CFZ Why are people getting giddy about Trey Lance?

[TheMarathonContinues]

I mean Andy Dalton? What did Dak do to these poor *******s?

I ask myself that everyday lol….

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Let's hit the breaks a bit here and look at some facts.

What did the 49ers trade to get Trey Lance in the 2021 draft?

They gave up the #3 pick in 2021, their #1 pick in 2022 (29 overall), their #3 pick in 2022 (101 overall), and their #1 pick in 2023 (29 overall).

Two years later, they trade him for a 4th round pick, and by their own admission, they were surprised to get a 4th.

Lance lost the backup spot in San Fran to the great Sam Darnold.

Kyle Shanahan, an excellent coach with an eye for talent, had no issue letting Lance go. Why?

This should raise a fist full of red flags. Okay, I get the "let's take a flyer on this guy" mentality. But I'm sure Dallas was not the only team that knew he could be had, and there weren't a ton of offers for his services. In the limited time he has played, the only thing he has proven is that he can't play. I've seen an article that claimed this move was taken from the Howie Roseman playbook. No it wasn't. Roseman isn't stupid enough to trade for a guy that they would have to pay $22 million to in his 5th year to sit behind their star QB. Are we going to be dumb enough to do that?

I know there are peeps here secretly hoping that Dak falters and Lance gets the job. Trey Lance is not taking Dak's job, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold.

He's got talent and different coaching, different schemes might bring it out of him. Jayron Kearse was kicked to the curb too by different coaches,,, Geno Smith too. I'm liking what I'm hearing about his arm talent,,, if the guy can learn to read defenses and keep his cool we might have us the real deal.

 

[StarOfGlory]

He's got talent and different coaching, different schemes might bring it out of him. Jayron Kearse was kicked to the curb too by different coaches,,, Geno Smith too. I'm liking what I'm hearing about his arm talent,,, if the guy can learn to read defenses and keep his cool we might have us the real deal.

I hope so.

 

[RonnieT24]

What are you talking about? I was not comparing a hurt Dak to a healthy Dalton. Where did you come up with that idea?

Dak was not hurt when he played in 2020, or in 2022.
Dalton started most of the 2022 season for NO.
Better being better efficiency and all around play.

You're asking me to answer for the decisions of others.
For all I know Bryce Young will be the greatest QB of all time.

Do you watch football, or just Dak?

Uh no.. QBR is the best measure we have for all around efficiency and Dak's was 57.9 to Dalton's 50.7. Dalton had a higher passer rating (95.2 to 91.2) but any objective person would have to concede that without the 5 or 6 INTs that bounced off receivers' facemask/shoulders/hands Dak's would have been much higher. Those hurt his passer rating and frankly had little or nothing to do with him. He put the ball on the guys and they didn't catch it. Not to say he didn't have other bad throws that DBs dropped.. but again.. any objective person would acknowledge that last season was just an anomaly for him and for this team and no one expects a repeat of that. If for no other reason than the receivers will be much better.

Another measure we can look at to judge QB play is how well does their offense function. Even with largely garbage at receiver Dak's offense averaged 27.5 ppg and over 30 when Dak played. Dalton's offense averaged under 20. Dak's offense converted 45.4% of 3rd downs. Dalton's was 40.2. Dak's offense converted 71.4% of red zone trips into TDs compared to 52.4 for Dalton's offense.

Now I know none of this will change anybody's mind who thinks Dalton is a better QB than Dak. My intention is simply to call out the fallacy of the statements made and let people decide for themselves.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

He's got talent and different coaching, different schemes might bring it out of him. Jayron Kearse was kicked to the curb too by different coaches,,, Geno Smith too. I'm liking what I'm hearing about his arm talent,,, if the guy can learn to read defenses and keep his cool we might have us the real deal.

Geno Smith sucked for years. he had one decent year and people are treating him as if he broke all kinds of records and shattered a glass ceiling. Can geno do it two years in a row?

 

[JD_KaPow]

I guess I don't see why it won't happen? He hasn't had a chance yet to show what he can do, and he certainly didn't get the coaching because that was going into other players that were going to play without injuries... I think all of us can agree his intangibles are off the chart, so my take is San Fran is a very weird environment for Qb's in the first place and with trey getting hurt mixed with that havoc ensued.. There is no way that a kid that bright with all those tools won't develop under guys like Fat Mike.. I also think he will watch Dak and learn and take what he does a step further... Like you said, I'm being overly optimistic for sure, but I seriously believe that San Fran is a a fail when it comes to picking the right Qb's and Shanny is a nutcase..

Anytime you're projecting development and improvement, it's nowhere near a sure thing. The NFL is riddled with "can't-miss" prospects who missed, who never developed and washed out of the league. This is especially true at the QB position, where a ton of spectacular college players just don't make the leap successfully to the NFL. The longer a guy has been around without developing, the more likely it is that it's just not going to happen. The last time Lance played competitive football at a high level for more than a game at a time was 4 years ago. Maybe you're right and he'll turn it all around in Dallas, but it's nowhere near a certainty.

 

[Trajan]

Lance is a talented project. Dak is on the team for two more years at least, so there is time to evaluate the guy and see if he can be anything more than a project.

 

[Kevinicus]

Uh no.. QBR is the best measure we have for all around efficiency and Dak's was 57.9 to Dalton's 50.7. Dalton had a higher passer rating (95.2 to 91.2) but any objective person would have to concede that without the 5 or 6 INTs that bounced off receivers' facemask/shoulders/hands Dak's would have been much higher. Those hurt his passer rating and frankly had little or nothing to do with him. He put the ball on the guys and they didn't catch it. Not to say he didn't have other bad throws that DBs dropped.. but again.. any objective person would acknowledge that last season was just an anomaly for him and for this team and no one expects a repeat of that. If for no other reason than the receivers will be much better.

