Why star NFL running backs have been devalued: What's next

[CCBoy]

Something feels wrong about what's happening for running backs in the NFL. As teams approach training camp later this month, four respected veteran rushers remain free agents, seemingly with little interest. Kareem Hunt wasn't re-signed by the Browns after his contract expired, while Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were released by their respective franchises to create salary cap space. None of the four has signed elsewhere.

Popular veterans getting cut toward the tail end of their careers is nothing new, but the age at which these players have become free agents stands out. Cook, Elliott and Hunt are 27. Fournette is 28. 27-year-old stars at other positions are years from being cut candidates. No team would dream of moving on from Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel or Budda Baker, each of whom is 27. Those 27-year-olds who play other positions are in the primes of their careers. Meanwhile, 27-year-old running backs are being portrayed as fossils hanging on to any hope of a meaningful NFL career for dear life.

Players are getting squeezed on both sides. With the first round of April's draft as an exception, draft capital used on running backs continues to fall. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs became the first running back duo to be selected in the top half of Round 1 since Fournette and Christian McCaffrey in 2017, a feat that happened far more often in the past. In 2022, no back came off the board in the top 32 picks, something that didn't happen even once over a nearly 50-year span between 1964 and 2012. Teams are using less draft capital on backs than ever before, and they appear to be more aggressive in moving on from their lead backs once they sign extensions.

A league that was once built around star backs dominating offensive workloads and competing for MVP awards now feels like something entirely different. When the Falcons and Lions drafted Robinson and Gibbs, they had to bring up the possibility of the backs as receivers around the formation to justify their choices. Backs who have received the franchise tag (such as Josh Jacobs this year) or who are approaching the time when they might earn their first extension (such as Najee Harris) are publicly wondering about whether running backs are getting a fair shake. It's reasonable to wonder whether star high school and college players should even consider playing running back when other positions offer more professional upside and stability...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...g-backs-devalued-next-2023-free-agency-future

 

[CCBoy]

Have teams gone too far in how they value the position?​

I don't believe so, because we haven't seen a running back play at a truly high level on his rookie deal and then have his team let that player leave in free agency with no repercussions. The class of 2017 was the test case for whether teams would be willing to move on from a talented back at the end of his rookie deal, but every one of the star backs in that class -- Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon -- landed an extension. Outside of maybe Cook's contract, did any of those deals age well?

You can make a case that teams should be willing to consider moving on from even the best backs at the end of their rookie deals. As I referenced here, virtually every one of those significant second contracts for running backs has failed to live up to expectations. NFL contracts are supposed to pay a player for what he's going to do as opposed to what he has done, and time after time, we've seen teams pay backs for the latter and get something significantly less over the second deal.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...cks-devalued-next-2023-free-agency-future#far

 

[CCBoy]

Are star backs not getting as much time as they did in previous years?​

With the help of Pro Football Reference, I tracked how many seasons they lasted as a primary back in the league from Year 4 onward.

The numbers in the past might not be as large as you think. In the 1970s, the backs averaged 3.7 seasons as a starter after Year 3. In the 1980s, that dropped to 3.3, but the number spiked to 5.7 seasons in the 1990s and stayed high at 4.7 during the first decade of the 21st century. The average over that four-decade span was 4.2 seasons.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...cks-devalued-next-2023-free-agency-future#far

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

The same thing is happening to running backs as is happening to linebackers and, to some degree, safeties.

They don't have much impact on the passing game, so there's no point in paying htem.

 

[Big_D]

Salary cap and 4 year contracts. What's funny is this is what the players fought for. Here we are. No team has the time or the money to depend on 1 RB. You just can't do it anymore. The Cowboys even tried to buck that trend and it was a recipe on what not to do and other teams were paying attention. Doesn't really matter how good you are at that point because the shelf life with 1 team is short and the committee approach is the new normal. When you see teams like KC winning with a 7th rounder.. teams rather attempt to duplicate that than pay big money for a position you simply can't pay big money to.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Something feels wrong about what's happening for running backs in the NFL. As teams approach training camp later this month, four respected veteran rushers remain free agents, seemingly with little interest. Kareem Hunt wasn't re-signed by the Browns after his contract expired, while Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were released by their respective franchises to create salary cap space. None of the four has signed elsewhere.

Popular veterans getting cut toward the tail end of their careers is nothing new, but the age at which these players have become free agents stands out. Cook, Elliott and Hunt are 27. Fournette is 28. 27-year-old stars at other positions are years from being cut candidates. No team would dream of moving on from Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel or Budda Baker, each of whom is 27. Those 27-year-olds who play other positions are in the primes of their careers. Meanwhile, 27-year-old running backs are being portrayed as fossils hanging on to any hope of a meaningful NFL career for dear life.

