Mike Jenkins' Trade Value?

[sonnyboy]

Jenkins right now, is a fifth round draft pick...unless a team is really desperate. Then Dallas would still have to immediately turn around and replace him...and bluntly, at least reasonable NFL quality corners don't grow on trees. As we fans should already have gleaned prior to this season.

The luster on topic just doesn't exist.

 

[Bowdown27]

The closer we get to camp the more likely he is traded and for a higher pick then we think. Someone who thinks they can contend will pony up a second rounder like the lions. The colts will prob offer a 3rd at most because they will not be that good.

 

[sonnyboy]

Didn't we try to deal him during the draft for a 3rd round pick? Nobody wanted him then. I doubt we get better than a 3rd rounder for him.

Team's value their picks soooooo much more on draft day then they do any other time of the year.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

A 2nd rd pick for an somewhat inconsistent, somewhat injured CB in the final year of his contract who is looking for a long-term contract similar to what Finnegan and Carr got?

If Jerry Jones can pull that off on top of only giving up a 2nd to move up 8 slots to draft Claiborne, he should be up for GM of the year.

No one is going to offer a 2nd for Jenkins unless they can work out a long-term contract first. What team in their right mind would give him a top dollar, long term contract right now?

Maybe a 4th or 5th (maybe even a third?) and some team might take a gamble with his present contract. For that price, the team could gamble and let him play out the year and possibly franchise him if he had a good year.

 

[sonnyboy]

Gotta disagree.
Actually the colts and lions talk should indicate much luster exists. Much more than fans initially presumed.

Other teams are in fact interested and we are merely holding out for a great deal. If we do not get a great deal we may well just take a solid one to move on and keep the boat rowing in the proper direction.

Many fans on this site are incapable of looking at the situation beyond how it effects the Cowboys.

His contract with us, his position on our depth chart, his desire to play/stay here.

All of that has about zero impact on the situation beyond of course our willingness to entertain offers.

What we will trade him for is exactly what the market will bare and that of course is nothing less than the highest bid.

Highest bid = strongest desire to acquire his services in 2012 among the other 31 teams.

 

[Verdict]

Executive Summary: Jenkins is worth much more than I think people expect. His expected production should be at least a second round pick in 2013, possibly a first (though it's unlikely for someone to part with a first). Based on a review of the draft, people expect entirely too much out of mid-round corners. I estimate there's less than a 10% chance of finding a corner equivalent to Jenkins in the third and fourth rounds of the NFL draft. And I estimate there's a less than 5% chance of finding a better corner.

Reports have been that the trade offers have been "compelling". I've seen "a [fourth] [third] at best" said so many times I can't count, and the range is as low as a seventh round pick. So let's consider what that means.

First, we have to discount the value of the pick. If someone is giving up a future draft pick, the rule of thumb is to discount the pick by a full round. Thus, if a team offers its 2013 first round pick, we value it as a second. A third round pick is valued as a fourth, and so on.

Next, let's look at the production that Jenkins would provide to another team. When he is healthy, everyone would expect Jenkins to start every single game for the Lions or the Colts. But what level of play should they expect? In 2009, we can all agree that Jenkins had a legitimate pro bowl season. The 2010 season is hard to gauge. There's no doubt that Jenkins played terribly. The doubt comes when trying to determine the cause -- did he simply quit with the rest of the defense? Or was that more indicative of his ability? Looking at the 2011 season, one would have to conclude the former. He wasn't great in 2011, but he was certainly closer to his 2009 performance than his 2010 performance. I think somewhere between that 2011 and 2009 performance is what you can reasonably expect out of Jenkins. That would put him among the better corners in the league, capable of starting every game and excelling at times. There's no doubt that he would be an immediate significant improvement for either the Colts or the Lions.

Now, let's compare what you can expect out of a drafted corner. Let's assume a team was willing to give us a 2013 second or third round draft pick -- generally higher than most people on this forum think he's worth. Those picks would discount to a 2012 third or fourth round pick (yes, the draft is over, but we have to discount). I ran numbers on every corner (as listed on NFL.com, though some have switched to safety and back) from 2008 forward to see what sort of player we're talking about. This amounted to a group of 54 players drafted, thus we should have a good feel for what you can expect out of these draft picks.

