Why are fans so afraid of taking a RB early?

[TheMarathonContinues]

He's not an "all-around back" due to his weakness at pass protection. He hasn't proven that he can be an ever-down back either. He's coming off an injury as well. We need a runningback that is more of a bruiser/pass-blocking type that is also explosive due to his youth coming out of the draft. This type of back can be had in the third or fourth rounds. They just need to be serviceable as part of a committee.

If we get the offensive lineman we need, then Tony Pollard, Ronald Jones, and said draft pick should be able to move the ball on the ground at will. I'm hoping that Pollard isn't set back this season by his injury. With Smith being prone to injury as well, that day-one starter at offensive linemen is necessary.

I knew Pollard has never been a lead back but I had no idea at Memphis he played with Henderson, Gainwell AND Gibson. I knew Gibson was there. Also crazy that 3 of the 4 are in the NFC East.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

They are paying him franchise tag money. he better be an all around back. Agree 100% on OL at 26.

Not 1st round need. Their Scouts surely have other RBs on radar for later rounds.

They plan was to sign him to a franchise and agree to a long term deal. I'd imagine if they thought he was a all around back they wouldn't be looking at backs early or they would've signed him to a long term deal by now.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

because it is 10x easy to get rb production later in the draft or even udfa or cheap vet free agent rb

u are just so much better off taking ol over rb

Then what happened to the "get the bpa" draft strategy?

I've heard more than one draft expert (if there is such a thing) call Robinson the "bpa" in not just the running back class, but the entire draft. So he'd be your obvious choice as Dallas' first choice, right?

Not really disputing your second comment, just noting that the "you don't this, or you don't that, or you never should, etc." statements aren't always true, were that drafting isn't that simple.

My own view is that you shouldn't always take the bpa or always draft for need, nearly all the time it should be a combination of the two. Sometimes it works out the player selected meets both criteria, i.e. Tony Dorsett.

But that's rarely the case....

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Then what happened to the "get the bpa" draft strategy?

I've heard more than one draft expert (if there is such a thing) call Robinson the "bpa" in not just the running back class, but the entire draft. So he'd be your obvious choice as Dallas' first choice, right?

Not really disputing your second comment, just noting that the "you don't this, or you don't that, or you never should, etc." statements aren't always true, were that drafting isn't that simple.

My own view is that you shouldn't always take the bpa or always draft for need, nearly all the time it should be a combination of the two. Sometimes it works out the player selected meets both criteria, i.e. Tony Dorsett.

But that's rarely the case....

I think a issue I'm having is......what linemen is going to be there at 26? I'd love to take a linemen instead of a RB.....but seems like I'm seeing a lot of 2nd round projected guards available there. I can wait and get those guys.

 

[shabazz]

If we were lucky enough to get the next Christian McCafree, I’d be all in.

quality player and quality work ethic…….no load management for that cat needed

 

[nightrain]

They plan was to sign him to a franchise and agree to a long term deal. I'd imagine if they thought he was a all around back they wouldn't be looking at backs early or they would've signed him to a long term deal by now.

They shouldn't be looking at any RB on the 1st day after committing to pay a guy north of $10M for the season. The bigger question is, what do Pollard and his Agent think about his value as an "all around RB"? Paying a RB $10M and not considering him an all around back is not a prudent personnel move.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Once again, you're using EXTREMES. The chances of arookie coming in doing what Micah did is slim. The Commanders are STILL waiting for Chase Young to have the impact Micah has had. You guys have the 10th pick in the draft. You are aware that pick has a 50% chance to bust? And has a 90% chance of not being what Micah is/was his rookie year? Micah is not the bar. He's the miracle you wish for and you never get. You think if you go corner they will do what Sauce Gardner did? Its funny...I heard about a lot of Micah clones last draft...haven't heard nothing from them since.

The exact same argument can be made for RB. Saquon has been injured. Fournette was a bust(for the jags), Trent Richardson was a bust. Gurley retired mid 20’s due to injury. Bijan becoming AP is an extreme. He’s overwhelming likely not to be that, as the others people promised would be… werent.

JJ Watt won D MVP on his rookie deal. Nick Bosa was DMVP on his rookie deal. TJ Watt won DMVP on his rookie deal. Aaron Donald won his first DMVP on his rookie deal. Khalil Mack won DMVP on his rookie deal. None of these guys were in their prime so not as valuable as the RBs?

But let’s separate this plethora of extremes. Let’s say you only get a good RB with that top 10 Pick. How is that not a huge mistake? Because not only is he not a 1500 yard guy, but he’ll still going to run dry and out of his prime in 5-6 years, as you say. Conversely, Brandon Graham was 10th overall and is going into year 14 after putting up 11 sacks. That’s a non-superstar DE. Jerry Hughes going into year 14 for the Texans, same draft, no all pro selections.

If you compare the top end guys to the top end RBs, the results are much better for DEs. If you compare the second tier guys, it gets worse, if you go all the way to the middling guys like Derek Barnett or Solomon Thomas, these guys are still contributors and part time starters. A middling RB is out of the NFL before his rookie deal is over.

