CFZ Why are people getting giddy about Trey Lance?

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Geno Smith says hold my beer

Half a good season doesn't make your point.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Go back. Read my post. Read it twice if you have to. I explained the whole thing. Or go to Eli Manning’s Wikipedia page or pro-football-reference page, which will both tell you that he was drafted first overall by the Chargers. Why is this so hard for you to comprehend?

If you’re trolling, well then, whatever.

I don't care for trolls much...but I'm hoping that kid is a troll and ...for real.

 

[JD_KaPow]

The issue I’m having is you’re saying I’m wrong because I said Rivers was drafted 4th overall by the Chargers…..which is such a stupid thing to argue against because what you’re saying is actually worse. They had Brees and used a 1st overall on Eli. I’m not gonna go back and forth on this I just disagree. That’s all I can say.

Yup. Troll.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Yup. Troll.

I’m the troll but you keep going on about. Act your age and not shoe size. It’s ok to agree to disagree. I disagree with you. End of discussion.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Who cares?

At the end of the day, Brees has an up year in 2004 and then regressed in 2005 which got him traded. He absolutely raised his level of play and consistency once reaching NO.

Your initial argument was about how there were no QBs who elevated their play after a fresh start. Brees fits as do several others that were presented to you like Smith and Gannon.

Brees wasn’t traded. He was a hot commodity on the free agent market despite the uncertainty around his injury. The only reason he was on the market was because SD had Rivers, who was drafted before Brees's breakout 2004 season.

Smith and Gannon found success at their 4th stops, a decade removed from their original teams (for which they both started at least two seasons). Also very poor fits for Lance, and it doesn't really do the Cowboys any good if Lance has some good seasons 10 years from now.

Not one of the guys you list played as little for their original team, or was given up on so quickly, and it’s not close. Yes, Lance has been injured etc., but I'm pretty sure that if he becomes successful in the near term (the next 2-3 years), he'll be a unicorn.

 

[DCwarrior]

Half a good season doesn't make your point.

Ok Scooter.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Brees wasn’t traded. He was a hot commodity on the free agent market despite the uncertainty around his injury. The only reason he was on the market was because SD had Rivers, who was drafted before Brees's breakout 2004 season.

Smith and Gannon found success at their 4th stops, a decade removed from their original teams (for which they both started at least two seasons). Also very poor fits for Lance, and it doesn't really do the Cowboys any good if Lance has some good seasons 10 years from now.

Not one of the guys you list played as little for their original team, or was given up on so quickly, and it’s not close. Yes, Lance has been injured etc., but I'm pretty sure that if he becomes successful in the near term (the next 2-3 years), he'll be a unicorn.

Traded or FA it doesn't make a difference. Did he or did he not significantly improve in NO?

So then QBs can find success when they get to the right environment. BTW, who was the QB coach when Gannon turned his career around?

 

[JD_KaPow]

Traded or FA it doesn't make a difference. Did he or did he not significantly improve in NO?

So then QBs can find success when they get to the right environment. BTW, who was the QB coach when Gannon turned his career around?

It doesn't matter if he had better years in New Orleans. Brees had ALREADY demonstrated that he belonged as a quality starting QB in the NFL before he moved on. Needless to say, Lance isn't anywhere close to that point.

The examples you've given are QBs who had already demonstrated the ability to be starters in the NFL. They'd already done it for multiple seasons. Yes, they had better seasons late in their careers. Who are the guys who couldn't ever crack the starting lineups of their first teams or beat out the #2 QB on their first teams, and then later turned it around and became effective NFL starters? I can't think of any.

I can think of a huge number of guys who were drafted high, didn't do well with their first teams and were eventually given up on. The vast majority of those guys didn't amount to anything (JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, Josh Rosen, Johnny Football, Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, just a few off the top of my head).

Again, if your best examples are Gannon and Geno, first of all, they're not very comparable, and secondly, I'd rather not have the Cowboys be the stepping-stone on Lance's path to success in his 30s with some other team.