On average, these 54 players started only 3.0 games per season. And they played in 10.5 games per season (much of the snaps in those games probably were in special teams). By comparison, Jenkins started in 11.5 games per season and played in 14.5 games per season. Only 5 out of the 54 players started in at least 10 games per season. Only 13 of the 54 players started in at least 5 games per season. Over half of these draft picks have started in less than 2 games per season over their career.

These 54 players average 0.588 INTs per season. Jenkins averages 2.0 INTs per season (over three times as many INTs). Only 4 out of 54 players averaged more INTs per season than Jenkins. Nearly half of these players haven't even managed a single INT in their career. In all, I'd say there are only 3-4 players out of the 54 drafted in those rounds that I'd consider even in the same ball park as Mike Jenkins. None of them are appreciably better.

Based on this limited research, I'd estimate there's less than a 10% chance of finding a corner equivalent to Jenkins in the third and fourth rounds of the NFL draft. And I'd say there's a less than 5% chance of finding a better corner.

So, let me ask you. If you're the Colts or the Lions, and you're looking for a corner, what you would expect to receive more production from -- a third or fourth round pick? Or Mike Jenkins?

I agree with this analysis which is why I said Jenkins was worth at least a 3rd and a 4th. I can't see letting Jenkins go for less than that. If we let Jenkins go for less than that then we didn't get good value in trade. I could easily see a 2nd round pick being the compensation for the trade.

I can't see us getting a first round pick for him from the Colts because they should be picking high. I guess it isn't outside the realm of possibility for a team like Detroit to give up a 1st for him since they should be picking in the bottom of the 1st round, and they might view Jenkins as enabling them to compete for a super bowl.

I think the most likely compensation for the trade would be either a 2nd, or a 3rd and a 4th.

 

[sonnyboy]

I agree with this analysis which is why I said Jenkins was worth at least a 3rd and a 4th. I can't see letting Jenkins go for less than that. If we let Jenkins go for less than that then we didn't get good value in trade. I could easily see a 2nd round pick being the compensation for the trade.

I can't see us getting a first round pick for him from the Colts because they should be picking high. I guess it isn't outside the realm of possibility for a team like Detroit to give up a 1st for him since they should be picking in the bottom of the 1st round, and they might view Jenkins as enabling them to compete for a super bowl.

I think the most likely compensation for the trade would be either a 2nd, or a 3rd and a 4th.

Good post and it gave me an interesting thought. Perhaps we should be looking to have a conditional selection attached to any deal we agree to.

Hypothetically speaking, lets say we decide Jenkins is worth the 33rd selection in the 2013 draft AND we find a trading partner who agrees.

Then I want a 2nd rd pick contingent on where that team's 2nd pick falls.
33-37 = 2nd rd pick
38-43 = 2nd and 7th
44-49 = 2nd and 6th
50-55 = 2nd and 5th
56-60 = 2nd and 4th
60-64 = 2nd and 3rd

 

[junk]

Jenkins right now, is a fifth round draft pick...unless a team is really desperate. Then Dallas would still have to immediately turn around and replace him...and bluntly, at least reasonable NFL quality corners don't grow on trees. As we fans should already have gleaned prior to this season.

The luster on topic just doesn't exist.

A 2nd rd pick for an somewhat inconsistent, somewhat injured CB in the final year of his contract who is looking for a long-term contract similar to what Finnegan and Carr got?

If Jerry Jones can pull that off on top of only giving up a 2nd to move up 8 slots to draft Claiborne, he should be up for GM of the year.

No one is going to offer a 2nd for Jenkins unless they can work out a long-term contract first. What team in their right mind would give him a top dollar, long term contract right now?

Maybe a 4th or 5th (maybe even a third?) and some team might take a gamble with his present contract. For that price, the team could gamble and let him play out the year and possibly franchise him if he had a good year.

I think you guys are more on track with what his real value is.

 

[jterrell]

Mike Jenkins has been an extremely inconsistent player at a position that demands consistency. The Cowboys jumped all over Morris Claiborne for a reason after they replaced Newman with Brandon Carr, imso.

