Why star NFL running backs have been devalued: What's next

[FuzzyLumpkins]

This is an odd list. Sure they can cover some TEs and RBs, but they aren't ever asked to cover WRs in man.

As much man as we played last year and the nature of motion and formations this is just wrong.

 

[JohnBoy]

It's all cyclical. The passing game has taken over in the NFL. Everyone knows this right? But before this "era" the running game was first and foremost AKA Emmitt, Thurman Thomas, and then T.D. and so on. This lasted for quite a while. Then we had the Bret Favres and John Elways and Peyton Mannings of the world take over. I would be willing to bet all of your money that in 5 years we are back drafting the RB1's.
I might be getting my years wrong but you can see the trends. Also, point #2- just read this today and it makes sense...those 4 that the Op mentioned might be waiting until training camp starts knowing that they need to take it easy before the real games begin. This IMO is the biggest factor. Meaning they don't want to sign right now.

Very true. Defenses are already adjusting to the current high-octane passing game, and at the highschool through college levels we are likely going to start seeing better CBs, Safeties that will then make the passing game that much harder. Which will force offenses to go back to the running game. Unless the NFL passes more rules that keep favoring the passing game, which is also partly how we got here in the first place.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

As much man as we played last year and the nature of motion and formations this is just wrong.

They matched personnel so corners covered WRs - it's the entire function of running almost entirely nickel packages.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

They matched personnel so corners covered WRs - it's the entire function of running almost entirely nickel packages.

And eveything works out as planned every snap amirite? smh

There is what is planned and then there is a reality of motion, pick plays, and route combinations.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

And eveything works out as planned every snap amirite? smh

There is what is planned and then there is a reality of motion, pick plays, and route combinations.

So in other words they aren't asked to do it. Like I said.

 

[Whyjerry]

Salary Cap + League rules to promote passing + bigger faster stronger DL and LBs + well defined production arcs that crater in their 20s + “Genius of the day” college coaches that play arena football (Lincoln Riley) + a mentally deficient 24/7 football media that thinks every game must be 45-41 + fans that have been brainwashed into believing games need to be 45-41 = a devalued RB position

 

[DuncanIso]

Give me an elite RB and a decent OL.

WIll win many football games.

 

[CCBoy]

The Dallas Cowboys committed to Tony Pollard as their lead running back for the 2023 season when they used their franchise tag on him, but his future with the team beyond this year is not guaranteed.

Pollard and the Cowboys failed to reach an agreement on a long-term contract extension prior to Monday's 4 p.m. deadline, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, meaning the 26-year-old will play this season on his one-year franchise tender before becoming a free agent next offseason.

Pollard is scheduled to make $10.1 million under the franchise tag, which he signed in March. With Dallas handing Pollard the reins as the lead back, the team released star running back Ezekiel Elliott earlier this offseason to open up $10.9 million in cap space.

bleacherreport

Cowboys Rumors: Tony Pollard Doesn't Agree to New Contract Ahead of Deadline​

DORIC SAM


While Pollard may not have reached the long-term deal he was seeking, it's clear that he will be a focal point of the Cowboys offense and one of the keys to helping the team achieve some elusive postseason success.

 

[CCBoy]

The NFL's deadline to sign franchise-tagged players to long-term deals came and went on Monday, with three of the top running backs in the league not getting the contract extensions they were seeking from their respective teams.

The New York Giants' Saquon Barkley, Las Vegas Raiders' Josh Jacobs and Dallas Cowboys' Tony Pollard all failed to reach agreements on long-term deals, putting them in position to play the 2023 season on the $10.1 million franchise tender. The only position group with a franchise tender value lower than that is kickers and punters.

However, Pollard is the only one of the three to sign his franchise tag, with all indications pointing to Barkley and Jacobs holding out of training camp and possibly beyond. All three of them can become unrestricted free agents in the 2024 offseason.

Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, More RBs Issue Support for Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs​

DORIC SAM

The Actors Guild is on strike.

 

[CCBoy]

Very true. Defenses are already adjusting to the current high-octane passing game, and at the highschool through college levels we are likely going to start seeing better CBs, Safeties that will then make the passing game that much harder. Which will force offenses to go back to the running game. Unless the NFL passes more rules that keep favoring the passing game, which is also partly how we got here in the first place.

Focus is increasing on passing and defensing it...but over compensate any direction then the alternatives over come you. Running is far from done because it does the job and wins advantage.

Control of clock eliminated drastic and large differences in score.

 

[CCBoy]

Why? The Cowboys are just coming out of paying Ezekiel Elliott a $90 million extension that included $50 million guaranteed. Elliott will still count $5.82 million this season and $6 million next year against the cap. They were not going to pay huge money for another running back.

And Pollard, who had a Pro Bowl season in 2022, paid the price for being a running back in a time when the running back market is drying up.

So what now?

