CFZ Where has all the offense gone this season in NFL?

[jazzcat22]

One word...it has been what the NFL wanted for years....

PARITY

 

[mfiggs18]

Offensive lines are not playing very well across the league that's why scoring is down in my opinion.

 

[Mikexike]

Offensive lines are not playing very well across the league that's why scoring is down in my opinion.

You hit it on the nail, OL play around the league is atrocious...not enough talent coming out of college to fill the needs.

 

[Pass2Run]

I disagree.

And, personally, I like it. I also think a lot of the rules favor the offense. You just don't see it during the plays. The benefits of those rule adjustments are assessed after the play, and the potential gain is tacked on in between plays. Drawing those kinds of penalties can sometimes even be semi-strategic, which sometimes makes it centered more around discipline and form on the defense.

I do understand what you're saying. I just disagree with your sentiment. I feel like the NFL is getting bigger than ever, and has entrenched itself within the culture, and will particularly be a profitable product, particularly in more rural areas, for the foreseeable future.

Two other things I've personally noticed that could be part of what's throwing you off of your previous perception and sentiment, there seems to be more athletic players coming out of college, and I believe overall, the RAS numbers we see show players are getting more and more athletic, per capita.

So then it becomes much more difficult to create mismatches because you have a more even, spread out, pool of players to choose from.
And then, of course, the other thing is scheme. The more successful teams do have more complex offenses, which is why I think many fans laid blame on Mccarthy after the 49ers loss, because it wasn't like McCarthy did Dak any favors.

My theory?

During the Chargers game, we finally saw McCarthy covering his mouth so you can't read his lips between plays. I think that's because he likely turned the play calling duties over to Dak, and Dak was just calling his own plays. That, or when he was talking about "families" in the offensive playbook, I gathered he may have been giving Dak a group of plays, and Dak selects A,B, or C. Not sure, but I have a feeling Dak was involved in some of his own play-calling last game.

Say what you want about Dak, he's not a dumb guy. He actually has above average intelligence, from what I can tell. He's just a genuine, authentic person, and people hate what they're not. I was a big Romo fan, but I've never seen it as a competition between the two, and I'll always appreciate Dak for the head on his shoulders, and head for the game. Maybe he's not number 1, but some games he can play like it.

That's all you can ask for. Only so many number 1s to go around, if we're making lists. I know the reality is . . . Any Given Sunday.

The NFL is going to eventually have people talking about the 11 - 16 players on defense, instead of solely about the QB. The league is more competitive than ever, as far as I can tell.

 

[Pass2Run]

See Miami

This also shows my point. Their athleticism is top notch. But they're an anomaly...

 

[Diehardblues]

What I'm saying is, we don't have any elite QBs anymore. Not just a few. Rodgers is out, and Mahomes has a weak supporting cast. Who's left? Burrow? Watson and Wilson are playing like crap. This is why we're seeing offense down.

We arguably have a few other up and coming Elite QB’s.

But this trend is about much more than this.

 

[Pass2Run]

Here's another thing to consider, but this happens to be for the reason I'm talking about. Better athletes on defense, DL, OL, means RBs aren't as important.

 

[Satchel89]

If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is. If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.It’s the direction the game is trending.

The product feels bland. Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year. Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.

So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?

It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays.

But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.

Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring.

The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.

The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:

This year, there are far fewer touchdowns and far fewer points scored . Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.

But somehow, there are also more blowouts and fewer underdogs barking .Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).

Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.

Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.

However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).

The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.

Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/#:~:text=We’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored this,only 44.8% of games so far this year.

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Totally agree...That's why I'm not watching. Used to enjoy watching football but it's boring at best

 

[Diehardblues]

Totally agree...That's why I'm not watching. Used to enjoy watching football but it's boring at best

Interesting . But you spend time on a forum discussing it?

Thanks for your response!

 

[Diehardblues]

This also shows my point. Their athleticism is top notch. But they're an anomaly...

Yea, one team bucking the trend.

 

[Roadtrip635]

OL are not as good, much less prepared for the NFL. Many of these guys have been playing in spread offenses for most of their lives, lacking well rounded fundamentals. It's compounded by the fact that there is less practice time, less full contact practice to improve those basic skills.

 

[Flamma]

Interesting . But you spend time on a forum discussing it?

Thanks for your response!

It's a legit response. Some people like a lot of offense. I knew people that liked 9-7 baseball games. But I'm old school, years ago if you had a game that was 42-38, you knew neither team was any good. I remember back in 1990 two 10-1 teams playing to a 7-3 final. Those two teams also played in the NFCCG.

 

[McKDaddy]

I'm sure there are lots of reasons but I have definitely been disappointed in the majority of games I have tried to watch this year. This will certainly turn a lot of fans off so I have no doubt the league is monitoring. They won't let their cash cow bleed. Whether the changes they make will be good or bad for the core of the sport, who knows.

 

[Diehardblues]

It's a legit response. Some people like a lot of offense. I knew people that liked 9-7 baseball games. But I'm old school, years ago if you had a game that was 42-38, you knew neither team was any good. I remember back in 1990 two 10-1 teams playing to a 7-3 final. Those two teams also played in the NFCCG.

Seems odd and somewhat hypocritical to me that someone who no longer watches the NFL being bored with it is interested in discussing how bored they are.

 

[gtb1943]

I think it was too easy for too long for the offenses due to all the rule changes hamstringing the D.
The D's have caught up in some respects but early in the season anymore you will see sloppy offenses
The restrictive practice standards and lack of contact practice hurt teams early in the year and that is what you see.
So its a combination of many things; a number of QBs not playing well; a number of D's playing better than usual
and teams just now really getting it together because of soft camps mandated by the rule changes

 

[gtb1943]

AND BY THE WAY I LIKE SEEING DEFENSES KICK BUTT

 

[Momanpr100]

Defense

 

[JustChip]

I disagree completely with the article saying that the NFL this year has been less competitive, less entertaining, and bland.

I agree. The most entertaining games are those that are in doubt to the end, be it a 51-48 Broncos-Cowboys style game, or a 5-0 Cowboys-Lions style game. The one thing that makes any game unentertaining us on with a lot of penalties. Those completely disrupt to flow of the game and interrupt the watching experience.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I love the regression back to pre-2010s scoring. The hyper ball era was stupid.

 

[shabazz]

Seen this same phenomenon in the NHL as well.

The rules committee belive that the fans want more scoring so they enact ruled that benefit the offenses of both sports but the defenses still find a way to stymie and buckwheat the offenses