Players are getting squeezed on both sides. With the first round of April's draft as an exception, draft capital used on running backs continues to fall. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs became the first running back duo to be selected in the top half of Round 1 since Fournette and Christian McCaffrey in 2017, a feat that happened far more often in the past. In 2022, no back came off the board in the top 32 picks, something that didn't happen even once over a nearly 50-year span between 1964 and 2012. Teams are using less draft capital on backs than ever before, and they appear to be more aggressive in moving on from their lead backs once they sign extensions.

A league that was once built around star backs dominating offensive workloads and competing for MVP awards now feels like something entirely different. When the Falcons and Lions drafted Robinson and Gibbs, they had to bring up the possibility of the backs as receivers around the formation to justify their choices. Backs who have received the franchise tag (such as Josh Jacobs this year) or who are approaching the time when they might earn their first extension (such as Najee Harris) are publicly wondering about whether running backs are getting a fair shake. It's reasonable to wonder whether star high school and college players should even consider playing running back when other positions offer more professional upside and stability...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...g-backs-devalued-next-2023-free-agency-future

Its really simple. Backs fade out typically after 4 or 5 years. And you can get ones just as good as the old ones or better in the draft for cheaper and in later rounds.

A guy like Zeke doenst have a job because he isnt that good anymore.

 

[nalam]

Salary cap and 4 year contracts. What's funny is this is what the players fought for. Here we are. No team has the time or the money to depend on 1 RB. You just can't do it anymore. The Cowboys even tried to buck that trend and it was a recipe on what not to do and other teams were paying attention. Doesn't really matter how good you are at that point because the shelf life with 1 team is short and the committee approach is the new normal. When you see teams like KC winning with a 7th rounder.. teams rather attempt to duplicate that than pay big money for a position you simply can't pay big money to.

Not many teams can replicate K.C model , they dont have enough P Mahomes to go around , LOL

But , you are right RBs are injury risks and we cant rely on one RB, even Pollard pre injury was not effective against SF but after he went down it was pathetic .

 

[Doomsday77]

It's all cyclical. The passing game has taken over in the NFL. Everyone knows this right? But before this "era" the running game was first and foremost AKA Emmitt, Thurman Thomas, and then T.D. and so on. This lasted for quite a while. Then we had the Bret Favres and John Elways and Peyton Mannings of the world take over. I would be willing to bet all of your money that in 5 years we are back drafting the RB1's.
I might be getting my years wrong but you can see the trends. Also, point #2- just read this today and it makes sense...those 4 that the Op mentioned might be waiting until training camp starts knowing that they need to take it easy before the real games begin. This IMO is the biggest factor. Meaning they don't want to sign right now.

 

[KJJ]

Star RBs are being devalued for several reasons. They’re all looking to get paid a lot of money and they have a short shelf life. The NFL is a passing league and most teams are using two RBs. Finding a good RB is much easier to find than other positions.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

All the defensive players have gotten so much bigger and explosive now. You're seeing 280 lb defensive ends run 4.5s...and 340 lb DTackles run 4.8's and post crazy "jump out of the pool" videos. They are dangerous guys tackling these RBs.

Running Backs take far more beating...and aren't really getting the same protection QBs and WRs are from the new sissy rules.

A guy like Zeke...even now....probably would still be effective 30 years ago against the athletes that used to play back then. But now when you have a 6'5 275 lb dEnd that looks like Thor and can run as fast, or even faster, than running backs can.... once you lose that top gear ur done, whereas 30 years ago even when they lost their top end speed and cutting ability they could still out-athlete the defenders. Not anymore

 

[conner01]

The same thing is happening to running backs as is happening to linebackers and, to some degree, safeties.

They don't have much impact on the passing game, so there's no point in paying htem.

I think that’s a big part of it, especially RB because they have a short career production wise

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

That article by Bill Barnwell is a long read, but excellent.

 

[Praxit]

..its not a running league anymore. More like Hybrid. passing/run options.

Zeke was smart and got paid. May even not play anymore.

 

[rags747]

Hopefully Zeke was smart with his money, I’m thinking he was

 

[Vtwin]

In today's NFL it just doesn't make sense to pay top dollar for a RB. You have to have a great passing game, and the o-line to support that, to succeed. You also have to have a solid running game, but with the former in place you can do well with drafting a quality, young and hungry RB and then rinse and repeat when he plays out his rookie deal.

Combine that with the risk of investing in a position that takes so much punishment and yea, Mamas don't let your babies grow up to be running backs.

 

[dsturgeon]

I bet the WR #3 position is making more money right now compared to what they were making when rb's were valued highly.

All it could take is a decline in league wide qb play to where the running game and defense is valued more. Then rb's will start making more

 

[Typhus]

Something feels wrong about what's happening for running backs in the NFL. As teams approach training camp later this month, four respected veteran rushers remain free agents, seemingly with little interest. Kareem Hunt wasn't re-signed by the Browns after his contract expired, while Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were released by their respective franchises to create salary cap space. None of the four has signed elsewhere.

