Why do we remove so many players from our draft board?

[hra8700]

I've noticed the past few years, with our draft boards being released, that we remove an awful lot of really good players (presumably for a variety of reasons, including injury, scheme, and character). It makes sense to drop players a round or two based on the severity of concern, but to remove highly gifted players from the board completely is a completely black and white way of approaching the draft and makes no sense to me.

Here are some of the rookies we didn't have on our draft board last year:

Jarvis Jones
Alec Ogletree
Matt Elam
Christine Michael
Keenan Allen
Robert Woods
Tyrann Matthieu
Sam Montgomery
Larry Warford

Many had very successful seasons.

 

[Setackin]

...it sucks but every team does it.

 

[TTexasTT]

Im pretty sure it has something to do with not having a crystal ball.

 

[Future]

b/c Jason is a wuss and afraid to take on players who might be a bit difficult to handle.

 

[zrinkill]

 

[xwalker]

I've noticed the past few years, with our draft boards being released, that we remove an awful lot of really good players (presumably for a variety of reasons, including injury, scheme, and character). It makes sense to drop players a round or two based on the severity of concern, but to remove highly gifted players from the board completely is a completely black and white way of approaching the draft and makes no sense to me.

Here are some of the rookies we didn't have on our draft board last year:

Jarvis Jones
Alec Ogletree
Matt Elam
Christine Michael
Keenan Allen
Robert Woods
Tyrann Matthieu
Sam Montgomery
Larry Warford

Many had very successful seasons.

In general (not specific to the Cowboys), it's better to draft players that you are confident in both their physical ability and mental-makeup/character. Teams can't get caught up in being worried that a player they pass on might be good. They need to focus on making picks that they believe have a high probability of being successful with their team.

They were correct about Sam Montgomery. He was cut mid-way through the season by Houston.

Everybody knew that Matthieu might be good/great, but they he also knew he might get in trouble at some point or be a bad influence on the other players. You can't judge character risk players after 1 year. You have to look back after about 3 years to see how many character risk players stayed out of trouble.

Larry Warford was not a fit in their Zone Blocking Scheme. The fact he is doing well in a man-blocking scheme is not an indicator that he could do all of the things that Cowboys wanted to do in their ZBS. It's like a 4-3 team passing a really good 3-4 NT. It wouldn't matter how good the NT becomes, that team is not going to switch schemes because 1 draft pick is available that would be great in the other scheme.

Garrett hired an outside company that specializes in evaluating the mental-makeup of players. If players don't pass their guidelines, the Cowboys take them off the board.

There will be players every year that are not on the board, but play well for another team. Drafting is about probabilities, not guarantees. You could spend 10k on lottery tickets and the upside is really high if you win, you probability is that you will lose.

 

[Setackin]

b/c Jason is a wuss and afraid to take on players who might be a bit difficult to handle.

Cause garrett doesn't get enough hate... now u want him to go after players with behavior problems... dont get me wrong I'm all for it... but calling him a "wuss" cause he doesnt want to add fuel to the fire... C'mon man

 

[Future]

Cause garrett doesn't get enough hate... now u want him to go after players with behavior problems... dont get me wrong I'm all for it... but calling him a "wuss" cause he doesnt want to add fuel to the fire... C'mon man

Taking a kid like Ogletree off your draft board b/c he made a common mistake is a wussy move.

I've said it 100 times. I think JG is a wuss. I think he coaches scared, I think he makes personnel decisions scared, and I think he even gives interviews scared. He's scared to break from the S11 formation when things get tough, and he's scared to stick to the run game because its not what he likes.

 

[Apollo Creed]

Off the top of my head D. Jackson, Harvin, and Burfict were all off our draft boards.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

b/c Jason is a wuss and afraid to take on players who might be a bit difficult to handle.

That would explain why they took many players off the board before Jason was coach here. SMH.

@zrinkill hit the nail on the head with his picture of the playmaker in his mugshot.

It started back then and taking Greg Ellis over Moss was the start. They later started getting more questionable draft prospects again and it bit them in the butt
With the likes of Antonio Bryant and the Ohio state CB (Ross iirc but not sure on his name).

So give it a break with the silly stuff.

 

[hra8700]

In general (not specific to the Cowboys), it's better to draft players that you are confident in both their physical ability and mental-makeup/character. Teams can't get caught up in being worried that a player they pass on might be good. They need to focus on making picks that they believe have a high probability of being successful with their team.

They were correct about Sam Montgomery. He was cut mid-way through the season by Houston.

Everybody knew that Matthieu might be good/great, but they he also knew he might get in trouble at some point or be a bad influence on the other players. You can't judge character risk players after 1 year. You have to look back after about 3 years to see how many character risk players stayed out of trouble.

