Which QB has the most 4th Quarter Comebacks

[itoldyouSOE]

Post #29 of this thread is meant to leave that impression and it seems to be a repetitive theme. He had no running game. He had no OL. He had no kicker. He had no help. Woe is Drew. It's not his fault.

Broken record.

Uh, yeah he did. There are QBs in NFL History who'd kill to play for the coaches he has with the weapons he's had.

Post #29 stated: "For as good as you think the roster looks to you on paper, let's look at some facts." To me, this does not say, "Bledsoe was the only good player the Patriots had in the 90s and there were no others."

Anyway, after this lead in statement I then listed that (despite these great teammates of Bledsoe you have mentioned), the defense averaged a rank of 14th and the running game averaged rankings in the mid 20s (again, in most years out of 30 teams). Anyway you slice it, these units did an average job at best, pathetic at worst, with a few exceptions. As for individual players, was Curtis Martin great? Yes. Was Ben Coates a reception machine? Yes. Did Ty Law and Lawyer Malloy bolster the defense? No question. Did I ever say Bledsoe never had any good players around him. NO!

But again, the facts suggest that other facets of the team didn't get the job done and Bledsoe, in conjunction with some of these other great players you mentioned, often helped carry the water for other units who were slacking.

EDIT: And I have to say its killing me to see you and ABQ racking your brains trying to find good Pats o-linemen from the 1990s, all in what I can only surmise is an effort to attempt to discredit Bledsoe in any possible way you can. Fans in New England would get a good chuckle out of the two of you. A good, long, hearty chuckle.

 

[Hostile]

Post #29 stated: "For as good as you think the roster looks to you on paper, let's look at some facts." To me, this does not say, "Bledsoe was the only good player the Patriots had in the 90s and there were no others."

Anyway, after this lead in statement I then listed that (despite these great teammates of Bledsoe you have mentioned), the defense averaged a rank of 14th and the running game averaged rankings in the mid 20s (again, in most years out of 30 teams). Anyway way you slice it, these units did an average job at best, pathetic at worst, with a few exceptions. As for individual players, was Curtis Martin great? Yes. Was Ben Coates a reception machine? Yes. Did Ty Law and Lawyer Malloy bolster the defense? No question. Did I ever say Bledsoe never had any good players around him. NO!

But again, the facts suggest that other facets of the team didn't get the job done and Bledsoe, in conjunction with some of these other great players you mentioned, often helped carry the water for other units who were slacking.

Blah, blah, blah.

Heard it all before. Not sold.

 

[playit12]

Is it just me, or are the tables in that article all messed up? A 19-29 record is better than a 13-8 record?

You have to read the original article. The author decided to rank guys that consistently beat the average. In this case, guys come back 30% of the time by average. So if you take Fourth Quarter Wins - (total games played x .30) you get his games won above average. In this way the list makes sense.

At first this seems very odd. Lets look at the extremes. If a guy has one 4th quarter comback attempt and succeeds, he's the best fourth quarter comeback player ever by percentage. Of course... as far as a predictor for future success, experience would tell us that it's not very valuable. By this guys scale he actually ranks very low. Probably insignificant, indicating that we don't yet know if he is or is not a good fourth quarter QB.

On the other hand, a guy that is 30 and 30 is 50% per attempts, but that is 10 more games won than you would expect from the averages. Thus, not only is he better than an average QB at fourth quarter comebacks, he's done it enough times to suggest that he will also be better in the future.

I'm not saying it's perfect... But that is the intention of the numbers.

*** edited for typos... it's late ***

 

[itoldyouSOE]

Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Quarterback Wins Losses
1 Jake Plummer 19 28
2 Peyton Manning 19 29
2 Vinny Testaverde 19 29
4 Tom Brady 13 8
5 Jon Kitna 15 23
6 Kerry Collins 17 30
7 Donovan McNabb 12 15
8 Marc Bulger 10 5
9 Jake Delhomme 10 12
9 Jay Fiedler 10 12

A very comprehensive breakdown:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=3978&cat=0

I've seen this article before. Fascinating and glad someone is looking into it. But it is filled with asteriks.

Drew Bledsoe has had 24 game-winning drives in the 4th Q/OT since 1996, not 19 as this article suggests. (See end of message for links that prove this).

This alone leads me to question the validity of the analysis, one in which the author himself warns about how he used t-tests and ANOVAs.