 

[FVSTONE]

Nobody knows what we have in Trey Lance, but you take that chance for a 4th rounder. Even if all he turns into is a competent backup, then great, you came out ahead. If he doesn't pan out, it will be just like the long list of other 4th rounders that didn't pan out.

We traded away Amari, our best WR, for a 5th and he actually played well for the Browns.

The 9ers do.........LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It doesn't matter if he had better years in New Orleans. Brees had ALREADY demonstrated that he belonged as a quality starting QB in the NFL before he moved on. Needless to say, Lance isn't anywhere close to that point.

The examples you've given are QBs who had already demonstrated the ability to be starters in the NFL. They'd already done it for multiple seasons. Yes, they had better seasons late in their careers. Who are the guys who couldn't ever crack the starting lineups of their first teams or beat out the #2 QB on their first teams, and then later turned it around and became effective NFL starters? I can't think of any.

I can think of a huge number of guys who were drafted high, didn't do well with their first teams and were eventually given up on. The vast majority of those guys didn't amount to anything (JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, Josh Rosen, Johnny Football, Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, just a few off the top of my head).

Again, if your best examples are Gannon and Geno, first of all, they're not very comparable, and secondly, I'd rather not have the Cowboys be the stepping-stone on Lance's path to success in his 30s with some other team.

So then only established QBs can improve once on a new team?

And since you dodged the question, I will answer it. MM was Gannon's QB coach when he turned his career around.

At this point, Lance does not have enough snaps to evaluate him. I am comfortable giving him a chance to develop with a coach that has shown he can turn QBs careers around. Can you accept that?

 

[JD_KaPow]

So then only established QBs can improve once on a new team?

And since you dodged the question, I will answer it. MM was Gannon's QB coach when he turned his career around.

At this point, Lance does not have enough snaps to evaluate him. I am comfortable giving him a chance to develop with a coach that has shown he can turn QBs careers around. Can you accept that?

It's not about whether he can improve. He probably can: I mean, he has nowhere to go but up.

I'll say it again. I don't think there's ever been a highly-drafted QB who washed out at his first stop anywhere near as completely as Trey Lance did in SF, who went on to be a successful starter in the league. There are dozens upon dozens of highly-drafted QBs who washed out that way at their first stop and never amounted to anything.

I'm not talking about guys who were below-average or disappointing as starters at their first stop, I'm talking about guys who couldn't win the backup job at their first stop.

Yes, you can point to unique circumstances with Lance (injuries, inexperience, he was named starter last season, etc.), but everybody has a story. When people say, "this time is different," 90+% of the time it's not different.

My other concern about this is that I don't really see a great path forward for him in Dallas. He clearly needs a lot of work, but he's not going to get any meaningful reps this season and he's certainly not going to get much of McCarthy's attention (he's not a QB coach anymore). So that means we go into his last offseason on his rookie contract with minimal development and more rust on him, a likely extension for Dak, and the team having to make a decision about whether to pull the trigger on his 5th-year option. It's a move that doesn't make sense to me for this team, in this team's particular circumstances.

Maybe he's a unicorn and comes in next offseason and blows the football world away. But I would bet heavily against that happening. I consider it much more unlikely than getting a good football player in the draft with that 4th-round pick. I accept that the risk-reward calculus is different for a QB than for any other position, but this still seems like a pretty bad gamble to me.

Edit: You know what, there is an example that maybe fits better. Kurt Warner. It's not a perfect match: he was undrafted, so he wasn't given the kinds of chances in his first go-round that a highly-drafted player would, and he only came back after getting years of actual experience as a starter in the Arena League. But there's no doubt he washed out and came back strong. Of course, Warner is the unicorn to end all unicorns.

 

[Kevinicus]

You seen this place? You have posters who said Andy Dalton and Cooper Rush would make Dak expendable. There’s people here who wanted Carson Wentz and JOHNNY Football. They have no idea what they’re doing.

I think Dalton could have.

Sadly the OL was an atrocity that year, and Dak got the very best of it.

Dalton certainly outplayed Dak last year.

 

[CowboyFanInLexKy]

Look at our own Rayne Dakota Prescott. He was drafted in the 4th round, never was expected to amount to much because he was 3rd string behind Romo and Dalton. If it weren't for both getting injured in the same season, he would still be #3 QB. He was just lucky to be at the right place at the right time.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I think Dalton could have.

