Why are fans so afraid of taking a RB early?

[blueblood70]

There's also the possibility of ending up with a Taco Charlton in the 1st round.....we're talking about the 26th pick in the draft.....

how so?? that's risk anywhere in the 1st you are telling me that chase young's not a bigger disappointment given where he was taken over taco?? you can GET value anywhere 7 rounds have a future stars somewhere and might be overlooked and taken late , some end up UDFAs and end up in the HOF. drafts are always like that.. nolan can be the next chase or the next parson's. 26 isn't the issue..277 player will be drfated could get gem like Purdy, warner, romo, Brady late or for nothing or can get Bust early.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

how so?? that's risk anywhere in the 1st you are telling me that chase young's not a bigger disappointment given where he was taken over taco?? you can GET value anywhere 7 rounds have a future stars somewhere and might be overlooked and taken late , some end up UDFAs and end up in the HOF. drafts are always like that.. nolan can be the next chase or the next parson's. 26 isn't the issue..277 player will be drfated could get gem like Purdy, warner, romo, Brady late or for nothing or can get Bust early.

I don't disagree with you but I'm failing to understand your point here?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Not saying we won’t draft busts but from everything I heard the Jones’s were ignoring scouts and going with whatever Rod Marinelli told them.

Generally coaches suck at evaluating talent out of college.

I've heard that Maranelli is getting too much credit for Taco.....that Jerry and Will both co-signed on him....MAranelli gets too much blame for that. Can't force a guy on Jerry lol.

 

[blueblood70]

I don't disagree with you but I'm failing to understand your point here?

im saying a RB or any position they choose could be boom or bust. If we stay on topic, no guarantee gibbs or Robinson is sure thing. Sure on paper they look the part but weve seen few players fail to meet pre-draft expectations.

 

[CATCH17]

I've heard that Maranelli is getting too much credit for Taco.....that Jerry and Will both co-signed on him....MAranelli gets too much blame for that. Can't force a guy on Jerry lol.

I’m sure when they come out publicly they collectively take blame.

Just something I’ve heard Broaddus say happened with Hill and Taco.

 

[jazzcat22]

Green Bay O linemen get away with more holds then any other team. Hard to transplant that so no McCarthy is not some kind of OL whisperer

When and if Rodgers goes to the Jets. It will be interesting to see how this changes, if it does.
Jets may get away with those holding calls, and GB may not. However the NFL FO loves them some GB, so that will probably contnue in their favor.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Problem is the Cowboys can't make first round picks that don't "hurt". They are pretty clear they expect (and that's obvious given their inaction in adding quality FAs typically) that their first round picks have to be immediate impact guys. So I can't say, it's OK to take a TB in the first round because he won't "hurt" us.

It's easy to overcome a dumb first round pick when you have Mahomes to cover up shortcomings. We don't have that luxury. So we can't use the Chiefs as a blueprint and say, hey, its OK if we take a TB and he doesn't help.

We did the use a first round pick on a TB thing. It didn't work out overall for team success. He didn't change the direction of the franchise. No need to repeat that mistake. Use your prime picks to fill the more valuable positions, backfill the TB.

Taking Bijan or Gibbs would hurt you? CEH? I get it. I don't think either guy will bust. If I felt there was a chance they'd bust maybe I'd feel similar.

And its not just Mahomes. Its the Eagles.....its the Rams....Rams haven't had a 1st round pick since they traded up for Jared Goff in 2016....then they even eventually trade him away lol. So the Rams didn't have there luxury of MAhomes and they've literally wasted and thrown away their first rounders and it did not hurt them.

Eagles. Same story. Traded multiple 1st rounders and 2nd rounders for Wentz....nevermind they won a championship with him but let's forget that year. He's a bust and they have to trade him away eventually...didnt' hurt them. Mind you they also wasted a 1st rounder on Reagor...wasted 1st rounder after 1st rounder...

So no...Chiefs aren't the only team that have the luxury of using a 1st rounder on a RB and it not working.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I’m sure when they come out publicly they collectively take blame.

Just something I’ve heard Broaddus say happened with Hill and Taco.

