Why are fans so afraid of taking a RB early?

jterrell

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The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.
Seperately, the Eagles drafting Bijan at 10 would be insane.
They are in a cap battle and cannot afford to pay RB that type of coin.
4-7M per season just locked in that they can't even restructure away.
Last year's 10th pick is locked in at 4.67M cap hit this year.

They just paid Hurts %5M AAV because he is their best RB and QB.
Use R1 to ensure he gets less carries and makes less throws??
 

Jumbo075

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Give me the 6 names if you don't mind. I can think of two, Davis and Smith.
Emmitt Smith (NFL MVP)
Walter Payton (NFL MVP)
Frank Gore - lost SB
Barry Sanders - no SB (NFL MVP)
Adrian Peterson - no SB (NFL MVP)
Curtis Martin - lost SB
LaDanian Tomlinson - no SB (NFL MVP)
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson - no SB
Tony Dorsett
Jim Brown - NFL Championship (4x NFL MVP)
Marshall Faulk (NFL MVP)
 

Sydla

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I want the best team I can possibly field next season and Gibbs or Robinson provide that. Do I think that puts us to another level? Maybe? Maybe not. I don't think anyone at that spot will. I'm not even sure if our pick at 26 will even be a starter.

Seumalo - 3rd rounder
Dickerson - 2nd rounder
Dillard - 1st rounder
Mailata - 7th rounder

This is EXACTLY what I'm saying we should do. Invest in linemen in other rounders. Eagles are doing it and finding guys all over the draft. And their worst one ironically was the 1st rounder lol.

Had Howie followed my plan he would've had Josh Jacobs instead of Dillard....but aye....I talk about how he does in the 1st round but damn he knows how to find linemen that's for sure.
Lane Johnson was a Top 5 pick. They stand a good chance of taking Skoronski if he's there at 10 if you believe the rumors (and Carter or Van Ness isn't there).

And great, they have Josh Jacobs instead of Dillard. Their results don't change on the field in doing that. You keep ignoring that fact. RBs, especially first rounders, are one of the least impactful positions on the field.
 

Sydla

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Emmitt Smith (NFL MVP)
Walter Payton (NFL MVP)
Frank Gore - lost SB
Barry Sanders - no SB (NFL MVP)
Adrian Peterson - no SB (NFL MVP)
Curtis Martin - lost SB
LaDanian Tomlinson - no SB (NFL MVP)
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson - no SB
Tony Dorsett
Jim Brown - NFL Championship (4x NFL MVP)
Marshall Faulk (NFL MVP)
Problem is the guys who won SBs on your list played decades ago.

And some weren't even first round picks (like Gore).

In other words, your list doesn't prove that you need a bell cow, top level TB to win a SB.
 

Flamma

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Emmitt Smith (NFL MVP)
Walter Payton (NFL MVP)
Frank Gore - lost SB
Barry Sanders - no SB (NFL MVP)
Adrian Peterson - no SB (NFL MVP)
Curtis Martin - lost SB
LaDanian Tomlinson - no SB (NFL MVP)
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson - no SB
Tony Dorsett
Jim Brown - NFL Championship (4x NFL MVP)
Marshall Faulk (NFL MVP)
My point is, I think only Terrell Davis and Emmitt Smith can you actually say were a huge part in the team getting to and winning a SB. The rest I believe played a role, just a smaller one. When people bring up the '85 Bears, no one's thinking Walter Peyton.

I can't speak for Jim Brown as I don't go back further than the mid 70s.
 

rnr_honeybadger

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The NFL game has changed and RB's are really no longer deemed a premier position. TE's on the other hand have evolved to become real weapons in the passing game. Notice that almost no one uses a FB anymore.
 

ICP

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I would say go OG or TE (depending on who is there) in the first but if Bijan is there I don't see how you pass on him. But I don't think that will be an issue.
 

JW82

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This is why you take one in the 1st round...get him for 5 to 6 years...no 2nd contract involved.
The new mindset is you need to get 10 years out of your first round pick and RBs rarely last that long. Also, the numbers show that rb’s taken in the later rounds, are just as productive. With that said, if I thought I could get a star talent for 5-6 years, its worth a pick in the 20’s IMO
 

Whyjerry

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The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.
Zeke Elliot and his career arc is scary. Such hope when they got him but it ended up being a wasted career. 27 years old and washed up. RBs in general don’t last. That’s why.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Zeke Elliot and his career arc is scary. Such hope when they got him but it ended up being a wasted career. 27 years old and washed up. RBs in general don’t last. That’s why.
Well they aren't going to last if you give them 800 carries that's for sure. How about not run them into the ground? You see how Derrick Henry is still out here...he started in a tandem with Murray.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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The new mindset is you need to get 10 years out of your first round pick and RBs rarely last that long. Also, the numbers show that rb’s taken in the later rounds, are just as productive. With that said, if I thought I could get a star talent for 5-6 years, its worth a pick in the 20’s IMO
Yeah that's the mindset but I don't think people are being realistic of how many of those years will be prime years. I believe out of a running back I will get 4 or 5 prime years out of him on his rookie deal. For example I got Byron Jones and he was a success as was Randy Gregory...probably got 1 or 2 of their prime years....Anthony Hitfchens as well. I think everyone thinks ok 1st round pick its gonna have a Micah Parsons impact. Come out the gate and will be dominate. Just not seeing it.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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The NFL game has changed and RB's are really no longer deemed a premier position. TE's on the other hand have evolved to become real weapons in the passing game. Notice that almost no one uses a FB anymore.
They don't but in the SB I saw the Chiefs rely on their run game...granted it was a 7th round rookie but RB's still matter.
 

CowboyRoy

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I can say the same about guard. The best guards in this league are 2nd and 3rd round picks. Not 1st rounders.
Ok, but what is the history of first round guards? And what is the history of tackles taken in the first round switched to guard? I would look more at that.

Backs taken in the first dont have a great success rate. Problem with the RB position is that its sooo reliant on the Oline and the offense and the competition. These first round backs from these big schools have all the advantages. They look better than they are and the smaller school backs never look as good.
 

Whyjerry

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Well they aren't going to last if you give them 800 carries that's for sure. How about not run them into the ground? You see how Derrick Henry is still out here...he started in a tandem with Murray.
Come on man Zeke was his own worst enemy. TE, G and DT are bigger needs. Bigsby as a 3rd rounder is a no brainer.
 
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