The only way this even looks good from the RB’s perspective is when you compare a once ever guy like AP to just a good DE like Graham. If anyone really hits on a Dlineman after Bijan was taken, which happens every year between 10-30, then it was not the best value to take the RB.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I think a issue I'm having is......what linemen is going to be there at 26? I'd love to take a linemen instead of a RB.....but seems like I'm seeing a lot of 2nd round projected guards available there. I can wait and get those guys.

I can see your view, and it makes sense.

For what it's worth, my go-to source for pre-draft ratings is Walter Football, some don't care for that site, and that's cool, just wanted to give my source if anyone wonders "how the heck did he come up with that view" lol).

And reading up on OT and OG ratings, it seems that there's not really many, if any, players that just light up the board, players that have very few shortcomings and are thought to be "sure fire" HOFers (as much as you can tell pre-draft, of course). You have OTs that have short arms, OGs that don't have good hand placement, the player is from a small school, had problems with top defensive players, etc. etc. etc. So this year, yes, you can probably get one of the top-rated guys in the second round. And DT seems to be similar this year, of course if Carter hadn't had the street racing incident, he'd be the top-rated DT by far. But he did have the incident.

This year we'll see who the best teams are at drafting, imo, able to sort through the chaff and find the solid players....

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I can see your view, and it makes sense.

For what it's worth, my go-to source for pre-draft ratings is Walter Football, some don't care for that site, and that's cool, just wanted to give my source if anyone wonders "how the heck did he come up with that view" lol).

And reading up on OT and OG ratings, it seems that there's not really many, if any, players that just light up the board, players that have very few shortcomings and are thought to be "sure fire" HOFers (as much as you can tell pre-draft, of course). You have OTs that have short arms, OGs that don't have good hand placement, the player is from a small school, had problems with top defensive players, etc. etc. etc. So this year, yes, you can probably get one of the top-rated guys in the second round. And DT seems to be similar this year, of course if Carter hadn't had the street racing incident, he'd be the top-rated DT by far. But he did have the incident.

This year we'll see who the best teams are at drafting, imo, able to sort through the chaff and find the solid players....

Oh Walter is my go to as well lol. Didnt' know it got hate I've been up on them for years. They aren't terribly off with their projections I Find them more credible than Keiper and these other guys. So yeah I'm basing my opinion on what sites like Water says but you know how that goes its gonna be some guy projected to be a 4th rounder get taken in the 1st and gonna flip the whole draft upside down lol

 

[Hoofbite]

It's not about being "afraid" it's about making the most of the picks we have. There are plenty of needs. Most of us feel an offensive lineman is needed and are best chosen at the top of the draft. Serviceable runningbacks can be had later.

For me it's about more than that. We just watched a guy who was taken Top 5 have a pretty steep falloff at the age of 26-27. Their careers are too short for my liking and you can find productive players in later rounds.

That said, if Bijan is all he's hyped up to be I would consider taking him if he's there and other preferred players have already been snatched up.

 

[CouchCoach]

The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.

I only need a RB to last 4 years, maybe 5 if he is exceptional.

Next, is which RB's I think will best help the offense and QB and WR's specifically and I see two, Robinson and Gibbs.

But the real key to me, since I am all about this season, is which RB's can transition fast enough to provide significant impact in their first year? There most likely are more than two that can do that but can they be true difference makers in the pass and run game?

Gibbs might be there at 26 but I don't think Robinson will be, too much chatter about other teams having interest in him ahead of the Cowboys in picking.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

its gonna be some guy projected to be a 4th rounder get taken in the 1st and gonna flip the whole draft upside down lol

Oh, yeah, love to see the so-called draft experts have to scramble to explain why...

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

They shouldn't be looking at any RB on the 1st day after committing to pay a guy north of $10M for the season. The bigger question is, what do Pollard and his Agent think about his value as an "all around RB"? Paying a RB $10M and not considering him an all around back is not a prudent personnel move.

Maybe not. But my stance is do what it takes to win. Put the best players on the field out there. I can get creative with Pollard and another running back on the field at the same time. Something we couldn't o with Zeke because it didn't seem like he was a very effective pass catcher.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I only need a RB to last 4 years, maybe 5 if he is exceptional.

Next, is which RB's I think will best help the offense and QB and WR's specifically and I see two, Robinson and Gibbs.

But the real key to me, since I am all about this season, is which RB's can transition fast enough to provide significant impact in their first year? There most likely are more than two that can do that but can they be true difference makers in the pass and run game?

Gibbs might be there at 26 but I don't think Robinson will be, too much chatter about other teams having interest in him ahead of the Cowboys in picking.

I agree. I don't care about second contract or none of that. I'm putting the best team I can on that field and Bijan and Gibbs both offer so much in the passing game as well....if Jalen Carter fell to us I'd for sure love to take him.....but realistically I Don't think thats' happening. I think you are going to find yourself with a bunch of players with a round 2 grade and if that's the case why not go RB? I think Gibbs might be the most realistic option.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Oh, yeah, love to see the so-called draft experts have to scramble to explain why...

