Where does Romo Rank? (A Statistical View)

[Cowboy Brian]

Romo is my idol.

 

[chuffly]

Marino and Kelly are not viewed like Montana and Bradshaw.

Marino owns the records, but fortunately or unfortunately his not winning the big game has a place in all this.

I guess I am confused why fans of this team have this discussion when Romo has at least five more years of quality play barring injury to make a case for him being one of the best.

But if he does not win it all, he will have the same stigma as Marino. People will laud his stats, but they will also mention his lack of hardware.

It's a cruel world.

People can certainly mention the lack of hardware all they want, but it doesn't make them right. People mention all sorts of crazy things all the time.

 

[TwoDeep3]

People can certainly mention the lack of hardware all they want, but it doesn't make them right. People mention all sorts of crazy things all the time.

By the way, the entire team - not just Romo - had the talent in 2007 and the opportunity to not only go to the Super Bowl, but win it.

The team failed.

Romo was on that team.

 

[chuffly]

By the way, the entire team - not just Romo - had the talent in 2007 and the opportunity to not only go to the Super Bowl, but win it.

The team failed.

Romo was on that team.

How do you know they had the talent to do it? Isn't the fact that they failed to do it a bit of a defeater of that premise?

 

[PBJTime]

By the way, the entire team - not just Romo - had the talent in 2007 and the opportunity to not only go to the Super Bowl, but win it.

The team failed.

Romo was on that team.

Well, the point is to fix what was broken. When you look at stats, it is clear to see that Romo isn't one of those things that was broken.

It appears your logic is this: Team failed; player was on team; therefore, player is a failure.

Using that kind of logic, everybody should be replaced every year we don't win it all.

I think all that most people are trying to say is that Romo is a positive piece to this puzzle. While he may not have hardware, he certainly doesn't seem to be the problem. Maybe we should focus our energies elsewhere, on something that does need to be fixed. It feels almost like how our government runs things.

 

[burmafrd]

the 2007 Pats had all the stats and were 18-0. what about them?

 

[chuffly]

the 2007 Pats had all the stats and were 18-0. what about them?

Because on any given Sunday, any team can win. They certainly didn't lose because of lack of ability at the quarterback position though.

 

[03EBZ06]

Where did these numbers come from? How do you have a Top 16 QBs in the season ths year and not include Aaron Rogers? I'm sure he must be there somewhere but I'm not seeing him. If he's not there, then you have the question all the data and possible re-evaluate Romo against the adjusted data.

A. Rodgers isn't there because he only started 31 games.

OP is using Romo's games started (53) as a baseline for the comparison with other QBs who have had at least 53 starts.

 

[VACowboy]

Awesome stuff, DC! And I think it's worth pointing out that he usually does all this while running for his life.

Chuffy: Nicely put, everything you wrote.

TwoDeep: We quote stats and defend Tony Romo because we're Cowboys fans and the rest of the world blames him for everything that's wrong with the team. The simple truth is, Tony Romo is NOT the problem.

 

[FLCowboyFan]

Thanks for taking the time to do this analysis. This was a great read. Romo is one heck of a QB and is fun to watch

 

[JBond]

Slow day at the office DallasinDC? Great work. How long did this take to put together?

 

[DallasInDC]

Where did these numbers come from? How do you have a Top 16 QBs in the season ths year and not include Aaron Rogers? I'm sure he must be there somewhere but I'm not seeing him. If he's not there, then you have the question all the data and possible re-evaluate Romo against the adjusted data.

The data came from NFL.com. As I mentioned, this is looking at Romo's first 53 starts against other (currently) starting QBs who have at least 50 starts. The other 15 starting QB's have played in 72% or less games in their career thus far (except Kyle Orton who wouldn't have impacted the results). I did not want to compare Romos career results with Qbs who have had less than two full years of experience. Here is who I excluded:

Player TM Games %
Matt Schaub TX 38 72%
A. Rodgers GB 30 57%
J. Flacco Balt 30 57%
K. Orton Den 46 87%
M. Cassel KC 28 53%
M Ryan Atl 28 53%
M. Sanchez NYJ 13 25%
J. Russel Oak 25 47%
R. Fitzpatrick Buf 22 42%
B. Quinn Cle 12 23%
J. Freeman TB 7 13%
A. Smith SF 38 72%
M. Stafford Det 10 19%
C. Henne Mia 11 21%
V. Young Tenn 37 70%

 

[DallasInDC]

Slow day at the office DallasinDC? Great work. How long did this take to put together?