Sadly the OL was an atrocity that year, and Dak got the very best of it.

Dalton certainly outplayed Dak last year.

Im
Not gonna entertain this stupidity today. This is low for even a Dak hater.

 

[Kevinicus]

Im
Not gonna entertain this stupidity today. This is low for even a Dak hater.

100% truth.

When that = stupidity for you, reevaluate.

 

[johneric8]

It's not about whether he can improve. He probably can: I mean, he has nowhere to go but up.

I'll say it again. I don't think there's ever been a highly-drafted QB who washed out at his first stop anywhere near as completely as Trey Lance did in SF, who went on to be a successful starter in the league. There are dozens upon dozens of highly-drafted QBs who washed out that way at their first stop and never amounted to anything.

I'm not talking about guys who were below-average or disappointing as starters at their first stop, I'm talking about guys who couldn't win the backup job at their first stop.

Yes, you can point to unique circumstances with Lance (injuries, inexperience, he was named starter last season, etc.), but everybody has a story. When people say, "this time is different," 90+% of the time it's not different.

My other concern about this is that I don't really see a great path forward for him in Dallas. He clearly needs a lot of work, but he's not going to get any meaningful reps this season and he's certainly not going to get much of McCarthy's attention (he's not a QB coach anymore). So that means we go into his last offseason on his rookie contract with minimal development and more rust on him, a likely extension for Dak, and the team having to make a decision about whether to pull the trigger on his 5th-year option. It's a move that doesn't make sense to me for this team, in this team's particular circumstances.

Maybe he's a unicorn and comes in next offseason and blows the football world away. But I would bet heavily against that happening. I consider it much more unlikely than getting a good football player in the draft with that 4th-round pick. I accept that the risk-reward calculus is different for a QB than for any other position, but this still seems like a pretty bad gamble to me.

Edit: You know what, there is an example that maybe fits better. Kurt Warner. It's not a perfect match: he was undrafted, so he wasn't given the kinds of chances in his first go-round that a highly-drafted player would, and he only came back after getting years of actual experience as a starter in the Arena League. But there's no doubt he washed out and came back strong. Of course, Warner is the unicorn to end all unicorns.

Here is my take- Shannahan is a very weird duck and very very rigid.. He thought Jimmy G was a good Qb, and Purdy is new and defenses will make him below average after some tape... Lance got hurt both years and fell behind and him and Shanny didn't jive... Hands down, lance is more talented than Dak ever dreamed of being even though I love Dak... The QB room and coaching over in san fran is helter skelter strange in my opinion and lance never got the time or coaching needed to make the leap, he was thrown into the fire and wasn't ready.. People really underestimate how good fat mike is with Qb's, especially young ones that are needing to grow... I think the Lance deal was a God send for this organization and he will undoubtedly end up a stud in the next couple of years.. I also believe that if Dak gets hurt Lance will excel because this offense is much more Qb friendly than San Frans from all the reports I've read...

 

[Mr Cowboy]

 

[kskboys]

Let's hit the breaks a bit here and look at some facts.

What did the 49ers trade to get Trey Lance in the 2021 draft?

They gave up the #3 pick in 2021, their #1 pick in 2022 (29 overall), their #3 pick in 2022 (101 overall), and their #1 pick in 2023 (29 overall).

Two years later, they trade him for a 4th round pick, and by their own admission, they were surprised to get a 4th.

Lance lost the backup spot in San Fran to the great Sam Darnold.

Kyle Shanahan, an excellent coach with an eye for talent, had no issue letting Lance go. Why?

This should raise a fist full of red flags. Okay, I get the "let's take a flyer on this guy" mentality. But I'm sure Dallas was not the only team that knew he could be had, and there weren't a ton of offers for his services. In the limited time he has played, the only thing he has proven is that he can't play. I've seen an article that claimed this move was taken from the Howie Roseman playbook. No it wasn't. Roseman isn't stupid enough to trade for a guy that they would have to pay $22 million to in his 5th year to sit behind their star QB. Are we going to be dumb enough to do that?