Here are the last three years of YPA for Mike Jenkins according to K.C. Joyner:

2009: 5.4

2010: 11.4

2011: 7.1 (12 games)

During the past three seasons, Jenkins has averaged a very poor 8.0 YPA. That number goes up to 9.25 YPA for 2010 and 2011. That is really, really bad. Consider that Newman was at 9.7 last year. Furthermore, Newman consistently rated among the very best corners in YPA (from 2004-2007). That doesn't include Newman's stellar 2003 rookie year, either. In fact, Newman rated number 2, from 2004-2007, according to a Rafael Vela analyis, via Joyner's stats. In 2008 and 2009, Newman was still a top-notch CB, when healthy, and he made the pro bowl in 2009.

While Jenkins was one of the very best CBs in 2009 and deserved his pro bowl status, he was one of the very worst CBs in the NFL during 2010. In 2010, Jenkins' ability to defend the deep pass and intercept the football dropped off the table. For all of the hype about Jenkins' ball skills, Jenkins has only averaged 2 INT per year, and he has three seasons with just 1.

I'm not sold on Jenkins having big time trade value unless a team just gets desperate and carelessly throws Dallas a high valued pick. I guess you could always try. We'll see.

Also, I'm not sold on this big "competition" between Claiborne and Jenkins. I think the 6th pick of the draft starts day one, and I think that choice has already been made. Newman was the 5th pick of the draft and won the Thorpe Award, just like Claiborne. Newman was a day one starter and had a great rookie year. Claiborne should be able to do the same thing.

I think Jenkins is a starting caliber CB, but I'm not sure just how good he really is, because he hasn't demonstrated consistency. In fact, Jenkins' play has been all over the place.

You are cherry-picking one stat.
Jenkins has been a top 30 CB for the past 3 years and has gained experience and played through injury.

He is a very legit #2 CB for anyone in football.

 

[Tezz]

Having interest does not equate to teams entering a bidding war... This is not FA, a lot of factors such as contract status and etc play a huge part in trade talks for leverage. If you know a team is trying to unload a player your going to low-ball them to a degree. There aren't many player trades in the NFL b/c there are so many things to consider.

A much better albeit older Asante Samuel was traded for a 7th rounder, Brandon Marshall was traded for 2 3s and Demeco Ryans for a 4th and 3rd swap of picks and these were players with more then 1 year left on their deals...

I think either the Cowboys accept 2 mid-late round picks or they are just going to keep him. With all that said it only takes one team like the Raiders with Carson Palmer last year to bite...

 

[jterrell]

Having interest does not equate to teams entering a bidding war... This is not FA, a lot of factors such as contract status and etc play a huge part in trade talks for leverage. If you know a team is trying to unload a player your going to low-ball them to a degree. There aren't many player trades in the NFL b/c there are so many things to consider.

A much better albeit older Asante Samuel was traded for a 7th rounder, Brandon Marshall was traded for 2 3s and Demeco Ryans for a 4th and 3rd swap of picks and these were players with more then 1 year left on their deals...

I think either the Cowboys accept 2 mid-late round picks or they are just going to keep him. With all that said it only takes one team like the Raiders with Carson Palmer last year to bite...

And we've seen players be traded for significantly more than those deals as well.

Jenkins is available same as he would be via free agency.
Whatever team gets him isn't going to be likely to just rent him but instead will pick up that long-term deal. Jenkins will have to give them some injury protection and a year 1 discount but he seems very reasonable and somewhat more aware than the average fan.

Mike Jenkins was on basically everyone's list last year as a top 10 Cowboy. Now that we have replaced him he is a dog, apparently. He has 45 starts and is still just 27 years old.

Jenkins is a very solid CB. He is definitely a walk in starter for at least 10 teams.

Asante was paid huge dollars which was the issue with him. HUGE dollars and age at a position where age kills you. He had a richer contract than Carr at 56 mil. His new ATL deal calls for a fully guaranteed 4m+ base and another 3 or 4 MIL roster bonus next off-season.

Brandon Marshall can't stay out of headlines for the wrong reasons and DeMeco Ryans is a small inside linebacker who only fits a few systems which is why he was traded int he first place.

Asante Samuel was available for a couple years in trade and no one offered anything. Jenkins has been available and month and we know at least 1 team admits calling about him.

 

[theogt]

How much trade value does Brandon Carr currently have for the cowboys?

You would be unlikely to find anyone of his caliber even in the middle of the 1st round next year. So is he worth a first?

He's actually worth basically nothing. The reason he has no trade value is that he is paid exactly what he is worth. That is the entire purpose of free agency. If he was worth so much, another team would have paid him that.

