When Quarterbacks Go 1-2 Overall in the Draft

[Beast_from_East]

The Rams clearly overpaid and they did so because they are in "Win Now" mode. Brugler's draft guide has the top two QBs 9th and 10th overall in this draft, IMO they aren't the level of talent you normally see in the top two picks.

Actually if you go by the standard trade chart and how picks next year are valued, the Rams paid about 90-95% of face value.

In other words, the Titan's pick was worth 3000 points and the value of the picks the Rams sent to the Titans was valued anywhere from 2700-2900 depending on how you value the 1st and 3rd next year.

This equates to about 90-95% of face value on the standard chart...................THIS WAS NOT AN OVERPAY, ACTUALLY A SMALL DISCOUNT

 

[slick325]

Appreciate the research....just shows the value the position has although you know that the grades may be inflated.

 

[cowboys2233]

I'm a believer that the 2nd quarterback, drafted #2 overall is almost always a reach and does not have even close to the overall performance results of the #1 overall.

It has happened 6 times since 1970:

1971 Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning

1993 Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer

1998 Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf

1999 Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb

2012 Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin

2014 Jamies Winston, Marcus Mariota

Super Bowl Championships:

#1 4
#2 0

Pro Bowls:

#1 22
#2 9

Combined starting years:

#1 46
#2 31

I think that moving up to take the #2 overall pick to get the "other" quarterback is a sign of desperation.

Your opinion?

I wouldn't necessarily say desperation. If a team feels that the guy at #2 is also a franchise changer, more power to them. But in this case, I think this pattern would hold true because I think...

#1 (which will be Goff) - multiple Pro Bowl selections
#2 (Wentz) - will **** himself on the field and become a JAG in short order

 

[Shinaoi]

Despite where they are taken, wentz and goff do remind me of flacco and ryan. Two qbs of the same class who will always be compared. One is the bigger guy, the other more of a finesse passer.

 

[Kevinicus]

All I know is this...we can't predict anything about QB's:

Three of top ten/twelve qb's drafted third round or later:

Brady, Wilson, Romo

Four top five:

Luck, Ryan, Palmer, Newton

The Rest

Rodgers, Raplessberger, Brees, Dalton, Rivers

Pretty sure Rivers was top 5 (4?)

 

[erod]

It's understandable because teams without a QB are just wasting their time.

Desperation breeds risk.

 

[BrassCowboy]

a few of those combos I am not seeing as failures, but

this post reply is really to just say I do not buy into all this monday morning quarterback stuff. if the 2nd qb is who you think he is, you grab him. I mean look a lot of people have said Wentz is gonna be first guy picked, now I am hearing that Rams are gonna grab Goff so what does that mean?it means stats like this mean nothing

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Pretty sure Rivers was top 5 (4?)

yes he was

 

[plasticman]

Small sample size to be sure. However, my premise is that QB's drafted #2 overall are not the 2nd best players in the draft, just the 2nd best QB.

I think their value is overrated precisely because the #1 overall is a QB. In fact, I would claim that the #1 QB is often overrated and that further exaggerates the value of the 2nd best QB.

I counted five times where a quarterback was taken #1 overall in favor of an eventual Hall of Famer or possible future Hall of Famer.

JeMarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson

David Carr over Julius Peppers

Jeff George over Cortez Kennedy

Steve Bartkowski over Randy White

Sam Bradford over Ndamukong Suh (okay, maybe a reach, but you get my point)

I would say that not only are these two quarterback, Wendt and Goff, not even a top 5 player, Lynch should not be considered a 1st round pick.

 

[Kaiser]

Actually if you go by the standard trade chart and how picks next year are valued, the Rams paid about 90-95% of face value.

In other words, the Titan's pick was worth 3000 points and the value of the picks the Rams sent to the Titans was valued anywhere from 2700-2900 depending on how you value the 1st and 3rd next year.

This equates to about 90-95% of face value on the standard chart...................THIS WAS NOT AN OVERPAY, ACTUALLY A SMALL DISCOUNT

That assumes you are trading for a first overall pick and taking a clear #1 talent like an Andrew Luck. In this draft Wentz and Goff are rated on a talent basis between the 5th overall pick (1700 points) and 10th (1300 points). Both will go higher out of need, not talent.

If you trade 2700 points for a player that should go in that 1300 - 1700 range its an overpayment. And IMO starting a rookie QB increases the odds that the future #1 pick the Rams gave up will be much higher than the 15th spot it is this year.

 

[Mountaineerfan]

What about the 3rd QB drafted?

 

[Sarge]

can't know depends

Well put.

 

[Bullflop]

What about the 3rd QB drafted?

Good point. Most of us are assuming QB#3 is destined to be picked by another team in the latter stages of the 1st round but that's not necessarily so. We could conceivably move down and elect to take Lynch or who knows who at that point in time. Let's face it -- the potential scenarios are quite numerous and totally unpredictable as well. In no way can we make assumptions and cover all the bases in this draft.

 

[arglebargle]

Those statistics are irrelevant. Tiny sample size, and different eras. Though the pyschology of tams choosing qbs is an interesting premise.

 

[Vinnie2u]

It's understandable because teams without a QB are just wasting their time.

Desperation breeds risk.

And not having a QB should. If you blow an entire draft on 7 QB's and 1 turns out to be the real deal it would be worth it.

 

[BAZ]

Actually if you go by the standard trade chart and how picks next year are valued, the Rams paid about 90-95% of face value.

In other words, the Titan's pick was worth 3000 points and the value of the picks the Rams sent to the Titans was valued anywhere from 2700-2900 depending on how you value the 1st and 3rd next year.

This equates to about 90-95% of face value on the standard chart...................THIS WAS NOT AN OVERPAY, ACTUALLY A SMALL DISCOUNT

Is this the standard trade chart that Jimmy Johnson created before salary cap and rookie pay scales? If the chart hasn't been updated since then and people are still working off the same values it's crazy.

 

[Ratmatt]

Archie Manning played on some awful teams,and pretty much ran for his life,for most of his career.Jim Plunkett went to a terrible Patriot team,and by the time they got good,he couldn't beat out Steve Grogan.Plunkett was in the league for a decade,before he found the right place in Oakland.If Dan Pastorini hadn't broken his leg,there is no telling what would of happened.It's all about finding the right situation.

 

[plasticman]

Archie Manning played on some awful teams,and pretty much ran for his life,for most of his career.Jim Plunkett went to a terrible Patriot team,and by the time they got good,he couldn't beat out Steve Grogan.Plunkett was in the league for a decade,before he found the right place in Oakland.If Dan Pastorini hadn't broken his leg,there is no telling what would of happened.It's all about finding the right situation.

Interestingly, Dan Pastorini was the #3 overall pick that year.

First three picks were quarterbacks has only happened twice. The other time was 1999 when the #3 pick was Akili Smith.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

And not having a QB should. If you blow an entire draft on 7 QB's and 1 turns out to be the real deal it would be worth it.

And what if none turn out to be.

 

[Vinnie2u]

And what if none turn out to be.

Then you struck out swinging