I know there are peeps here secretly hoping that Dak falters and Lance gets the job. Trey Lance is not taking Dak's job, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold.

Because they don't know any better. Next question.

 

[Wangchung83]

The Chargers drafted Manning with the first overall pick. The Giants drafted Rivers with the 4th pick. Then, during the draft, they traded the players and some picks. You can read all about it here, though I doubt you will since you don't believe in checking your facts: https://boltbeat.com/2020/05/30/la-chargers-eli-manning-philip-rivers-robbery/

Here's what you said: "Brees HOF career started with the Saints. ITs a fact. Maybe you have a great eye and saw his talent in SD. Good for you. But his talent wasn't on full display until he got to NO with Sean Payton." Note the third sentence that you conveniently ignore here, where you imply that nobody saw his talent in SD. Everybody saw his talent in SD. That's why teams made the offers they did, even with the uncertainty about his shoulder. And I have no idea what "his HOF career started with the Saints" is supposed to mean. It obviously started with the Chargers, with that big season in 2004. When a player makes the Pro Bowl, wins Comeback Player of the Year, and finishes 3rd among QBs for Offensive Player of the Year, you can't pretend that he hadn't yet established himself as a top tier QB or that his HOF career had somehow not yet started.

Sorry have to disagree with you on the story behind Eli being drafted. It’s well known that’s Eli said he wasn’t going to play for the chargers and this also included Archie stating as much. The chargers drafted him and had a deal in place to trade Eli to the Giants for Rivers and some draft capital. The draft picks you don’t expand on were given by the Giants to the chargers. Fact is Eli wasn’t ever going to play for the chargers and this was known ahead of his draft day.

Here’s how it all went down:
The San Diego Chargers had the first overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft due to their 4–12 record in 2003.[74] With Manning being the most coveted player in the draft, it appeared that the Chargers' intentions were to draft him first overall. Meanwhile, Manning and his father Archie Manning stated that he would refuse to play for the Chargers if drafted by them.[75] Archie asked the father of former Chargers quarterback Ryan Leaf before the draft about his son's experience with the team. In hearing that the Chargers did not help Leaf with his personal problems, it then became part of why Eli refused to play for the team.[76]

The Chargers selected Manning with the first pick overall nonetheless, as the team had a deal with the New York Giants, whereby the Giants would draft and then trade Philip Rivers and a 2004 third-round pick, used to select placekicker Nate Kaeding; a 2005 first-round pick, used to select linebacker Shawne Merriman; and a 2005 fifth-round pick (which was later traded away) to the Chargers for Manning.[77] He signed a six-year, $45 million contract with the Giants.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Sorry have to disagree with you on the story behind Eli being drafted. It’s well known that’s Eli said he wasn’t going to play for the chargers and this also included Archie stating as much. The chargers drafted him and had a deal in place to trade Eli to the Giants for Rivers and some draft capital. The draft picks you don’t expand on were given by the Giants to the chargers. Fact is Eli wasn’t ever going to play for the chargers and this was known ahead of his draft day.

Here’s how it all went down:
The San Diego Chargers had the first overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft due to their 4–12 record in 2003.[74] With Manning being the most coveted player in the draft, it appeared that the Chargers' intentions were to draft him first overall. Meanwhile, Manning and his father Archie Manning stated that he would refuse to play for the Chargers if drafted by them.[75] Archie asked the father of former Chargers quarterback Ryan Leaf before the draft about his son's experience with the team. In hearing that the Chargers did not help Leaf with his personal problems, it then became part of why Eli refused to play for the team.[76]

The Chargers selected Manning with the first pick overall nonetheless, as the team had a deal with the New York Giants, whereby the Giants would draft and then trade Philip Rivers and a 2004 third-round pick, used to select placekicker Nate Kaeding; a 2005 first-round pick, used to select linebacker Shawne Merriman; and a 2005 fifth-round pick (which was later traded away) to the Chargers for Manning.[77] He signed a six-year, $45 million contract with the Giants.

That’s exactly what I said. Where’s the disagreement?