Where another "insider" thinks they are leaning at 26

[cowboyec]

0 problem addressing the trenches on either side of the ball.
regardless of position,i just want a helluva ball player.
this cat is that.

 

[beware_d-ware]

What percentage of rookies “light it up?”

Rookie OGs are not unlike any other position; peaks and valleys. The good ones are positive contributors overall as rookies.

The best quantitative source I could find for it was on a Giants fan site. They broke down both the number of rookies who got substantial playing time (the threshold varied by position, for guards, it was 10 snaps a game), and the percentage of them who were actually good (defined for all positions as a PFF grade over 70).

60 guards hit that snaps threshold from 2017-2021, and only 6 performed "good." Lots of guys play early, but almost all are average or worse. Interior OL had the lowest hit rate for rookie studs of any position.

For comparison, WR had the highest percentage of rookie contributors. 47 WRs hit the Giants guys' playing time threshold (defined as 3 targets a game), and 25 of them of them played "good".

The data set is recent, but it's pretty small, and their cutoffs for playing time and PFF grades are both arbitrary. But it does help put numbers to things.

Articles:

https://www.bigblueview.com/2022/9/...ookies-to-play-well-part-ii-defense-nfl-draft

https://www.bigblueview.com/2022/9/...okies-to-play-well-part-i-nfl-draft-ny-giants

Data sets:

Number of players	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	# per yr
Quarterback	5	4	7	5	4	5.0
Wide receiver	9	12	10	8	9	9.6
Tight end	2	2	5	4	4	3.4
Running back	7	9	7	11	13	9.4
Offensive tackle	12	11	11	9	7	10.0
Interior offensive line	15	14	13	10	8	12.0
Number with PFF grade ≥ 70
						% good
Quarterback	1	2	1	1	0	20
Wide receiver	7	6	6	2	4	52
Tight end	2	0	0	3	0	29
Running back	6	6	2	7	7	60
Offensive tackle	4	3	0	2	3	24
Interior offensive line	2	1	2	1	0	10

Number of players	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	# per yr
Edge defender	15	13	17	17	18	16
Interior defensive line	12	15	13	16	15	14.2
Off-ball linebacker	12	15	14	15	15	14.2
Cornerback	24	23	17	24	16	20.8
Safety	9	12	15	10	16	12.4
Number with PFF grade ≥ 70
						% good
Edge defender	1	3	2	2	4	15
Interior defensive line	0	2	4	6	3	21
Off-ball linebacker	3	2	1	4	3	18
Cornerback	1	3	4	7	9	23
Safety	4	1	4	4	7	32

 

[xwalker]

Right now he is in the top 50 range, certainly possible he falls to 58.

Seems doubtful.

 

[stilltheguru]

I think if Breese is there he's the pick based on the FA moves so far

 

[cnuball21]

How does he compare to Kenyon green and zion Johnson? They didn't exactly light it up as first round guards

Rated lower…probably by quite a lot.

Go sign a cheap bet and develop someone.

 

[Sydla]

I think if Breese is there he's the pick based on the FA moves so far

Ehhhhhh.............. something about this kid just doesn't sit right with me.

 

[Cowboyny]

Seems doubtful.

Guards do tend to fall, but it hasn't been the case recently.

 

[baltcowboy]

I would be ok with this. It depends on what happens with Tyron.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Guard would be incredible. Guard or Mayer are my top two picks.

 

[Carson]

Guard would be incredible. Guard or Mayer are my top two picks.

I love Avila. But 26 seems a bit too rich at the moment. Tyler Smith seemed like a bit of a reach, but it worked out. Trysten Hill was a reach that did not.

If McClay and the scouts want him at 26, I trust it.

I would much rather moving down a few and grabbing an extra pick then getting Avila.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I love Avila. But 26 seems a bit too rich at the moment. Tyler Smith seemed like a bit of a reach, but it worked out. Trysten Hill was a reach that did not.

If McClay and the scouts want him at 26, I trust it.

I would much rather moving down a few and grabbing an extra pick then getting Avila.

I want either Ocyrus the guard from Florida or Michael Mayer the TE from Notre Dame.

 

[TNCowboy]

Really like the player, but the consensus appears to be mid-2nd rounder. IMO, you take your first rounder, then sacrifice a pick to trade up if you really like him. Or trade down to 35 or so and load up on mid round picks.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I would much rather moving down a few and grabbing an extra pick then getting Avila.

This. Reaching for low-value positions is just bad process.

 

[J-man]

No thanks. Not at 26.


You have to remember that the draft content people need to drum up draft content for the next month or so. Think Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless. You just say crazy things to get people to engage.

I agree with your statement about pundits making things up, but I disagree about this. I'm all for drafting Avila or any of the top O-lineman in this draft at 26. The rebuild must continue.

 

[MrPhil]

For the most part, the team has done a really good job with their 1st round picks so I will trust them there. Yes, they totally botched a few in there but nobody is perfect.

The 2nd round is another discussion altogether. Jerry if you are reading this, stop swinging for the fences with HIGH risk players in the 2nd round .....please. Just pick good, solid, reliable football players, they will be there....they always are.

 

[Pass2Run]

Think that's a major reach at 26, probably can get him at 58. Besides where is he going to start?

I think the pick might be Felix Anudike-Uzomah.. Could also be Brian Branch.

 

[cnuball21]

I think the pick might be Felix Anudike-Uzomah.. Could also be Brian Branch.

2 of my favorite in the class. I cooled off on Branch a little from the combine but that was me overreacting. Just an absolute stud but not sure how he fits with Dono staying.

 

[Cowboyny]

I think the pick might be Felix Anudike-Uzomah.. Could also be Brian Branch.

Felix was one of the few Edge rushers they talked with at the combine, think he would be more of a bpa pick, but really think they want to add offensive difference makers in the draft. Really like Branch, but with Wilson back, there is no spot for him.

 

[Pass2Run]

Felix was one of the few Edge rushers they talked with at the combine, think he would be more of a bpa pick, but really think they want to add offensive difference makers in the draft. Really like Branch, but with Wilson back, there is no spot for him.

Yep. I really like what he's got as far as the player.

Same size as Vander Esch...so if he's willing to train at LB and DE, we got a deal.

He's the kind of player Dallas likes bc of position flex, motor, and dynamic ability.

Totally fits scheme with Quinn.

 

[cnuball21]

Yep. I really like what he's got as far as the player.

Same size as Vander Esch...so if he's willing to train at LB and DE, we got a deal.

He's the kind of player Dallas likes bc of position flex, motor, and dynamic ability.

Totally fits scheme with Quinn.

Felix is a full time edge.

If we sign him he’s the long term replacement for DLaw. Dude ain’t playing LBr.