Exactly...I started Monday at work....It was the first day In forever that I didn't have meetings, all my business partners were on leave and I have been wanting to do this for sometime just to see where he ranked against the rest of the league. I spent about 3 hours on Monday. I finished it up in about 3 more hours last night - to my wife's displeasure (she thought this was the biggest waste of time) .

 

[JBond]

Exactly...I started Monday at work....It was the first day In forever that I didn't have meetings, all my business partners were on leave and I have been wanting to do this for sometime just to see where he ranked against the rest of the league. I spent about 3 hours on Monday. I finished it up in about 3 more hours last night - to my wife's displeasure (she thought this was the biggest waste of time) .

This board has some of the greatest fans in the world. Your efforts are appreciated. I have no doubt someone will be critical of it in some manner, but just ignore them. I have done a couple of pet projects myself that had my wife scratching her head, so I understand what you are talking about.

 

[Direwolf63]

Outstanding stuff. Great analysis.

The final question about Romo is playoff success. That's the final leg haters have to stand on. Hopefully, this will be finaaly dealt with this year.

This analysis should be sent off to all the so-called experts out there. And posted on Extremekins. Hopefullt that's been done already.

 

[DallasInDC]

Awesome stuff, DC! And I think it's worth pointing out that he usually does all this while running for his life.

Chuffy: Nicely put, everything you wrote.

TwoDeep: We quote stats and defend Tony Romo because we're Cowboys fans and the rest of the world blames him for everything that's wrong with the team. The simple truth is, Tony Romo is NOT the problem.

Exactly!! Everybody acknowledges that the QB is the single biggest contributor to the success of the team (not the sole contributor). Romo, as the statistics shows, has played at level that is up there with the best of the best. Yet, the media and many on here bash him because he is not flawless. They say he can never win a playoff game but has only played in 2 (what kind of sampling of data is that????) They blame him for messing up the hold on a FG a say he is JAG because of a non QB play???? They say the only measure of a great QB is Playoffs and SB's so Romo is a fluke, yet Brees is a top 3 with a record of 1-2 in the playoffs after 8 years of being a starter - he has played 69 more games than Romo yet has only made the playoff twice and only has 1 more win than Romo. At least Romo has made the playoff 2 out of three years as a starter (hopefully 3out of 4 ray: ).

He is breaking Cowboys records left and right. Is producing stats that puts him in the presence of the great QB's of all time. And he is an UDFA. Romo is a special talent that will only be recognized by many when he is long gone ande we are suffering because of it.

 

[adbutcher]

 

[twentytwo]

Awesome stuff here. I've been saying all year that he is a top 5 quarterback.

 

[Direwolf63]

I agree it's about the prize. And that's why you try to assemble as many great pieces as you can in order to be able to win. Like it or not, Romo is one of those great pieces.

Unfortunately, he's not the only piece necessary to be a winning team as the Cowboys have clearly found out, but he does get this team closer to its goals. It's up to the rest of the team to find out how to get to bridge the rest of that gap (not to absolve Romo of the work needed to continue to improve, but I know I'm going to get that out of him because he's shown he's willing to put the work in, contrary to what the media says).

The thing is, you need to look at stats. Not every player on a team that doesn't win a championship is a loser. People like to make it a black-and-white issue, but the fact of the matter is there are great players on bad teams and lousy players on great teams. Not every player plays great in a win and not every player plays poorly in a loss. This is why you have stats - it helps separate the wheat from the chaff because your "wins and losses" dichotomy simply doesn't tell the whole story. Can stats also leave out parts of the story? Sure, if they are used simplistically and incorrectly, this can certainly happen. That's why it's important to look at the bigger picture. But to leave stats out of that bigger picture is like painting without the color red - it's going to severely limit you.

When you get a player like Romo where pretty much every stat available is pointing to him being a pretty good player, maybe you should at least give it some thought and consideration.

Your contention that the claim that "winning is a team game" is a simplistic comment strikes me as a bit ironic. What's funny is it's quite the opposite, and people miss this when they simplistically pin the blame or praise on one player. They miss that the whole beauty of watching a championship team is watching how that team managed to makes parts both good and bad fit together, and how they manage to minimize weaknesses while maximizing strengths in order to beat their opposition. Certain pieces help more than others, but in the end it's always about the whole not the pieces. That doesn't mean you can't appreciate the pieces. On the contrary, some of us have found it quite possible to appreciate both.

Excellent post.

 

[jobberone]

Great work DallasinDC. Only confirms what the eyeball sees and has been seeing. The only difference in Romo this year is a little less gunslinging and a lot less loss of the ball.