That's why it's so rare to see players traded who need to sign contracts. The only times you see this is when a team is desperate for a player at that position, it is rare and hard to find that player and he is "the missing piece", or that team feels like they're "1 player away" (aka, roy williams). They can have value beyond their salary for the sole reason that there is a salary cap, and a player can't be paid what they're worth even after free agency. This is the main reason there are so many trades in the nba for max players, they are all underpaid.

The main way draft picks have value is that draft picks are extremely underpaid, rather than the other source of value in that they are one of the few ways to acquire new talent. Mike Jenkins is extremely underpaid next year. He is basically worth the value of how much he is underpaid next year, which is about 8 million dollars.

So, the question is, what is the drat pick that is worth 8 million dollars?

Since he is a free agent following next year, he has limited value beyond that.

You're right that this analysis does not account for salary. You're wrong that a free agent necessarily signs for the market clearing price, which should be obvious.

Also, while Jenkins doesn't have several more years of a rookie contract, he provides much more immediate impact than a younger player because there is no "welcome to the NFL" learning curve.

Would you rather pay (a) $6-8 million per season and a second/third/fourth round pick for Jenkins or (b) a rookie contract for a less than 5% chance of finding someone better?

To hammer home the point about free agency not clearing the market, check out this discussion about Carr's consideration of other teams' offers during free agency. Basically he didn't even listen to other offers.

http://www.foxsportssouthwest.com/0...nding_cowboys.html?blockID=737048&feedID=4680

The night of March 13 was supposed to be a joyous one for Brandon Carr. The first day of NFL free agency had opened and he was arguably the best cornerback on the market.

Carr was also in the city where he dreamed of playing as a kid – Dallas.

But according to his cousin and best friend, Terrance Robinson, after meeting with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, head coach Jason Garrett, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and a handful of the franchise's top players, uncertainty crept into Carr's mind.

"Man, I don't know what's going on," Carr told Robinson over the phone. "They haven't spoken anything about money or contract or anything.

"If it doesn't happen, I don't know where I'm going to go."

Carr, who says he doesn't recall being nervous that night at the Omni Hotel near the Cowboys' Valley Ranch practice facility, wanted to be a Dallas Cowboy so bad that he wasn't concerned about the other teams that were interested.

"For him, it was always the Dallas Cowboys," said Robinson, an assistant football coach at Northern Colorado. "It was always Dallas, Dallas, Dallas. He loved that star."

 

[jterrell]

To hammer home the point about free agency not clearing the market, check out this discussion about Carr's consideration of other teams' offers during free agency. Basically he didn't even listen to other offers.

http://www.foxsportssouthwest.com/0...nding_cowboys.html?blockID=737048&feedID=4680

Yup and like Carr has always targeted Dallas; Jenkins loves Florida.
With three teams in that state it is fairly easy to believe he'd go home if a true free agent.

Indy, the Lions or Titans probably have to get him now if they want him ever.
A couple mil means next to nothing versus living at home where your heart is in a state without an income tax.

How much less did LeBron take to go to South Beach?

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I think Dallas should not only look for a good pick(3rd) for next year but also combo that with a player, equal to a 3rd round pick or agreed upon player, from the interested teams current 2012 roster. This should stand as our minimum offer we would consider. A 3rd(for next year) plus a 3rd, or agreed upon player, off current roster. This would let the teams know to not even call unless they had something equal to or better than our minimum, to offer. That way you get something that can be used this year as well as be ahead of the game for the draft next year. Example:

COLTS:

* 2013 3rd round pick

* 2012 3rd round pick TE Dwayne Allen--top one or two TEs in the 2012 draft.

Colts also selected Fleener ( # 1 ranked TE in 2012 draft) so they might be willing to deal Allen.

Many names can be plugged into the player agreed upon by the teams, but for me the important thing is to get something we can use this year, plus be ready for the draft next year.

Just a thought.

I think we should remember that Dallas has all of the leverage here. Not the other teams and not Jenkins.

Dallas doesn’t have much to gain by trading Jenkins unless it’s for a really good pick in next year’s draft. That’s it.

