Why does Witten get a pass?

[TheDude]

Look, I agree with some of what you're saying. I agree that stats aren't the entire story, but to be honest, they're the best means of evaluating players for us fans because they're the most objective data we have.

You think Witten isn't as good as he was because, in your opinion, he's slower than he used to be, among other things. Well, the problem I see with this is that it's all subjective. That, and I don't see where he's slowed down. Plus, his stats don't support that conclusion.

You have a right to your opinion; however, to me some of this stuff is considerably exaggerated and sounds like it's coming from a fan who is simply bent about the season so far and looking for someone to blame.

Of course, that's just my opinion.

he was never a burner, but he did run with a little more power and over people before. I think his blocking has gone down as well, but even with that is still better than most.

I am trying to be objective. That's why I put it out there that X player is not "Elite". What I think is irrational is all the "most talented team" garbage.

We may be just above average in total. we are heavier than most with top 10 talent and probably heavier than most with bottom 10 talent.

Losing Romo skews it lower.

Add in substandard coaches and you get 1-5

 

[ShiningStar]

Witten is loved and given a free pass because he is:

* white
*evangelical christian
*nice
*polite
*clean cut
*family man

If he looked and/or acted like shockey or bennett people here would shred him regardless of stats. that is fact.

Ugliest post written today. Seriously, that is so freaking filled with hate trying to hate on others thinking they are hating. And for spewing hate at others that you think are hating, makes you the bigger hater and i am througly offended of your post. Good day.

With that i hope others ignore that post and treat you accordingly.

 

[TheDude]

Ugliest post written today. Seriously, that is so freaking filled with hate trying to hate on others thinking they are hating. And for spewing hate at others that you think are hating, makes you the bigger hater and i am througly offended of your post. Good day.

With that i hope others ignore that post and treat you accordingly.

With Shockey being White, doesn't that ....

forget it.

 

[Dodger]

he was never a burner, but he did run with a little more power and over people before. I think his blocking has gone down as well, but even with that is still better than most.

I am trying to be objective. That's why I put it out there that X player is not "Elite". What I think is irrational is all the "most talented team" garbage.

We may be just above average in total. we are heavier than most with top 10 talent and probably heavier than most with bottom 10 talent.

Losing Romo skews it lower.

Add in substandard coaches and you get 1-5

Actually, I agree with most of this...except for the part about Witten. I just don't see how he's regressed. I mean, sure, he probably has a bit simply because he's an 8 year veteran now, but it's really not that noticable to me.

As for him being elite.....I'll stand by what I wrote earlier in this thead. Maybe, maybe not, but I think he'd still be in the conversation.

 

[TheDude]

Actually, I agree with most of this...except for the part about Witten. I just don't see how he's regressed. I mean, sure, he probably has a bit simply because he's an 8 year veteran now, but it's really not that noticable to me.

As for him being elite.....I'll stand by what I wrote earlier in this thead. Maybe, maybe not, but I think he'd still be in the conversation.

I can't disprove you. I'll give you top 4 for arguements sake, just outside Elite.

the thing is, not taking away from his intangible, I can't recall many games where you look back and say that win was 100% Witten and not Romo, Ware, romo AND Austin or Romo AND Wittten, etc. I can say that for some gates and davis games.

He doesn't lose games, but he doesn't seem to flat out destroy teams like Gates, Davis and Clark. These guys have more speed which can help them run down errant passes. i have seen a a few passes this year be about 2 yards in front of Witten. i thought to myself Gates, Davis, Clark catches that. Can't prove it, but it comes into mind after watching davis play with Smith.

Like I said Witten was probably the wrong person to make the point about talent, but i do think he has peaked - which is not to say i want him gone.

 

[hairic]

Witten gets a pass because no matter what, he produces.

Ever since he was made the starter, it's been true. Doesn't matter what kind of talent is around him either. The potential for a 90 catch, 1000+ yard season is there if you wanted him to have it. You don't want to build an offense around a TE, because, TEs are less powerful offensive weapons than WRs. Witten follows a trend where the better the WRs are, the less he produces because of that (WRs > TEs in offensive power).

I made that observation years ago, probably 2006, when Giants fans somewhere were arguing that Shockey was a better TE than Witten because he was more athletic. Looks like the trend's still there.