On Hill for sure I heard Broaddus speak on that. I thought I heard Broaddus say Maranelli wasn't the only guy that wanted Taco and Jerry saw him as a "war daddy".

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

im saying a RB or any position they choose could be boom or bust. If we stay on topic, no guarantee gibbs or Robinson is sure thing. Sure on paper they look the part but weve seen few players fail to meet pre-draft expectations.

Not at all. But if we're playing a numbers game....I like the idea of them succeeding then I do anyone else projected to go around 26. Gotta be greater than 50% they won't bust.

 

[Sydla]

Taking Bijan or Gibbs would hurt you? CEH? I get it. I don't think either guy will bust. If I felt there was a chance they'd bust maybe I'd feel similar.

And its not just Mahomes. Its the Eagles.....its the Rams....Rams haven't had a 1st round pick since they traded up for Jared Goff in 2016....then they even eventually trade him away lol. So the Rams didn't have there luxury of MAhomes and they've literally wasted and thrown away their first rounders and it did not hurt them.

Eagles. Same story. Traded multiple 1st rounders and 2nd rounders for Wentz....nevermind they won a championship with him but let's forget that year. He's a bust and they have to trade him away eventually...didnt' hurt them. Mind you they also wasted a 1st rounder on Reagor...wasted 1st rounder after 1st rounder...

So no...Chiefs aren't the only team that have the luxury of using a 1st rounder on a RB and it not working.

Why the focus on hurt? I don't think either Gibbs or Robinson would set the franchise back. But I don't think either somehow puts the team on another level that they aren't currently at. Again, we took Elliott using the same logic. And in his time here, even when he played great, the team was no better than the 2014 team that was led by a 3rd round pick.

Because at the end of the day, regardless of who the TB was, there were other issues that caused us to lose. Whether it was issues along the OL. Or the DL got beat up. Or the secondary got picked apart. TBs have limited value and don't have as much of an effect on the direction of a franchise as other positions. Elliott proved this. Great player for a few years, team didn't suddenly jump into another level.

What about the Eagles? They built two really good runs games in their SB year in 2017 and last year and did so without investing in a first round TB. Instead they invested and built a great OL, backfilled the RB position with mostly FAs, trades and mid round picks. Philly isn't proof of what you are espousing here. It's more in line with what I am saying.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

None of them would've though lol. A rookie late 1st rounder was not going to be the difference in a SB unless it was a RB.

Mind you hindsight is very funny because I remember when they drafted CEH and everyone said he was the steal of the draft and put Chiefs in the SB.

some people are in love with RBs. I am not one of those. do I mean never ever to take a RB in the first round? no, that's not my point. but depending on the team, there is often no need to use a first round pick on a RB.

and how do you know those players wouldn't be the difference in a 3 point game?

 

[CATCH17]

On Hill for sure I heard Broaddus speak on that. I thought I heard Broaddus say Maranelli wasn't the only guy that wanted Taco and Jerry saw him as a "war daddy".

I get what they saw but to me it just screamed we chose the guy who was a scheme fit.

That’s what makes Quinn so awesome. He makes players fit his scheme.

 

[Flamma]

f the top 12 running backs in NFL history, 6 were instrumental in helping their teams win Super Bowls; 2 more played in Super Bowls; only 4 never played in a Super Bowl.

Give me the 6 names if you don't mind. I can think of two, Davis and Smith.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

some people are in love with RBs. I am not one of those. do I mean never ever to take a RB in the first round? no, that's not my point. but depending on the team, there is often no need to use a first round pick on a RB.

and how do you know those players wouldn't be the difference in a 3 point game?

Just based on watching the game....I mean the Chiefs won because Hurts fumbled the football. So I guess maybe it could've happened. But I just don't see it.

 

[Sydla]

Of the top 12 running backs in NFL history, 6 were instrumental in helping their teams win Super Bowls; 2 more played in Super Bowls; only 4 never played in a Super Bowl.

Of the top 12 pass rushers in NFL history, only 5 were instrumental in leading their teams to Super Bowl wins; 3 more played in Super Bowls, and 4 never played in a Super Bowl.

Of the top 12 running backs, 10 were 1st round picks. Of those 10, only Emmitt Smith was not a top 10 pick. 2 others were 3rd round picks, both of whom reached the Super Bowl, but didn’t win.

