CFZ Where has all the offense gone this season in NFL?

Diehardblues

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If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is. If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.It’s the direction the game is trending.

The product feels bland. Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year. Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.

So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?

It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays.

But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.

Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.

The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.

The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:

This year, there are far fewer touchdowns and far fewer points scored . Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.

But somehow, there are also more blowouts and fewer underdogs barking .Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).

Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.

Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.

However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).

The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.

Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.c...red this,only 44.8% of games so far this year.

 

Whirlwin

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There are not enough good players, great players to go around. There spread out throughout the league. It’s really simple to understand.
You can no longer buy a championship.

The Patriots they kept trading there best place for first round draft pick . so they never ran out of great players. That’s the reason why they lasted so long. Brady always had talent around him.

And Kansas City. They were lucky to have the best wide receiver and running back at the same time. Never mind quarterback and coaching.
But changes in evitable any it will reverse itself again
But this is the best game in the world for me and I will enjoy that always
 

atlantacowboy

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Another factor in the lack of offensive polish are all the union rules limiting practice time. Offense is more difficult and complex than defense. It requires more practice time. It’s no surprise at all that overall the defenses come out of gate looking better. The only surprise is the dolphins offense looking historic.
 

Diehardblues

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That’s a big part of it but the rules are leaning towards the defense and OC are playing more conservative to protect their QB’s from injuries and less turnovers .

“ The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.”

“ Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.”
 

Diehardblues

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Personally I think this is a great trend as in previous decades new rules favored more offense and scoring.

Finally with new rules implemented last 2 years in favor of defense we are beginning to see the effects. Along with OC play calling closer to the vest in order to protect their QB’s from injury.
 

Diehardblues

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Another factor in the lack of offensive polish are all the union rules limiting practice time. Offense is more difficult and complex than defense. It requires more practice time. It’s no surprise at all that overall the defenses come out of gate looking better. The only surprise is the dolphins offense looking historic.
I haven’t read anything about the limited practice rules contributing to this trend but it’s entirely possible.

Look how much more conservative our play calling and offense has been. This appears to be the trend . And it’s credited to the new rules favoring the defense and OC intent on protecting health of their QB’s.
 

nate dizzle

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The biggest factor IMO is that league wide QB play is atrocious. Outside of the upper echelon of QB's, the QB play is abysmal. Some of that is due to a lot of rookies starting, some of it is a lot of backups already starting multiple games, and some of it is just a lack of high end talent league wide.
 

lopey

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If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is. If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.It’s the direction the game is trending.

The product feels bland. Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year. Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.

So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?

It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays.

But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.

Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.

The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.

The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:

This year, there are far fewer touchdowns and far fewer points scored . Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.

But somehow, there are also more blowouts and fewer underdogs barking .Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).

Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.

Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.

However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).

The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.

Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/#:~:text=We’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored this,only 44.8% of games so far this year.

I think refs are far to involved in games. To many ticky tacky penalties called. Its killing the flow of games. Let them play
 

atlantacowboy

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I haven’t read anything about the limited practice rules contributing to this trend but it’s entirely possible.

Look how much more conservative our play calling and offense has been. This appears to be the trend . And it’s credited to the new rules favoring the defense and OC intent on protecting health of their QB’s.
Yeah, keep it simple bc they don’t have time to get the timing down for more complex play calling.
New rules impacting the defenses ability to hit the QB and tangle with WRs should be a benefit to the offense not an impediment.
 

Flamma

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If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is. If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.It’s the direction the game is trending.

The product feels bland. Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year. Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.

So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?

It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays.

But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.

Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.

The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.

The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:

This year, there are far fewer touchdowns and far fewer points scored . Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.

But somehow, there are also more blowouts and fewer underdogs barking .Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).

Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.

Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.

However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).

The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.

Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/#:~:text=We’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored this,only 44.8% of games so far this year.

What we're seeing is a lot of bad or injured offensive lines. That severely limits the offense. Also the lack of good QBs. Peyton Manning, Brees, Big Ben, Brady, Rodgers, have they been replaced? Hell, throw Romo in there, he'd be a top 3 QB right now.