Larry Warford was not a fit in their Zone Blocking Scheme. The fact he is doing well in a man-blocking scheme is not an indicator that he could do all of the things that Cowboys wanted to do in their ZBS. It's like a 4-3 team passing a really good 3-4 NT. It wouldn't matter how good the NT becomes, that team is not going to switch schemes because 1 draft pick is available that would be great in the other scheme.

Garrett hired an outside company that specializes in evaluating the mental-makeup of players. If players don't pass their guidelines, the Cowboys take them off the board.

There will be players every year that are not on the board, but play well for another team. Drafting is about probabilities, not guarantees. You could spend 10k on lottery tickets and the upside is really high if you win, you probability is that you will lose.

You know what's a better way of dealing with probabilities? This player has a risky mental makeup. That decreases his probability of success by X percent (and using actual historical data to make that determination). Therefore we will draft him X percent lower than we would have otherwise. I am not looking at this in hindsight, I don't agree with the approach in principle. Taking players fully off your board like that just shows a lack of nuance and sophistication. I heard that the cowboys finally brought in an analytics guy a few years ago...I hope he has some influence.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

You know what's a better way of dealing with probabilities? This player has a risky mental makeup. That decreases his probability of success by X percent (and using actual historical data to make that determination). Therefore we will draft him X percent lower than we would have otherwise. I am not looking at this in hindsight, I don't agree with the approach in principle. Taking players fully off your board like that just shows a lack of nuance and sophistication. I heard that the cowboys finally brought in an analytics guy a few years ago...I hope he has some influence.

Dez Bryant. They did the homework and decided he was an draft able player. They don't just remove them from the board completely for all things that are possible questions of character.

 

[hra8700]

Dez Bryant. They did the homework and decided he was an draft able player. They don't just remove them from the board completely for all things that are possible questions of character.

I didn't say they should "do homework." I said that everything is risk/reward, and you would have to say a player with 1st round talent who has questionable makeup is LESS likely to succeed in the nfl than a 7th round pick. I think in most cases, if you actually analyze it statistically, the former player will have a much higher probability of succeess.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I didn't say they should "do homework." I said that everything is risk/reward, and you would have to say a player with 1st round talent who has questionable makeup is LESS likely to succeed in the nfl than a 7th round pick. I think in most cases, if you actually analyze it statistically, the former player will have a much higher probability of succeess.

They do what they believe is risk reward. There have been players with some risk they keep on the board and others they do not believe is worth the risk. Also it is not just the Cowboys that take players off the board.

 

[TheSport78]

Not RKG's.

 

[NJ22]

Ummm because they do NOT have a history of injuries??

 

[tm1119]

Im pretty sure it has something to do with not having a crystal ball.

You didn't need a crystal ball to see that 7/9 of those guys are extremely talented and had a high percentage of succeeding. It's not some unknown secret that guys who slam their heads into people at high rates of speed for a living might not be mentally all there. You just have to weed out the ones that are going to be detrimental to the team.

 

[TTexasTT]

You didn't need a crystal ball to see that 7/9 of those guys are extremely talented and had a high percentage of succeeding. It's not some unknown secret that guys who slam their heads into people at high rates of speed for a living might not be mentally all there. You just have to weed out the ones that are going to be detrimental to the team.

ha, I doubt its as easy as you make it out to be. The whole draft is a crapshoot.

 

[xwalker]

I didn't say they should "do homework." I said that everything is risk/reward, and you would have to say a player with 1st round talent who has questionable makeup is LESS likely to succeed in the nfl than a 7th round pick. I think in most cases, if you actually analyze it statistically, the former player will have a much higher probability of succeess.

Obviously a 1st round pick has a higher probability of success than a 7th round pick.

It's not a comparison of a 1st rounder to a 7th. It's about comparing a 1st round pick with another 1st round pick.

 

[Alexander]

I've noticed the past few years, with our draft boards being released, that we remove an awful lot of really good players (presumably for a variety of reasons, including injury, scheme, and character). It makes sense to drop players a round or two based on the severity of concern, but to remove highly gifted players from the board completely is a completely black and white way of approaching the draft and makes no sense to me.

Here are some of the rookies we didn't have on our draft board last year:

Jarvis Jones
Alec Ogletree
Matt Elam
Christine Michael
Keenan Allen
Robert Woods
Tyrann Matthieu
Sam Montgomery
Larry Warford

Many had very successful seasons.

It is a leftover character eliminator that Parcells brought--"in the box".

All of these players (except Woods, who I do not think had issues) were either known as having criminal histories, hard to coach, moody, lazy, had weight issues.