I won't look up the specific stats like per year YPA, catch %, etc because I have minimal cares about other people's internet opinions anymore, but the general trend is:

Quincy Morgan as #1 WR and Vinny Testaverde as the QB. 90 catches, 1000 yards.
Then drop off with Glenn+Owens seasons.
Career high when Glenn's knee goes and it's Owens + Crayton.
Then another name WR comes in and stats go down.
Owens is cut and production goes back up.
Williams and Bryant show up this season and production goes back down.

IOW, if you want Witten to go back to producing at his career peak, we should release two of these three right now: Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Dez Bryant so the offense will run through Witten again.

 

[AdamJT13]

Witten gets a pass because no matter what, he produces.

Ever since he was made the starter, it's been true. Doesn't matter what kind of talent is around him either. The potential for a 90 catch, 1000+ yard season is there if you wanted him to have it. You don't want to build an offense around a TE, because, TEs are less powerful offensive weapons than WRs. Witten follows a trend where the better the WRs are, the less he produces because of that (WRs > TEs in offensive power).

I made that observation years ago, probably 2006, when Giants fans somewhere were arguing that Shockey was a better TE than Witten because he was more athletic. Looks like the trend's still there.

I won't look up the specific stats like per year YPA, catch %, etc because I have minimal cares about other people's internet opinions anymore, but the general trend is:

Quincy Morgan as #1 WR and Vinny Testaverde as the QB. 90 catches, 1000 yards.
Then drop off with Glenn+Owens seasons.
Career high when Glenn's knee goes and it's Owens + Crayton.
Then another name WR comes in and stats go down.
Owens is cut and production goes back up.
Williams and Bryant show up this season and production goes back down.

IOW, if you want Witten to go back to producing at his career peak, we should release two of these three right now: Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Dez Bryant so the offense will run through Witten again.

The kicker is that his "production goes down" seasons are still among the best ever by a tight end. As I posted earlier, he's on pace 85 catches for 975 yards this season. Only 10 tight ends in history (including Witten) have ever had 85 catches in a season, and only 15 (including Witten) have ever had 975 yards in a season. He's one of only 10 tight ends who have ever had 80-plus catches and 950-plus yards in the same season, and he's on pace to do it for a record fifth time.

 

[AdamJT13]

not that it matters, but I never mentioned drops. But Witten's penalties are too much and if someone has more, those are too much also. Since 2009, Witten has got to be top 1 or 2 as i think he only trailed Flo. but that isn't the point

I can't PROVE he would have half the stats in SF, but an EDUCATED guess is that he would not have his current stats with Alex Smith as QB. I am not the one who trots out stats as irrefutable wholistic storytellers - YOU ARE. The appropriate use of statistics would be for you to collect data and disprove my hypothesis (thus reject the null). You can't and you will never be able to.

Another EDUCATED guess is that if any current TE could be drafted in next years draft by any team, Witten would not be top 5. but he would be top 10. What do you THINK? quickly data minig won't answer it for you

So, when you graduate from Stat 101 and move on through Stat 551, come back and disprove me with irrefutable evidence, until then my opinion is as valid as yours

In other words, you admit that all you have is your own personal opinion with nothing to support it.

You might as well predict that Orlando Scandrick will lead the NFL in interceptions this season or that DeMarcus Ware wouldn't start for some teams. Either of those theories would be just as valid.

 

[TheDude]

In other words, you admit that all you have is your own personal opinion with nothing to support it.

You might as well predict that Orlando Scandrick will lead the NFL in interceptions this season or that DeMarcus Ware wouldn't start for some teams. Either of those theories would be just as valid.

well the first a supposition of an educated guess. Put X (Davis, Clark,Gates,Finley) TE in this system and Witten in the other and i bet the TE production DOESN't fall and I bet TDs go up. I bet Witten's production goes down in SF, SD but maybe not GB, depends if he is Rogers goto guy in that system.

Assume we wake up tomorrow and Witten were traded to GB for finley (all healthy, etc) and a 4th. Do you think that costs us 1,2,3 wins?, I don't - it may fill a hole via draft pick with a decline in TE production. thing is GB NEVER makes that trade - so they AT least view Finley about as much as Witten. i bet you don't get a straight up trade for Davis, gates, Clark, Finley.

Witten is also a perfect player for the Patriots, but I bet belichek would NEVER give up a 1st for him. That tells me he isn't elite.

the latter examples you give are examples of an uneducated statements that you are welcome to assume. no one said Scandrick that I rebutted and now YOU are changing the discussion.