Popular veterans getting cut toward the tail end of their careers is nothing new, but the age at which these players have become free agents stands out. Cook, Elliott and Hunt are 27. Fournette is 28. 27-year-old stars at other positions are years from being cut candidates. No team would dream of moving on from Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel or Budda Baker, each of whom is 27. Those 27-year-olds who play other positions are in the primes of their careers. Meanwhile, 27-year-old running backs are being portrayed as fossils hanging on to any hope of a meaningful NFL career for dear life.

Players are getting squeezed on both sides. With the first round of April's draft as an exception, draft capital used on running backs continues to fall. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs became the first running back duo to be selected in the top half of Round 1 since Fournette and Christian McCaffrey in 2017, a feat that happened far more often in the past. In 2022, no back came off the board in the top 32 picks, something that didn't happen even once over a nearly 50-year span between 1964 and 2012. Teams are using less draft capital on backs than ever before, and they appear to be more aggressive in moving on from their lead backs once they sign extensions.

A league that was once built around star backs dominating offensive workloads and competing for MVP awards now feels like something entirely different. When the Falcons and Lions drafted Robinson and Gibbs, they had to bring up the possibility of the backs as receivers around the formation to justify their choices. Backs who have received the franchise tag (such as Josh Jacobs this year) or who are approaching the time when they might earn their first extension (such as Najee Harris) are publicly wondering about whether running backs are getting a fair shake. It's reasonable to wonder whether star high school and college players should even consider playing running back when other positions offer more professional upside and stability...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...g-backs-devalued-next-2023-free-agency-future

Kickers, kickers shouldn't make more than 2k a game.

 

[Cowboys5217]

I heard a radio chat the other day while driving. It was either The Ticket or The Fan, and they were speculating that the RB position itself will be replaced by tweener WRs who can run the ball effectively from behind the line.

The traditional FB is almost extinct, and now the traditional RB has entered endangered territory. The game has changed so much in the last 40 years.

 

[Vinnie2u]

Analytics drove the nail in the RB coffin...

 

[plasticman]

During the 15 year period of 1965 to 1979 there was a total of 70 RB's drafted in the first round. There were 34 of them drafted in the top ten.

During the 15 year period of 2005 to 2019 there were 33 RB's drafted in the first round with 13 of them drafted top ten.

In just one four year period, 1969 to 1972 the Cowboys drafted 3 RB's in the first round and 1 in the 2nd round. They drafted a RB in the first round in back to back seasons, 1969 and 1979.

This is how much the NFL has changed and how priorities have been shifted. The opposite effect is that far more WR's are being drafted now in the first round as opposed to the earlier time period.

The year 1979 is significant because that was the year that the NFL changed a large number of rules in favor of increasing the importance of the passing game. "In the grasp" was adopted to protect quarterbacks. The amount of physicality that DB's could use on WR's was radically reduced.

Naturally, when some aspect of a game have rule changes, then it changes the significance of the personnel being used for that particular aspect.

I can't stress how much the rules to protect the quarterback has changed fundamental principles of the game and the entire NFL. QB's have far less fear when forced to throw against a physical defensive line. Receivers no longer have to fear leaving the ground to make an acrobatic catch. Unprotected receivers used to be fair game for defenses.

This is further illustrated by the prolific increases in NFL passer ratings. In 1978, Roger Staubach led all QB's with a passer rating of 84.9. Contrast that with Aaron Rodger's 2020 passer rating of 121.5.

These changes have also led to role changes for some positions.

From that same period, 1965 to 1979, there were a total of 14 times that a RB had 200 carries and 50 or more receptions in a season. Half of those came from two players.

From 2005 to 2019 the number of RB's with the previously mentioned numbers mushroomed to 74 players.

The reason I believe that getting 1000 yards in a season is still a significant achievement is because RB's now have less opportunity to achieve this. In 1965 to 1979, teams ran the ball an average of 53.2% of the time. From 2005 to 2019 that percentage has dropped to 42.6%.

Defenses have evolved as a result of these changes. DE's with speed are preferred over DE's with size. LB squads include more players capable of defending the pass against more athletic TE's and RB coming out of the backfield.. Teams are shifting more to a 4-2 defense with an emphasis on a third DB capable of defending a slot receiver.

In 2014 to 2016 two different Dallas Cowboys RB's led the league in rushing yardage. The O-line was certainly elite and these RB were talented but another reason was that the Cowboys took the NFL by surprise. The defenses around the league were built placing an emphasis on defending the pass. They were not physicaly equipped to handle an elite rushing attack.

The Cowboys were so successful running the ball that they were able to help a questionable defense by controlling the clock. Unfortunately the Cowboys did not understand this huge advantage as Garrett continued his goal of creating a Coryell type offense. The window closed on a unique opportunity to use an offense that capitalized on doing the opposite of what NFL defenses were created to defend against.

As far as the value of a RB today, that depends on his versatility when it comes to pass blocking and receiving. The "Zeke" type of RB is an antique in today's NFL and it's the McCaffereys that will have a better chance of a longer career. This is, again, one of the reasons that the Cowboys are intrigued with the potential of Deuce and Turpin as pass catchers