Let’s say we keep Jenkins around. He’s potentially the best corner on the team. When he’s on, he’s as good if not better than Carr. And we don’t know about Claiborne, yet. And the reason we jumped up to take Claiborne is we had him the #2 overall pick in the draft that fell to #6, which the team didn’t think would happen. So the team was probably fine with Carr and Jenkins as the starting CB’s going into the draft, we just saw a situation that they felt they couldn’t pass up.

So if Jenkins stays, we can use him if he’s just playing great OR if he’s playing better than Claiborne or Carr *if* they are struggling or if one of them gets injured.

If Jenkins plays WELL, we can franchise him or give him an Exclusive Rights Tag for 2013. We could also let him go to FA and possibly be rewarded with a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick in 2014 (of course, some things would need to happen for that to occur).

The big thing for the team is that they are not paying Jenkins a ton of money. That would give them less leverage. But since that’s not the case and Jenkins is a type of corner who can fit in most defensive schemes because he’s a prototype Cover-2 corner, I just don’t see the need to be anxious to trade him.

As far as injuries go, IIRC cornerback is the most oft-injured position in the league. I don’t think Jenkins is out of the ordinary as far as injuries go. The questions is if his shoulder will hold up, which by all accounts it should.

So I say if teams want him, they had better be ready to part with a high pick. And by waiting, the Cowboys actually give themselves MORE leverage and/or put themselves in a better position.




YR

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

People who want to trade Jenkins don't want to win now. Keep the guy. We'll have the best 3rd and 4th corners in the league.

That's how the Patriots beat the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf". They loaded up with cornerbacks. Viola, Super Bowls... plural.

 

[sonnyboy]

People who want to trade Jenkins don't want to win now. Keep the guy. We'll have the best 3rd and 4th corners in the league.

That's how the Patriots beat the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf". They loaded up with cornerbacks. Viola, Super Bowls... plural.

Not true for me.

I agree with the last post that he could be our best CB. Hopefully the right people get his ear and remind him of this and how importnant it is for him to get to camp on time and compete for a starting job.

I feel this team needs in order a FS, OC or 3rd WR more than it needs Mike Jenkins.

Maybe we can use the pick we get for Jenkins to secure talent at one fo those spots. Perhaps from a team with similar glut of talent at the position as we have at CB.

 

[Hoofbite]

People who want to trade Jenkins don't want to win now. Keep the guy. We'll have the best 3rd and 4th corners in the league.

That's how the Patriots beat the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf". They loaded up with cornerbacks. Viola, Super Bowls... plural.

Or they are thinking about the future and how having an extra draft pick would help for multiple years while it's all but concluded that Jenkins is taking the first flight out of Dallas next March.

 

[TheCount]

People who want to trade Jenkins don't want to win now. Keep the guy. We'll have the best 3rd and 4th corners in the league.

That's how the Patriots beat the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf". They loaded up with cornerbacks. Viola, Super Bowls... plural.

There you have it. If we keep Mike Jenkins we will win the superbowl, if not, we are doomed.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

People who want to trade Jenkins don't want to win now. Keep the guy. We'll have the best 3rd and 4th corners in the league.

That's how the Patriots beat the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf". They loaded up with cornerbacks. Viola, Super Bowls... plural.

Otis Smith and Ty Law?

I want the best for the Cowboys when all is said and done.

The problem with keeping Jenkins is that if Carr and Claiborne are good enough to start and better than Jenkins, there's not a lot of room for him to play unless he's a better slot corner than we think or we can move either Carr or Claiborne to the slot and move Jenkins to the outside on passing downs.

The neat thing for the organization is Jenkins provides a helluva insurance policy in case a corner gets hurt and corners tend to get hurt. But the reality is that most teams do not run a lot of 4-WR sets and still opt for more 11 and 12 personnel groupings.

Now...maybe we can find a right combination of getting all 4 corners on the field and use them to cover 3 WR's and a tight end. Green Bay was doing that for a while with Charles Woodson owning tight ends. But, that's still a bit iffy, particularly if a team like the Niners decides to run the ball out of 11 personnel.

So if a team would trade a 1st round pick for Jenkins and coming into the season Scandrick, Carr and Claiborne are all ready to go and are healthy, I would take it because I think in the end, that would be the best move for the team. But, at a 3rd rounder I'll pass.

Doesn't mean that me or somebody else with that thinking doesn't want to win now...I just want to the team to play the odds, in what I believe, would be in their favor.






YR

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I still question if Jenkins is going to be healthy enough to start the season.