When Quarterbacks Go 1-2 Overall in the Draft

[plasticman]

I'm a believer that the 2nd quarterback, drafted #2 overall is almost always a reach and does not have even close to the overall performance results of the #1 overall.

It has happened 6 times since 1970:

1971 Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning

1993 Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer

1998 Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf

1999 Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb

2012 Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin

2014 Jamies Winston, Marcus Mariota

Super Bowl Championships:

#1 4
#2 0

Pro Bowls:

#1 22
#2 9

Combined starting years:

#1 46
#2 31

I think that moving up to take the #2 overall pick to get the "other" quarterback is a sign of desperation.

Your opinion?

 

[waving monkey]

can't know depends

 

[noshame]

There are three (at least) QB's in this draft who have all they need to perform well in this league, all you need is the right QB coach and the right system.

 

[DuDa]

We tend to look at these QB as if they are walking into situation that is set up for them to succeed. I challenge all of you to examine the entire picture when calling some of these players busts. They are not all Ryan Leaf's here. Some are David Carr's that have no offensive line and terrible coaching and very little chance of success. A young QB would be walking into Dallas with everything set up for them to succeed and to do it BIG.

 

[Techsass]

Shhhh...we're not supposed to say anything positive in regards to coaching or the organization.

 

[Oh_Canada]

All I know is this...we can't predict anything about QB's:

Three of top ten/twelve qb's drafted third round or later:

Brady, Wilson, Romo

Four top five:

Luck, Ryan, Palmer, Newton

The Rest

Rodgers, Raplessberger, Brees, Dalton, Rivers

 

[JBell]

Out of those six #2 picks

-Two pro bowlers
-Three busts
-One TBD

I get your reasoning, but I don't think you can really conclude anything from that data with such a SSS.

 

[pancakeman]

To make this case I think you'd have to somehow measure QB #2 outcomes vs. other positions selected #2 in the draft. Not saying what you're saying wouldn't hold up, but isn't just comparing #1 picks vs. #2 picks a bit apples and oranges?

 

[TonyS]

Like Jbell said, small sample size. What I hope doesn't happen is that we reach for Wentz at #2 as we lose valuable draft picks and we need as many as we can get right now.

As much as I disagree with the FO, you have to hope like they do that with Morris and DMAC and a draft pick behind our o-line, and Romo playing smarter, we can keep him upright this year. Any QB is one hit away from a season-ending injury.

Odds are that Wentz is not going to be able to replace Romo this year anyway if he goes down. So, his presence behind Romo or as the #3 gives us nothing of real value this year.

If we keep our 4th and select BPA or trade down in hopes of picking up Lynch, Elliott or BPA in the top 15, I think those are smarter moves for the organization.

It is dangerous to fall in love with a player and I hope the Boys play this smart, rather than emotional.

 

[Kaiser]

The Rams clearly overpaid and they did so because they are in "Win Now" mode. Brugler's draft guide has the top two QBs 9th and 10th overall in this draft, IMO they aren't the level of talent you normally see in the top two picks.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

I'm a believer that the 2nd quarterback, drafted #2 overall is almost always a reach and does not have even close to the overall performance results of the #1 overall.

It has happened 6 times since 1970:

1971 Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning

1993 Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer

1998 Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf

1999 Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb

2012 Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin

2014 Jamies Winston, Marcus Mariota

Super Bowl Championships:

#1 4
#2 0

Pro Bowls:

#1 22
#2 9

Combined starting years:

#1 46
#2 31

I think that moving up to take the #2 overall pick to get the "other" quarterback is a sign of desperation.

Your opinion?

So out of your 6, we can throw out 2014, because we don't really know enough. Mariotta looked just as good prior to the injury, but him and Winston should be thrown out, making it 5 that we can reasonably infer data from. So out of that 5, we also have one clear case (1999) that doesn't fit what you are saying. And 1 case (1971) where both QBs were statistically speaking horrible their first few years due to be on very bad teams. Plunkett did turn it around later in his career and win 2 SBs with the Raiders, which was his 3rd team, but Archie made 2 pro bowls in his career, while Plunkett never made one. An argument could be made that if Archie was on a team as good as the Raiders, he could have won a Super Bowl.

So what we're left with are 3 drafts since 1970 that fit your point. And even then, the success or lack there of, of Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf and Robert Griffin III has nothing to do with the success or lack there of, of who ever ends up being the 2nd QB taken. Just like McNabb bucked the trend, Goff or Wentz can. Using that as a reason, and not the individual merits of the prospect, as a reason to not take them, makes about as much sense as avoiding taking a QB at #2 who's name begins with "R" because they have all been busts.

 

[JW82]

I don't agree with the logic. But the stats are compelling.

I'm a believer that the 2nd quarterback, drafted #2 overall is almost always a reach and does not have even close to the overall performance results of the #1 overall.

It has happened 6 times since 1970:

1971 Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning

1993 Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer

1998 Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf

1999 Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb

2012 Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin

2014 Jamies Winston, Marcus Mariota

Super Bowl Championships:

#1 4
#2 0

Pro Bowls:

#1 22
#2 9

Combined starting years:

#1 46
#2 31

I think that moving up to take the #2 overall pick to get the "other" quarterback is a sign of desperation.

Your opinion?

 

[Killerinstinct]

Manning better than Plunket and Mcnabb better than couch.

I personally would not draft a QB this year other than Kevin Hogan in the 6th or the prospect from Liberty as a UDFA.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Not enough data, but I think the point would be that if we have only seen roughly a 8-10 "elite" quarterbacks in the last fifteen years or so, then it is highly unlikely that there are two in one draft and most likely the second (or both) team is reaching.
Last year was kind of interesting because both QBs were Heisman trophy winners and national champs. You don't see that every day.

 

[JoeKing]

Interesting theory but it's not iron clad fact. You can't predict how future careers will go by looking at past careers. It's a case by case judgement. The better QB this draft depends on who you ask. The one drafted first doesn't condemn the other to a lesser career.

 

[AzorAhai]

What do any of those players have to do with any of these players this year? Nothing in your post has anything to do with individual player evaluations this year. Therefore it means absolutely nothing.

 

[Bullflop]

What QBs will go one and two in the draft? To best of my judgment, it's a tossup. Nobody really knows -- not even the so-called "experts."

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

Godd is clearly the only choice.

 

[Beast_from_East]

I'm a believer that the 2nd quarterback, drafted #2 overall is almost always a reach and does not have even close to the overall performance results of the #1 overall.

It has happened 6 times since 1970:

1971 Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning

1993 Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer

1998 Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf

1999 Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb

2012 Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin

2014 Jamies Winston, Marcus Mariota

Super Bowl Championships:

#1 4
#2 0

Pro Bowls:

#1 22
#2 9

Combined starting years:

#1 46
#2 31

I think that moving up to take the #2 overall pick to get the "other" quarterback is a sign of desperation.

Your opinion?

I think Archie Manning was a better overall QB than Plunket, just stuck on a horrible Saints team.

I think Donavan McNabb was a better QB than Tim Couch

I think Marcus Marriotta is a more accurate passer than Winston (Marriotta 62% completion to Winston 58% completion)


So out of your 6 examples, I think the #2 QB is actually the better one 50% of the time.

 

[TheCount]

The Rams clearly overpaid and they did so because they are in "Win Now" mode. Brugler's draft guide has the top two QBs 9th and 10th overall in this draft, IMO they aren't the level of talent you normally see in the top two picks.

They didn't overpay to move to the spot. Arguing over whether the QBs are 9th or 10th values when both would probably be gone by 15 (Rams original pick) seems a little pointless.