There are several other problems with this article as well:

1) Related to the above, this article wrongly does not consider a QB to have led a team on a game-winning drive if his team was tied entering the 4th quarter. It also does not give credit to a QB if his team was winning entering the 4th Q, then gave up some points to allow the game to be tied, but then drove his team to score points to win the game. The problem with this analysis is if the QB whose team was down to start the 4th drove his team to victory then this QB would have been credited for a game-winner but the QB whose defense allows an opposing team to tie the score but then leads a game-winning drive is given NO CREDIT by the author. This is wrong. Maybe this is why he only credits Bledsoe for 19 game-winners when in fact he has 24 since ’96. CBS and Fox used trailing entering the 4th, as well as a tie score entering the 4th, when crediting Bledsoe for his 32 game-winners on several braodcasts this past season.

2) While this article rightly compares the number of game winning drives to the number of times a QB had such an opportunity, it fails to give any weight to the quality of teams a QB has played on. For example, there is no comparing the team Montana had in the 1980s to the team Bledsoe had this year yet Drew still managed to lead five 4th Q/OT game winners. (Before some of you get worked up, Joe Montana is the best QB in history, better than Bledsoe.)

3) It also punishes QBs for trailing by a large margin in the 4th, getting the score close, but still losing. For example, on 11/2/97 the Pats played the Vikings and were down 16-3 (13 points) to start the 4th. The author uses an 8 point deficit in his study as a cap, so any deficit of 9 or more points is not used in his analysis. Therefore, with this 13 point deficit, the author does not consider this to be a winnable game and would not include it in his study. But alas, Bledsoe heroically leads the Pats to 15 4th Q points, bringing the game on several occasions to less than an 8 point deficit for the Pats. By directing his team to this amount of points during the 4th, suddenly the author now considers this a winnable game for Bledsoe. In the end, the Pats’ D gave up a late 28 yard TD that lost the Pats the game. If Bledsoe led his team to no points in the 4th, the author would not have used this against Drew. But since Bledsoe was successful in scoring 15 points in the 4th (enough at the beginning of the quarter to win the game), the author now punishes Bledsoe for not winning the game when in truth he is the one who made it close. This is unfair.

I’m glad someone is looking at comebacks. With all the chances Bledsoe (and others) have had, it really shows the quality (or lack thereof) of teams that many QBs have had to endure, and I think leading a game winning drive is a significant accomplishment. This article, while fascinating and detailed in some areas, leaves a lot to be desired and cannot and should not be considered a thorough analysis of 4th Q game-winning drives when so much is left unanalyzed.

And now for the games in Bledsoe’s career in which he’s led game winning drives:

1993 - Mia, Cle (2)
1994 - GB, Min, Ind (3)
1995 - Cle, NYJ, Buf (3)
1996 - Jax, Buf, NYJ, NYG (4)
1997 - NYJ (1)
1998 - Ten, NO, Mia, Buf (4)
1999 - NYJ, Ind (2)
2000 - Buf, Ind, Cin (3)
2002 - Min, Chi, Hou, SD (4)
2003 - Cin (1)
2005 - SD, SF, NYG, KC, CAR (5)

http://nflhistory.net/linescores/index.asp (93-99)
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/results.nsf (00-05)

 

[KingTuna]

I was reminded of this a few months back when SportsCenter ran a special on SuperBowl chokes, and one of those profiled was Max Lane, who was absoltuely man-handled in the second half by Reggie White.

Ahh yeah, that was a HORROR show for Max Lane. Reggie White took him to school in that superbowl and unfortunatley opened the flood gates to sack Bledsoe.

Max Lane! UUGGGHHHH

 

[rcaldw]

Does the definition of "pretty damn good" or "pretty good" = ZERO combined Pro Bowls, 'cause that's exactly what the two linemen you mentioned have between them.

Of all the guys that have protected Bledsoe in NE, we have come up with ONE pro bowler (Armstrong) and two average, maybe pretty good, guys in Woody who started as a ROOKIE in '99 (see Pettiti) protecting Bledsoe and Andruzzi (00) who protected Bledsoe for 15 games in his career. Generally, linemen aren't all-world in their first year or two in the league. Woody and Andruzzi were young-uns when Bledsoe was in NE. They had their moments, and Woody ended up commanding a decent salary from the Lions. But over the course of 8 years and 128 games, this is the o-line you're giving me?

