If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is. If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.
No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.It’s the direction the game is trending.
The product feels bland. Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year. Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.
So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?
It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays.
But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.
Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.
The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.
The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:
This year, there are far fewer touchdowns and far fewer points scored . Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.
But somehow, there are also more blowouts and fewer underdogs barking .Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).
Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.
Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.
However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).
The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.
Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/#:~:text=We’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored this,only 44.8% of games so far this year.