 

[AdamJT13]

Put X (Davis, Clark,Gates,Finley) TE in this system and Witten in the other and i bet the TE production DOESN't fall and I bet TDs go up.

Of course, you have absolutely nothing to support that opinion.

bet Witten's production goes down in SF

Yes, you've already made the ludicrous claim that Witten would have "half" of his production if he played in San Francisco. Of course, you have nothing to support that opinion, either.

SD

Again, you have absolutely nothing to support that opinion.

the latter examples you give are examples of an uneducated statements that you are welcome to assume. no one said Scandrick that I rebutted and now YOU are changing the discussion.

I wasn't changing the discussion. I was just giving examples of opinions that would be just as valid as yours.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Of course, you have absolutely nothing to support that opinion.




Yes, you've already made the ludicrous claim that Witten would have "half" of his production if he played in San Francisco. Of course, you have nothing to support that opinion, either.



Again, you have absolutely nothing to support that opinion.




I wasn't changing the discussion. I was just giving examples of opinions that would be just as valid as yours.

Adam delivering the

http://i949.***BLOCKED***/albums/ad336/SaltwaterServr/slap2.gif

 

[TheDude]

Of course, you have absolutely nothing to support that opinion.

nor do you to refute it

Yes, you've already made the ludicrous claim that Witten would have "half" of his production if he played in San Francisco. Of course, you have nothing to support that opinion, either.

I assume you think a sound estimate would be the same production-that's just as luicrous and unprovable.

What does Witten end up with this year +/- Yds, TDs, Catches? I bet davis ends up with more yrds, TDS from this point forward. games 7-16.

Again, you have absolutely nothing to support that opinion.
.

nor do you to refute it

I wasn't changing the discussion. I was just giving examples of opinions that would be just as valid as yours.

no, you are pulling an apples to Toyota comparison and that is ludicrous.


I noticed you aren't pulling out stats to support anything you have. Of course I don't expect you to at this point. you passively acknowledge you can't

You entered this thread talking about projections, etc. If you are the stat projection guru you claim...predict the end of year totals. Witten, Austin, TO, Davis, gates, etc. Anyone with Excel can take current stats and multiply by 16/7.

And I notice you didn't address the hypothetical trade scenario, Whose ducking?

you can dazzle people with numbers, its not hard to do - any half-wit with excel and data can do it as a 1st yr student, but it doesn't make your argument more valid if you stats are impacted by other variables. but you can still speak in certainties-the groupies enjoy it which if it feeds your ego-fine.

 

[TheDude]

Adam delivering the

http://i949.***BLOCKED***/albums/ad336/SaltwaterServr/slap2.gif

yeah, stat boy isn't refuting my dismantling of stats as "statistically significant" because he can't and he knows it. therefore, what proof does he have.

He also doesn;t seem to address all the points (trades, etc)

He needs to bring a little more I think but believe what you want.

 

[TheDude]

OK Adam

Since some of you wont put validity to anything unless there is a number attached to it.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te (you have to open the link, pasting it is a mess)

Notice their first disclosures

• We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
• These statistics measure only passes thrown to the tight end, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.

That said, I don't agree that Witten is the 20th best performing TE

I think that about does it, right?

 

[Cowboys79]

In other words, you admit that all you have is your own personal opinion with nothing to support it.

You might as well predict that Orlando Scandrick will lead the NFL in interceptions this season or that DeMarcus Ware wouldn't start for some teams. Either of those theories would be just as valid.

To say a player will or won't do as good with another team is true for every player in the league. Every team brings something another does and does not. Witten is by no means over rated He is a play maker. How often does he drop the ball? No he isn't fast but he is quick with stopping or changing direction in mid run thats how he gets open. I believe he is a top 5 TE.

 

[Cowboys79]

OK Adam

Since some of you wont put validity to anything unless there is a number attached to it.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te (you have to open the link, pasting it is a mess)

Notice their first disclosures

• We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
• These statistics measure only passes thrown to the tight end, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking
• and drawing double teams.

That said, I don't agree that Witten is the 20th best performing TE

I think that about does it, right?

that is this years stats With an o line that is terrible and play calling that is even worse. Look up his stats last year and tell me how you are hating on this guy so much? The year isn't even close to over even though our season is he could still make 900 yards.