How many Pro Bowls did the Cowboys offensive linemen, who played in the 90's have before Irvin, Aikman and Smith showed up?

I loved that offensive line, but it also got some hype due to the original triplets. Don't misunderstand, they were outstanding, but Aikman has a scarred up chin for a reason.

 

[itoldyouSOE]

Ahh yeah, that was a HORROR show for Max Lane. Reggie White took him to school in that superbowl and unfortunatley opened the flood gates to sack Bledsoe.

Max Lane! UUGGGHHHH

Yes, it was painful for me to write. "Porus" is how NFL films described the Patriots o-line that year in the SB36 recap. In deed it was, despite what some on here would lead you to believe.

 

[rcaldw]

Yes, it was painful for me to write. "Porus" is how NFL films described the Patriots o-line that year in the SB36 recap. In deed it was, despite what some on here would lead you to believe.

The Patriots OL was terrible, the Bills OL was terrible, the Cowboys OL was terrible. Do you ever think that Bledsoe gets sacked a ton because he is immobile and holds the ball too long?

 

[itoldyouSOE]

The Patriots OL was terrible, the Bills OL was terrible, the Cowboys OL was terrible. Do you ever think that Bledsoe gets sacked a ton because he is immobile and holds the ball too long?

Well Pats fans and media knew so in the 90s, Bills fans knew so in 2002 (and still do!), and we do now, which is why we signed a couple guys in the offseason (and NOT a new QB!). Are you making the argument that these lines were anything more than average or even terrible at times. You won't find one Bills' fan who has been happy with their o-line for the better part of this decade. Along with Houston, it ranks as one of the WORST in the NFL!

Is Bledsoe immobile? Yes, but not as slow as you might think. Is he a pure pocket passer who tries to hang in there waiting for a receiver to get open and take a sack as a result? Sometimes. But as we saw this year (especially that game v. NYG where he was sacked even before he touched the ball), the o-line is one of our weakest areas, the Bills' o-line was weak and still is, and the Pats o-line was known for its holes in the 90s. So no, I'm not willing to say that the o-lines were good and that Bledsoe just made them look bad. Look at how well he performed with an average AT BEST o-line this season before Flo went down. He was a world-beater! With an average o-line!

Does Bledsoe have fault in some of this? Sure. But terrible o-lines get most of it. (The fact that our running game struggled this year was also due in part to our injured, old, and yet inexperienced o-line)

 

[rcaldw]

Well Pats fans and media knew so in the 90s, Bills fans knew so in 2002 (and still do!), and we do now, which is why we signed a couple guys in the offseason (and NOT a new QB!). Are you making the argument that these lines were anything more than average or even terrible at times. You won't find one Bills' fan who has been happy with their o-line for the better part of this decade. Along with Houston, it ranks as one of the WORST in the NFL!

Is Bledsoe immobile? Yes, but not as slow as you might think. Is he a pure pocket passer who tries to hang in there waiting for a receiver to get open and take a sack as a result? Sometimes. But as we saw this year (especially that game v. NYG where he was sacked even before he touched the ball), the o-line is one of our weakest areas, the Bills' o-line was weak and still is, and the Pats o-line was known for its holes in the 90s. So no, I'm not willing to say that the o-lines were good and that Bledsoe just made them look bad. Look at how well he performed with an average AT BEST o-line this season before Flo went down. He was a world-beater! With an average o-line!

Does Bledsoe have fault in some of this? Sure. But terrible o-lines get most of it. (The fact that our running game struggled this year was also due in part to our injured, old, and yet inexperienced o-line)

Well, the one year that you note, the Patriots went to the Super Bowl, must not have been too bad.

 

[BlueWave]

SUPER BOWL WINS: BRADY (3) - BLEDSOE (0)

I can't stand Tom Brady, but I get weary of people not getting the fact that Football isn't baseball, and the only stat that matters in the end is WINNING.

Were they the only two men on the field. This isn't tennis. Does that mean Marino was no good. Fouts was not a good QB.

 

[BlueWave]

To quote a phrase so often uttered by you: Uh, no, I never said that.

Never said Bledsoe did not have talented teammates so I'm not sure why you're saying I did. To be sure, the ones you list, among others, were key reasons for the Pats success, and a reason Bledsoe was able to lead the Pats to the playoffs in 4 of 8 seasons. Over nearly a decade, a player is bound to play with some other equally great players, so I'm not quite sure what your point is here. But anyway ...