Haha oh yeah....sometimes they don't even have film footage of the guy on TV lol. I think that's how Nashon Wright was lol. Granted, they seem to rightfully not know who the hell he was. I hear his brother Rezhon might be the real deal though.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.

It's not afraid. I think RBs can be found later. This is a deep RB class. Specially if you want to platoon and other positions are needed and have more impact. Guard, DT LB DE are bigger needs. So if several players at 26 grade closely, I rather go with a guard or DT. There is a drop off in OL and DL after top 3....so if you want one you grab them early.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

The exact same argument can be made for RB. Saquon has been injured. Fournette was a bust(for the jags), Trent Richardson was a bust. Gurley retired mid 20’s due to injury. Bijan becoming AP is an extreme. He’s overwhelming likely not to be that, as the others people promised would be… werent.

JJ Watt won D MVP on his rookie deal. Nick Bosa was DMVP on his rookie deal. TJ Watt won DMVP on his rookie deal. Aaron Donald won his first DMVP on his rookie deal. Khalil Mack won DMVP on his rookie deal. None of these guys were in their prime so not as valuable as the RBs?

But let’s separate this plethora of extremes. Let’s say you only get a good RB with that top 10 Pick. How is that not a huge mistake? Because not only is he not a 1500 yard guy, but he’ll still going to run dry and out of his prime in 5-6 years, as you say. Conversely, Brandon Graham was 10th overall and is going into year 14 after putting up 11 sacks. That’s a non-superstar DE. Jerry Hughes going into year 14 for the Texans, same draft, no all pro selections.

If you compare the top end guys to the top end RBs, the results are much better for DEs. If you compare the second tier guys, it gets worse, if you go all the way to the middling guys like Derek Barnett or Solomon Thomas, these guys are still contributors and part time starters. A middling RB is out of the NFL before his rookie deal is over.

The only way this even looks good from the RB’s perspective is when you compare a once ever guy like AP to just a good DE like Graham. If anyone really hits on a Dlineman after Bijan was taken, which happens every year between 10-30, then it was not the best value to take the RB.

Well who the hell is saying Bijan is the next AP? I don't need him to be the next AP lol.

And I don't get your DMVP comment. I never said a guy isn't in his prime on his rookie deal. I said a guy doesn't start entering his prime until its time to pay him. Typically their best seasons come right before a contract year.

I don't care about the stats. Sure they may matter they may not. I want someone who's going to help my team win next season. I don't care about year 10 I don't care about year 5....I care about NEXT SEASON.

In short, I believe Bijan Robinson gives me a better chance to win in 2023 then Devon Witherspoon or Joey Porter.

LEt's call it what it is. You're using extreme examples of ALL Pro's and Pro Bowlers....I don't have that information right now. I'm entering the draft blind. All I know is what I've seen from tape and what holes I have and what it takes to win. And just knowing that little information? I like what BIjan Robinson can give me this year more than any player in this draft.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

It's not afraid. I think RBs can be found later. This is a deep RB class. Specially if you want to platoon and other positions are needed and have more impact. Guard, DT LB DE are bigger needs. So if several players at 26 grade closely, I rather go with a guard or DT. There is a drop off in OL and DL after top 3....so if you want one you grab them early.

A RB can be found later. But I will settle for a inferior running back just to take a guard or a DT that won't even start for me this year? Or have that much of a impact? I mean let's be honest here....Hankins and Diggy are our starting DT's. Any guard we draft will be a backup.

 

[Typhus]

Man....I don't know how creative Mike wants to get but he really could with Gibbs and Pollard especially in the passing game. Shanahan knows how with McCaffery and Deebo.

Since MM got handed over the offensive reigns, and considering he is the HC, I'm easily predicting an offensively heavy draft.

 

[Established1971]

The biggest talking point I keep seeing about the whole "don't take a RB early" is because you can get one in later rounds and they don't last long.

Is it not a asset to take a RB in the 1st round?

I get him for 4 years with a option year which is 5 years on a favorable rookie deal.

I can think franchise him for one year at 11-12 million......

I'm getting 6 years of a guys young prime career on a affordable deal and I'm getting one of the better RB prospects in this draft....

Will you get 6 prime years out of any other position not Quarterback? Maybe wide receiver?

I'm just trying to figure out why should I be afraid to take a RB early like others seem to be. If I was the Eagles and had the 10th pick in the draft I for sure would think long and hard about Bijan Robinson.

Not sure "afraid" is a proper word, it's just that people have experience watching the NFL and reason that it is not wise to do, thats all. Recent years have shown that most productive running backs come in rounds 2-4. It's not the old days of Dorsett, Dickerson, Faulk, Earl Campbell etc, it's a new day. Cowboys recently used a high 1 for a rb and got like 2.5 good seasons out of him. Why repeat the mistake when you dont need to?