Good post and on point.
I see 2 very telling reasons that they stay the course with Dak. It is apparent that Jerry wants to win now with keeping McCarthy and even saying all in. If you were going to trade or cut or let him play on the current contract then you would not have kept McCarthy. Cutting Dak leaves you with also zero options at QB unless the team is not telling us how good or bad Trey Lance is. There is no chance we ride with Rush as the starting QB in 2024.
Trading Dak could be the start of a rebuild for what you would get for him which contrary to what the fans think would bring at least 2 1st round picks and more. But no trade is going to give you anywhere near what the productivity of Dak has been. We aren't getting any of the top 3 candidates at QB in the draft so forget moving up in the draft unless you are willing to give up 3 1st round picks. Regardless of what you think of Nix, Penex, or J J McCarthy, they appear to be not much better than Rush and definitely not ready to start in the NFL. (For that matter, the top 3 aren't as good as CJ Stoud IMO)
We could just ride with Dak this year on his current contract and hopefully draft one in 2025 but again McCarthy is going to do his best to win this year so expect another 12-5 season especially with I believe a much improved defense under Zimmer. Then you face the dilemma in 2025 with Dak a free agent getting far more than you could sign him this year for and no way to franchise tag him so drafting a QB late 1st hasn't been great for any team. Plus the fact your options for signing free agents this year would only come with quite a few restructures of other players. Sort of the rock and the hard place situation.
Then there is the Jerry factor. I do believe that he wants to win now because his time isn't another 10 years and the rebuilding takes more than year especially with a toss up of 50-50 on a rookie QB. Don't think he is willing to go down that road. Yet again that could be something about Trey Lance we don't know that change everything.
The first part of March is the key though. By March 13th we have to be under the cap in order to sign free agents. We have other free agents on the team currently we want to keep so getting those signed and getting under the cap makes the decision on Dak that more urgent. If we are going to trade him, first he has to agree to the trade to that team and second Dallas has to agree on the compensation for him. Dak is going to want a new contract from the new team so before he accepts to be traded then the new team will need to come to terms with him also. The betting is that Dak will get roughly $60 million a year for 5 years on his new deal. That's a lot of things to happen over the next 3 weeks.
So if we want to trade Dak, then the most likely place he would agree would be Atlanta because they have the most ready team to win on both sides of the ball. Minnesota and Pittsburgh would be next up because Dak isn't going to go to a rebuilding team unless it is $70 million a year contract and most of it guaranteed. Forget Justin Fields because if you don't like Dak, Fields isn't going to be any better and Fields is likely to go to Atlanta at a much lower cost.
So options are limited and Dak being extended for more than most care, will probably happen. So we must hope Jerry is really serious about all in to improve the defense especially in stopping the run, improve the OL, and improve the running game or we will keep posting the same old things in 2025.
