"Why I'm neither high nor low on Switzer", otherwise titled "A History of Cowboys 4th Rounders"

[CATCH17]

Switzer is going t be a heck of a role player for us.. I can't see this pick not hitting.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Yes I will see for myself but until I do, I'm not going around saying he is things that I only hope he is. I'll wait and see.

I'm not saying what I hope. It's OK you can doubt it. Dak was doubted last year. I have no problem with people wanting to wait and see but don't be surprise when Switzer is our best receiver behind Dez this season

 

[JoeKing]

I'm not saying what I hope. It's OK you can doubt it. Dak was doubted last year. I have no problem with people wanting to wait and see but don't be surprise when Switzer is our best receiver behind Dez this season

It's as if you have a crystal ball the way you prophetically talk about future events. I don't care who the best receiver is or second best or third best. I just want the team to do well.

 

[T-RO]

Forgive me if I don't take the word of people who never mentioned the player before the draft. Not a single person here, minus that UNC homer who pimped every Tar Heel, has any credibility over Ryan Switzer. You didn't like him enough to talk about him before the draft. Your words are hollow after the draft. Don't care. Means nothing to me. You're just a cheerleader.

And you are just a greasy vat of snark.

 

[xwalker]

Not to forget Beasley, if memory serves me correctly, was a college quarterback converted to a receiver, so it took him sometime to learn the receiver position.
On the other hand, Switzer is coming into the league to play the position he played in college. He likely won't have as difficult a transition as Beasley did.

No, Beasley was a High School QB that played WR in college.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

And you are just a greasy vat of snark.

Looool, that made me laugh.

 

[xwalker]

I count about 1 out of every 3 actually being impact players who end up at some point in their careers being productive enough to start.

Maybe we'll continue our recent good fortune. Maybe we're due to regress back to the mean. Who knows.

Will McClay was promoted before the 2014 draft.

There is a good chance he is at a 100% run rate.

 

[lqmac1]

I count about 1 out of every 3 actually being impact players who end up at some point in their careers being productive enough to start.

Maybe we'll continue our recent good fortune. Maybe we're due to regress back to the mean. Who knows.

If that were the case, I'd hate to know how you feel about Chido!

 

[Bleu Star]

@Bleu Star agrees.

#Tulious

That's my boy!

 

[plasticman]

661 players drafted in the 4th round in the NFL from 2000-2017. Only 169 started 2 or more seasons. That is one out of 4.

Only 60 players started five seasons or more, three are Cowboys, that is 1 in 11, NFL average.

the Cowboys have done excellently in the 4th round when compared to the entire league..............Dak will eventually put them at the top when it comes to 4th round picks.

 

[Stash]

Sure you do. We're sports fans. We look at stats routinely for insight into what should be expected. It says nothing about any one player, but it gives us context... and particularly in the midst of so much seeming lock-certainty about the prospects for a given player. To your point, or so I presume, it's true it doesn't tell us what Switzer will or won't achieve, any more than it would have told us a few drafts ago what Anthony Hitchens would or wouldn't--and who, to my admittedly-limited memory, was about as dissed immediately following the draft as Switzer is being hyped.

The context, thus, says.... objectively, no hype or dissing being infused here... that it is about as reasonable to expect Switzer to someday emerge as a regular starter as it is to see one of baseball's better hitters to get a hit.

So... reasonable to expect, but.. and I guess this is where there'll be protest... not reasonable to be lock-certain of it. Some seem to be lock-certain, and maybe should soften on that.

I don't see where anything presented here has any bearing on what Switzer does one way or another.

While you're trying to talk about 1 out of every 3, I'm seeing a trend of hitting on those picks consistently for the past several years since a change was made in personnel with McClay. Anything prior to that is irrelevant.

It seems a wasted effort for numbers that aren't relevant to any argument one way or the other.

 

[NickZepp]

Last 4 are currently on roster and could all be playing solid roles next year. I'm the same way with all our draft picks. Our drafts the last few years have all been really solid compared to the decade or so before.

 

[Idgit]

I would consider Victor Butler and Kyle Wilber a success as well. If you make it through your rookie contract and are usually active...you're a success at a fourth round pick. Every player is not going to be an all pro. You're looking for role players in the fourth round.

Of course. We've got some fans who should know better still slow to understand how teams actually get built, but you're right.