Another measure we can look at to judge QB play is how well does their offense function. Even with largely garbage at receiver Dak's offense averaged 27.5 ppg and over 30 when Dak played. Dalton's offense averaged under 20. Dak's offense converted 45.4% of 3rd downs. Dalton's was 40.2. Dak's offense converted 71.4% of red zone trips into TDs compared to 52.4 for Dalton's offense.

Now I know none of this will change anybody's mind who thinks Dalton is a better QB than Dak. My intention is simply to call out the fallacy of the statements made and let people decide for themselves.

LOL. QBR is the best? Agree to disagree.

And the nonsense argument of picking and choosing interceptions we can take away from one play, but not the other is a complete joke.
Acting like Dak had a worse supporting cast than Dalton
Ignoring that the biggest factor in PPG was the defense leading the league in turnovers (AGAIN).

I'm merely comparing one player to another. Not entire offenses or teams.
And you talk about fallacies? Hilarious.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Lance is a talented project. Dak is on the team for two more years at least, so there is time to evaluate the guy and see if he can be anything more than a project.

Well, kind of. They have to decide after this season (and before next year's training camp) whether to pick up his fifth-year option.

 

[Steve007]

Let's hit the breaks a bit here and look at some facts.

What did the 49ers trade to get Trey Lance in the 2021 draft?

They gave up the #3 pick in 2021, their #1 pick in 2022 (29 overall), their #3 pick in 2022 (101 overall), and their #1 pick in 2023 (29 overall).

Two years later, they trade him for a 4th round pick, and by their own admission, they were surprised to get a 4th.

Lance lost the backup spot in San Fran to the great Sam Darnold.

Kyle Shanahan, an excellent coach with an eye for talent, had no issue letting Lance go. Why?

This should raise a fist full of red flags. Okay, I get the "let's take a flyer on this guy" mentality. But I'm sure Dallas was not the only team that knew he could be had, and there weren't a ton of offers for his services. In the limited time he has played, the only thing he has proven is that he can't play. I've seen an article that claimed this move was taken from the Howie Roseman playbook. No it wasn't. Roseman isn't stupid enough to trade for a guy that they would have to pay $22 million to in his 5th year to sit behind their star QB. Are we going to be dumb enough to do that?

I know there are peeps here secretly hoping that Dak falters and Lance gets the job. Trey Lance is not taking Dak's job, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold.

SF traded 3 first and a third for a forth so that draft was a massive fail. Bad judgement on SF. I wouldn't trust shanahan on how good lance is. Purdy plays well for 8 games and they anoint him as the guy. Time will tell. I wouldnt use Kyle Shanahan as good judgement on QBs. I don't have an opinion on lance I'm just enjoying SF missing on that draft.

 

[Bullflop]

Lance might be a work in progress, by the looks of it.

We'll see if Trey's talent eventually becomes impressive.

Some QBs are slow bloomers who require dogged patience.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Lance is a talented project. Dak is on the team for two more years at least, so there is time to evaluate the guy and see if he can be anything more than a project.

You'd think it would be simple, right?

 

[Ring6]

Lets ask who the heck is giddy about a 3rd string QB. I bet there are far fewer than what was assumed. And rightfully so. Give it a couple years.

 

[Trajan]

Well, kind of. They have to decide after this season (and before next year's training camp) whether to pick up his fifth-year option.

True, but I was looking more at Dak’s huge contract though. Unless Lance comes in and lights it up, doubt it would take much to keep him around.

 

[SultanOfSix]

Why? Simply because he’s the highest rated QB prospect in the draft that Cowboys have been able to acquire since Aikman who is still young and they didn’t have to give up the farm for.

I’m ignoring mental cases like Ryan Leaf.

Lucking into Romo and then wasting his years pre-McClay and under average coaches and an unqualified Garrett was sheer idiocy and isn’t a legitimate plan of action.

 

[RonnieT24]

LOL. QBR is the best? Agree to disagree.

And the nonsense argument of picking and choosing interceptions we can take away from one play, but not the other is a complete joke.
Acting like Dak had a worse supporting cast than Dalton
Ignoring that the biggest factor in PPG was the defense leading the league in turnovers (AGAIN).

I'm merely comparing one player to another. Not entire offenses or teams.
And you talk about fallacies? Hilarious.

So exactly which measurement are you using to come to your conclusion that Dalton played better? Dak threw more TDs.. led far and away the more prolific offense and despite throwing 15 INTs, at least 5 of which absolutely belong to the receivers no matter what you say, led an offense that committed fewer turnovers. Dak's QBR was higher because he played better overall. Yes Dalton had a higher passer rating.. but passer rating rates passing efficiency and that's all. It does not take into account interceptions that his teammates handed to the other team nor does it take into account degree of difficulty of throws. Dak was more aggressive last year than he has ever been. Obviously he needs to dial that back some.

In the final analysis you are not comparing one player to another. You are comparing one statistic to another because it supports your narrative. Better players tend help their team to win more games. Dalton didn't.. so I am not inclined to argue that he played better. The Saints defense ranked 9th in points allowed and 5th in yards. Meaning it was a top 10 defense. Their composite score would be 7th. The Cowboys were 5th in points allowed and 12th in yards. Their composite score would be 8.5. Meaning the Saints defense was statistically slightly better than the Cowboys. Yet despite playing in a far weaker division they only managed 7 wins? Because their offense was terrible. Who piloted that terrible offense for 14 games? Andy Dalton that's who.