Of all the things you focus on in my original post (I think I had 5 points, you focused on Bruce Armstrong), you still cannot refute the stats. The stats prove that, despite all these great players the Pats had that you are so enamoured with and 2 hall of fame coaches, the running games and defenses were nothing more than average to near worst in the league in Bledsoe's 8 seasons in NE.

So yeah, the stats back me up, Bledsoe has played on some bad, bad teams during his career with some horrible o-lines, save for Bruce Armstrong of course. He played with some good to great players and was the reason that many of these players (Glenn, Coates, Peerless Price, Eric Moulds) had great or career seasons with him.

This guy amazes me. One of the best posters on the board.

 

[Hostile]

This guy amazes me. One of the best posters on the board.

I hope that was sarcasm.

 

[rcaldw]

Were they the only two men on the field. This isn't tennis. Does that mean Marino was no good. Fouts was not a good QB.

You completely missed the point of my post. The goal of the QB of a football team is to move the offense, move the ball down the field and put it into the endzone, WITHOUT turning the ball over and taking unnecessary sacks. It also means being willing to place your personal statistics aside and if the best thing for the football team is running the ball, then hand it off gladly. This helps win games too, by eating up the clock and making the other team maximize their offensive possessions.

In the end WINNING is the goal, not how many yards you threw for, not how many TD passes you got, not how many records you hold. WINNING is the measure of QB's.

It isn't a 1 man team, or a 1 man game, which is why the QB position can't be measured merely by numbers.

Do I think Marino or Fouts were not good QB's? Of course not. But I would take Aikman before either of them. I know that sounds like blasphemy to some, so be it, but I personally think that Marino (I can't speak as much to Fouts) was a selfish player who WANTED a throw, throw, throw offense. He wanted his numbers. He got his numbers. But he got no Super Bowl wins either.

Aikman, just this week or last, was interviewed about the hall of fame, and he said it better than I can. He said EVERYONE says they just want to win (talking about QB's), but 99% of them mean, "as long as I can also get my numbers."

He said he knows he could have put up numbers with any of them, but he wanted to win more and saw that as his only goal, which is why he never complained publicly or privately for more throwing attempts.

Baseball is a stats sport, because other than being willing to lay down a bunt, or move a runner along by hitting behind him, it is just YOU AND THE PITCHER. (I'm obviously looking at it from a hitter's perspective) The numbers tell you all you need to know IN MOST CASES about the player's performance.

But football is different. THAT was my point. I think Brady has done a better job than Bledsoe of maximizing his offense without throwing it to the other team or taking drive killing sacks, which is a big part of why he has 3 Super Bowl rings. THAT AND A GREAT KICKER

 

[itoldyouSOE]

I hope that was sarcasm.

Imagine that. Someone who disagrees with you getting props from a respected poster.

I use evidence to back up my claims. I'm not talking out my rear like some people who love to hear themselves type, and tell others they have an agenda and feign that they themselves do not.

 

[JMead]

Imagine that. Someone who disagrees with you getting props from a respected poster.

I use evidence to back up my claims. I'm not talking out my rear like some people who love to hear themselves type, and tell others they have an agenda and feign that they themselves do not.

Watch out now. Hate to see another poster with common sense disappear for being over zealous.... Errr I mean using facts.

 

[Hostile]

Imagine that. Someone who disagrees with you getting props from a respected poster.

I use evidence to back up my claims. I'm not talking out my rear like some people who love to hear themselves type, and tell others they have an agenda and feign that they themselves do not.

His taste must all be in his mouth.

Either that or he didn't bother to read the whole "name one OL who played with Bledsoe that you'd take on your team" thing.

I'm not even a Patriots fan and I knew about Armstrong.

But by all means, pat yourself on the back. It's a hell of a compliment.

 

[Hostile]

Watch out now. Hate to see another poster with common sense disappear for being over zealous.... Errr I mean using facts.

You might want to know what you're talking about before you open your festering gob. Free advice.

 

[JMead]

You might want to know what you're talking about before you open your festering gob. Free advice.

Insulting now are we? Grow up.

 

[5Stars]

Insulting now are we? Grow up.

This is getting really old now!

Bledsoe is a good QB! Isn't that enough for you? Why do you guys come here trying to cram him down everones throat?

This is a DALLAS COWBOY FORUM! This is not a DREW BLEDSOE FORUM!

If you are insulted by a message board, then maybe you need to "grow up"?