Then again, there's a contingent here that thinks Doug Free was garbage, too.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

It's as if you have a crystal ball the way you prophetically talk about future events. I don't care who the best receiver is or second best or third best. I just want the team to do well.

I do have a crystal ball

 

[Idgit]

Let me direct your attention to this post...
http://cowboyszone.com/threads/we-dodged-a-bullet-on-draft-day.378672/#post-7343919

I admitted Switzer was not on my radar before we drafted him but I did research him afterwards. You're not giving up any dirty on me that I haven't already give on myself so rather than feeling smug about your post you need to back off. If you know where to look there is enough information out there on this young man to have a great feeling he'll be an immediate contributor to our team. Any of us that aren't on the Cowboys staff are just cheerleaders.

It's a dumb argument anyway. Somebody talking about Beasley before the draft has little connection to somebody talking about him immediately after. And when he then turned out to be a good player, that post-draft analysis wasn't then suddenly hollow.

Not everybody researches every player in college football for their fitness for the Cowboys roster. Lots of people go back and look after a player's been drafted. And there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

.

Ouch...that hurt.

 

[_sturt_]

I don't see where anything presented here has any bearing on what Switzer does one way or another.

Right.

And so, when I said, "It says nothing about any one player"... it would make sense that we agree on that specific point. I've said it more than once. To zero in on that as-if I'm contending that he's bound to be a bust is disingenuous, imo. I'm not.

While you're trying to talk about 1 out of every 3, I'm seeing a trend of hitting on those picks consistently for the past several years since a change was made in personnel with McClay. Anything prior to that is irrelevant.

It seems a wasted effort for numbers that aren't relevant to any argument one way or the other.

It may prove to be (ie, a trend). But for now, you don't know. You're only supposing because you're an optimistic kind-of person. And I, for one, appreciate that we have optimists like you around here. I loathe those boards you visit where everyone is a cynic and a pessimist, and always trying to aim low, seemingly in some pursuit of reassuring themselves that they're right more than those silly-azzed optimists.

But in your attempt to be optimistic, don't shill your credibility by claiming that averages mean nothing. No. They do. Like I said, "it gives us context." It gives us indication of what history suggests is the norm that we ought to expect to occur. It's a baseline.

And, again, be fair to my original point... the average doesn't tell us anything about what one player will achieve or won't achieve. It only suggests a likelihood. Again, it's just like when Mike Trout comes to bat... his past history says nothing about what he will do or won't do in his next plate appearance. But nonetheless, it is informative to know his batting average, because it suggests what we ought to expect.

But you know that already.

It's okay to be bullish on a given player's prospects. But it's also okay to be bullish while acknowledging the rest of the context. And, maybe just from where I sit, that seems better than not. He could end up being an even newer and better version of Cole Beasley. He also could end up being more like Sklyer Green. I share your high hopes, but I'm also careful to keep some sober recognition of what 4th rounders historically have achieved.

That's all.

 

[Dundalis]

Forgive me if I don't take the word of people who never mentioned the player before the draft. Not a single person here, minus that UNC homer who pimped every Tar Heel, has any credibility over Ryan Switzer. You didn't like him enough to talk about him before the draft. Your words are hollow after the draft. Don't care. Means nothing to me. You're just a cheerleader.

Odd comment. Anybody with something positive to say about anything could be classified as a cheerleader. It's not a slight against a persons opinion whatsoever. It's pretty obvious why Switzer was a fourth rounder, pure talent seems to play little part in it. And as far as I'm concerned this obsession with comparing players to other players picked in the same round is just lazy. Assess the player as an individual.

 

[dwreck27]

I would love it if Tapper could produce even close to Canty... Canty I always thought was an above average rotational player who could still bring the quality pressure without much dropoff

Switzer may produce but I dont think he gets much touches in this offense which ill hurt him.... Dez, Zeke, Beasley, Witten, and even Williams are all in the pecking order with almost guaranteed packages.... and spare me the jet sweep player that he will inherit from lucky

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

Switzer may produce but I dont think he gets much touches in this offense which ill hurt him.... Dez, Zeke, Beasley, Witten, and even Williams are all in the pecking order with almost guaranteed packages.... and spare me the jet sweep player that he will inherit from lucky

Day 1 Switzer is the athlete that Beas is ... and he almost quit football in his 1st training camp.