It’s highly likely this will be Pollard’s final season with the Cowboys -- and it would have little to do with Pollard and everything else to do with the Cowboys dealing with their salary cap in 2024 and beyond.

https://www.espn.com/blog/dallas-co...be-tony-pollards-last-season-with-the-cowboys

 

[CCBoy]

1,000 yard Dallas rushers since 1995 and total yardage by starter quarterback under coach for that season:

1995 Emmitt Smith 1778 - Switzer Troy Aikman 3304
1996 Emmitt Smith 1204 - Switzer Troy Aikman 3126
1997 Emmitt Smith 1074 - Switzer Troy Aikman 3282
1998 Emmitt Smith 1332 - Chan Gailey Troy Aikman 2330
1999 Emmitt Smith 1397 - Chan Gailey Troy Aikman 2960
2000 Emmitt Smith 1203 - Dave Campo Troy Aikman 1692 (Randall Cunningham replaced)
2001 Emmitt Smith 1021 - Dave Campo Quincy Carter 1072 (Leaf, Wright)
2002 Emmitt Smith - Dave Campo Chad Hutchinson 1555
2003 Troy Hambrick - Bill Parcells Quincy Carter 3302
2004 Julius Jones - Bill Parcells Vinny Testaverde 3532
2005 Julius Jones - Bill Parcells Drew Bledsoe 3639
2006 Julius Jones 1084 - Bill Parcells Tony Romo 2903
2007 Marion Barber - Wade Phillips Tony Romo 4211
2008 Marion Barber - Wade Phillips Tony Romo 3448
2009 Marion Barber - Wade Phillips Tony Romo 4483
2010 Marion Barber - Wade Phillips Jon Kitna 2365
2011 DeMarco Murray - Jason Garrett Tony Romo 4184
2012 DeMarco Murray - Jason Garrett Tony Romo 4903
2013 DeMarco Murray 1121 - Jason Garrett Tony Romo 3828
2014 DeMarco Murray 1845 - Jason Garrett Tony Romo 3705
2015 Darren McFadden 1089 - Jason Garrett Matt Cassel 1276 (Romo injured)
2016 Ezekiel Elliott 1631 - Jason Garrett Dak Prescott 3667 (Romo injured)
2017 Ezekiel Elliott - Jason Garrett Dak Prescott 3324
2018 Ezekiel Elliott 1434 - Jason Garrett Dak Prescott 3885
2019 Ezekiel Elliott 1357 - Jason Garrett Dak Prescott 4902
2020 Ezekiel Elliott - Mike McCarthy Andy Dalton 2170 (game 5 Prescott out)
2021 Ezekiel Elliott 1002 - Mike McCarthy Dak Prescott 4449 (Prescott signed extension)
2022 Tony Pollard 1007 - Mike McCarthy Dak Prescott 2860/Cooper Rush

Those were the eye mark stats for each Head coach since Jimmy Johnson.

 

[CCBoy]

The workhorse for San Francisco, McCafferty, only averaged 19 carries a game last season!

 

[jsb357]

With RB's still very valuable at the college level there are plenty young healthy
RB's to chose from thus easier to replace at the pro level.

Once your position is easy to replace, your perceived value drops.

 

[Einstein]

It's all cyclical. The passing game has taken over in the NFL. Everyone knows this right? But before this "era" the running game was first and foremost AKA Emmitt, Thurman Thomas, and then T.D. and so on. This lasted for quite a while. Then we had the Bret Favres and John Elways and Peyton Mannings of the world take over. I would be willing to bet all of your money that in 5 years we are back drafting the RB1's.
I might be getting my years wrong but you can see the trends. Also, point #2- just read this today and it makes sense...those 4 that the Op mentioned might be waiting until training camp starts knowing that they need to take it easy before the real games begin. This IMO is the biggest factor. Meaning they don't want to sign right now.

Sorry, but I have to call this post out... T.D. IS Tony Dorsett. please type out Terrell Davis, lol...

 

[MyFairLady]

The game is all about money. Give a running back 60 million dollars and you have completed their quest. If you think you will have the same player the next day you are dreaming. These guys do not play for legacy. It is all about cashing in.

 

[MyFairLady]

Teams would happily pay an RB 20 million per year if that players stats looked like 2016 Super Hero Zeke every year. Teams want nothing to do with bums like 2022 Fat Zeke.

 

[glimmerman]

It’s become more of a passing league. Even though a balanced attack works better for us. Teams would rather have a couple RBs with some talent than 1 that’s elite. Pay 3 for the price of 1.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

it was bound to happen, because of all the rule changes. The league decided a few years back, that more scoring is needed, to bring in more fans. scoring generates excitement and even the casual fans who may not understand football, can participate and celebrate. its all about more money. its all about growing the pie. That may sound negative, but its not intended to. so with more scoring as a goal, the league became more pass friendly. more passing, faster pace, more exciting plays and more scoring, thus the running game became devalued and QBs values went through the roof.

further, teams realized that they don't need a star RB and pay him loads of money (haven't we experienced that). They realized that a RB by committee works (see Philly, chicago, Ravens, Dallas) and actually works better, because you can have a pass catching RB, which adds to your passing game. With more RBs coming out of college from spread offenses, with more QBs coming from option offenses and their ability to run, the RB further became a devalued position. Given the cap, QBS values going through the roof, then something had to give and that was the RB position. I don't think we will ever see another Emmitt Smith, as RBs also have a shorter lifespan in the NFL, as we have seen with Zeke, Cook, etc. and we have also learned its one of the easiest positions in the NFL to replace. you can actually have a rookie who can have huge impact on the team. have that player for 4-5 years and move and draft another one. its one way of managing the cap.

so not surprised to see the RB position being devalued as the game evolves. we saw FB position disappear. we probably won't see the RB position disappear, but doubt if we see most of them get large second contracts.

 

[CCBoy]

It’s become more of a passing league. Even though a balanced attack works better for us. Teams would rather have a couple RBs with some talent than 1 that’s elite. Pay 3 for the price of 1.

Teams will then create advantages and a young and top level runner gives game advantages. It all depends on offensive line and dependability of a quarterback to still win.