Herbert and the Chargers are underwhelming. Mahomes is hamstrung with weak offensive personnel. What do you expect to see?
 

Diehardblues

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What we're seeing is a lot of bad or injured offensive lines. That severely limits the offense. Also the lack of good QBs. Peyton Manning, Brees, Big Ben, Brady, Rodgers, have they been replaced? Hell, throw Romo in there, he'd be a top 3 QB right now.

Herbert and the Chargers are underwhelming. Mahomes is hamstrung with weak offensive personnel. What do you expect to see?
Could be but with 32 teams a handful of Elite QB’s don’t form a league wide trend .
 

Flamma

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Could be but with 32 teams a handful of Elite QB’s don’t form a league wide trend .
What I'm saying is, we don't have any elite QBs anymore. Not just a few. Rodgers is out, and Mahomes has a weak supporting cast. Who's left? Burrow? Watson and Wilson are playing like crap. This is why we're seeing offense down.
 

817Gill

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If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is. If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.It’s the direction the game is trending.

The product feels bland. Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year. Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.

So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?

It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays.

But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.

Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.

The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.

The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:

This year, there are far fewer touchdowns and far fewer points scored . Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.

But somehow, there are also more blowouts and fewer underdogs barking .Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).

Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.

Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.

However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).

The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.

Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/#:~:text=We’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored this,only 44.8% of games so far this year.

This isn’t unique to this year, the exact same articles came out last season.

Defensive coordinators catching up and playing 2 high shell and OC’s trying to be patient to adjust.

It’s a cyclical league, offense jumped out from 2015-2021, now it’s turning back to defenses bit.

Here’s articles from 2022:

https://www.bigblueview.com/platfor...the-mystery-of-disappearing-points-in-the-nfl

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-scoring-is-down-in-2022-what-are-the-causes-013232184.html

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-games-have-never-been-closer-heres-why/amp/

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10050581-why-is-scoring-down-in-the-nfl-in-2022.amp.html
 

Aftershock

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If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is. If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.It’s the direction the game is trending.

The product feels bland. Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year. Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.

So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?

It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays.

But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.

Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.

The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.

The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:

This year, there are far fewer touchdowns and far fewer points scored . Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.

But somehow, there are also more blowouts and fewer underdogs barking .Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).

Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.

Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.

However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).

The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.

Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/#:~:text=We’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored this,only 44.8% of games so far this year.

Defenses are getting smarter and better. Teams are not running traditional Cover 2/3 anymore. They are using hybrid man / cover schemes with matching principles.

Also, sacking technique has finally caught up with how soft RTP has gotten. Edge players know how to properly sack
 

Mac_MaloneV1

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Defenses are playing cowardly shell coverages and offenses are playing cowardly possession games.

Half the teams aren't even trying to win.

Defensive linemen are incrementally more athletic than offensive linemen.
 

thunderpimp91

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I disagree completely with the article saying that the NFL this year has been less competitive, less entertaining, and bland. This NFL season is shaping up to be an incredible one you are just seeing so many defensive superstars than you have in the past. This feels like a product of defenses adjusting to decades of favorable rules for the offense. It's truly eye opening when you just look at the number of great pass rushers that are in the league in 2023....It used to be a big deal to play a top EDGE guy in the league and how they impacted the game. Now its week after week you're playing a DLine that has a great pass rush threat, heck the Cowboys just played a team with both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and it was a secondary conversation all week because that's become the norm. Not just from the edge either but DTs are brining more pressure than ever. Backers are smaller/quicker, we see more safeties on the field, and somehow elite CBs are still a thing? The league has found out that most offenses can be slowed down with 2 deep looks and a great pass rush.

The best teams in the league right now share a common ability to run the football and stop the run. Of the nine 4 and 5 win teams only Jacksonville is getting less than 4 yards per carry on the year. Only Buffalo is in the bottom 3rd in the league in rushing defense.
 

Kellsbells

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Don’t leave out the fact that almost 1/4 of the teams are without their starting quarterbacks. And other starters (Mac Jones, Daniel Jones…) are underperforming.
 
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