Saying that top running backs are not important to winning Super Bowls makes about as much sense as saying you shouldn’t spend a 1st round pick on a pass rusher. It is completely ahistorical nonsense.

What doesn't make sense is trying to compare the NFL today to SBs won decades ago.

So no, Walter Peyton winning a SB with the 1985 Bears isn't really applicable to today's NFL. Emmitt Smith winning 3 SBs in the early 90s, isn't really applicable to today.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I get what they saw but to me it just screamed we chose the guy who was a scheme fit.

That’s what makes Quinn so awesome. He makes players fit his scheme.

I mean I'm not gonna lie what they did in the 3rd round a few years ago scream they were trying to make guys fit a scheme. Joseph and Wright for sure.

 

[CATCH17]

I mean I'm not gonna lie what they did in the 3rd round a few years ago scream they were trying to make guys fit a scheme. Joseph and Wright for sure.

By all accounts Joseph was a legit prospect just a knucklehead.

His college film was really good.

Getting kicked out of LSU of all places should’ve been our sign to stay away though.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Why the focus on hurt? I don't think either Gibbs or Robinson would set the franchise back. But I don't think either somehow puts the team on another level that they aren't currently at. Again, we took Elliott using the same logic. And in his time here, even when he played great, the team was no better than the 2014 team that was led by a 3rd round pick.

Because at the end of the day, regardless of who the TB was, there were other issues that caused us to lose. Whether it was issues along the OL. Or the DL got beat up. Or the secondary got picked apart. TBs have limited value and don't have as much of an effect on the direction of a franchise as other positions. Elliott proved this. Great player for a few years, team didn't suddenly jump into another level.

What about the Eagles? They built two really good runs games in their SB year in 2017 and last year and did so without investing in a first round TB. Instead they invested and built a great OL, backfilled the RB position with mostly FAs, trades and mid round picks. Philly isn't proof of what you are espousing here. It's more in line with what I am saying.

I want the best team I can possibly field next season and Gibbs or Robinson provide that. Do I think that puts us to another level? Maybe? Maybe not. I don't think anyone at that spot will. I'm not even sure if our pick at 26 will even be a starter.

Seumalo - 3rd rounder
Dickerson - 2nd rounder
Dillard - 1st rounder
Mailata - 7th rounder

This is EXACTLY what I'm saying we should do. Invest in linemen in other rounders. Eagles are doing it and finding guys all over the draft. And their worst one ironically was the 1st rounder lol.

Had Howie followed my plan he would've had Josh Jacobs instead of Dillard....but aye....I talk about how he does in the 1st round but damn he knows how to find linemen that's for sure.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

By all accounts Joseph was a legit prospect just a knucklehead.

His college film was really good.

Getting kicked out of LSU of all places should’ve been our sign to stay away though.

Yeah but Joseph didn't just become a knucklehead. He was so much of knucklehead he got kicked out of LSU somehow and they love knuckleheads.

I'll never question his measurable. They are impressive. But not in the second. They weren't good enough to ignore the red flags.

 

[jterrell]

The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.

Because it has proven to be very bad business.

No RB has been drafted higher than 24 in the last 4 drafts.
So basically, all the rookie year guys are pick 24 or lower.

The last RBs to be taken in the top 23 are:
2018: Barkley.
2017: Fournette
2017: McCaffrey
2016: Zeke

As of today 1 of those players in on his original team: Barkley.
And he is holding out for a long-term massive deal even though his career has been injury plagued and vastly underwhelming.

As Zeke and now Barkley have shown players do not have to just quietly go along with playing out a rookie deal and getting 1 franchise year.

So I think the NFL has defined pick 24 as the cut off.
And maybe were I a team at 23 or even 22 I'd consider it if all things forced BPA to me at RB.
But I'd REFUSE to select any RB at 20 or higher.

Also consider that Barkley and Zeke were never cheap.
You draft guys that high and you pay them by slot not position.
Barkley has made 38M in 5 NFL season. He'll touch 50M if he plays this year on the tag. For that NYG have basically gotten HALF of Zeke's career rushing total.